iCharts Discussions

[vinay28]

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Monday (05/01/14) and beyond

Supports are at about 8364, 8319, 8290 and 8237 while resistances are at about 8442, 8455 and 8487. A previous unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8284. Three +WWs can give about 8445, 8482 (once above 8400) and 8585. (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 8221 (once below 8300) and 8000 (once below 8383) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A ST can give about 8600 unless nifty breaches 8190. A bullish flag can give much higher levels unless killed below 8115.

Nifty rose sharply to close just below 8400. Daily candle is a big, bullish Marubuzo as was implied by Thursday's NR 7 day. However, the mild bearish div persists on daily and weekly and will not go unless nifty goes above 8547. It seems unlikely in immediate term and hence a moderate fall is likely next week to reduce premium to 30-40 level. Also, 20 dma remains below 50 dma and retracement to at least 8311/8279 (as of now) is possible. If nifty breaks 8180, we can see more fall. However, the bullish div that developed over last few months remains and only a sharp upmove after a correction can save nifty. A close above 8589 can lead to a new high. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.

[vinay28]

H/L of some indices and scrips in today's (3/1) mock trading

NS - 9237.20 / 8306.15
NF - 8725 / 8250
BN - 21027 / 18026
Axis Bank - 565.20 / 463
ICICI Bank - 416.60 / 326.10
SBIN - 346.75 / 283.75
Cairn - 265.50 / 220
RIL - 974 / 797
Tata Steel - 451.15 / 370.10
BEML - 939 / 787.30
Canara Bank - 493.05 / 405

[saurabhkurichh]

nicely sailing for nifty

[vinay28]

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Tuesday (06/01/14) and beyond

Supports are at about 8365, 8340, 8325, 8314, 8302 and 8269 while resistances are at about 8407, 8429, 8466 and 8478. A previous unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8284. A number of +WWs can give 8500+ if nifty sustains above 8450. A -WW can give about 8330 (if below 8409) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A ST can give about 8600 unless nifty breaks down.

Nifty fell again to close above 8350 and further fall seems possible. The mild bearish div persists on daily and weekly and will not go unless nifty goes above 8547. Further fall is likely to reduce premium to about 30. Retracement to at least 8330/8292 is possible. In addition, 20 dma remains below 50 dma. If nifty sustains below 8385 for many days, bigger fall is possible provided nifty closes below 8248 first. However, the bullish div that developed over last few months remains and only a sharp upmove after a correction can save nifty. A close above 8589 can lead to a new high. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.

[vinay28]

This is NOT an attempt to confuse but if you do get confused, it's at your own risk!

Chart of daily nifty shows some interesting things. (a) 3 ema crossed below 15 on both NS and NF and has turned bearish, (b) nifty closed just around 100dma. If it now closes below 100dma, it may mean 100-300 point fall, (c) gap at 8029, (d) daily close below 8029, particularly after a breach of 7961 can be bad, and (e) bullish div developed since Oct can not be ignored.

I feel all is not lost yet and we may at the most see a lower low (may be 8040-50) and then a reversal with a hammer like that on 26/12.

If not, there are a few -WWs that can give 7950-7800 and lower and a HnS that can give about 7650. Fortunately, since feb, nifty has withstood many -WW and HnS threats.

[vinay28]

Further to previous chart, this chart gives a fear that this time it is determined to break long term supports, thanks to global trouble.

[vinay28]

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Wednesday (07/01/14) and beyond

Supports are at about 8090, 8049, 7972 and 7953 while resistances are at about 8145, 8189, 8238, 8270, 8291 and 8341. A previous unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8029. Four +WWs can give 8280 (once above 8173), 8344 (if above 8055), 8455 (if above 8092) and 8471 (once above 8137) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 7964 (if below 8389) and 7811 (if below 8200) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 7675 if nifty breaks below 8050. A bearish flag can give lower level unless killed above 8185.

Nifty fell sharply to close below 8150 thereby confirming the bearish div developed last week and is very bearish. However, a bullish div has now developed and we may see a reversal soon. Also, nifty closed slightly below 100 dma and one more close below it can result in more fall. A close below 8029 with a breach of 7961 may be very bad in short term. Only a break of 8322 on the up will give some hope to bulls. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.

[vinay28]

Nifty closed on the TL from 16/12 today. If it sustains below today's low, it will break down though there are supports around 8015/7980. I feel it depends on how world markets fare after today's FOMC outcome. If outcome is good, we may see a gap up and an island reversal as it happened on 18/12. In such a case, the previous high (~8446) is resistance as of now.

Possibly major breakdown below above levels.

[chandrujimrc]

Dear Vinay,

I think this time mkt will go down towards 200Dma.This the third time testing 100 Dma and closed below it and more over Nifty spot in H & S pattern.

[vinay28]

[chandrujimrc]

Thanks Vinay.

[vinay28]

[vinay28]

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Thursday (08/01/14) and beyond

Supports are at about 8088, 8061, 8035, 8015, 7980 and 7953 while resistances are at about 8107, 8148, 8192, 8208, 8270 and 8291. A previous unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8029. Four +WWs can give 8231 (if above 8084), 8348 (once above 8150), 8460 (if above 8059) and 8492 (once above 8141) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 8018 and 7935 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 7675 if nifty breaks below 8050. A bearish flag can give lower level unless killed above 8225.

Nifty fell a bit but manage to close just above 8100 and is still bearish. It also closed below 100dma and one (or two) more consecutive close(s) below 100 dma (presently 8132) can be very bad and can take it towards 200 dma (presently 76xx). Daily candle is a doji indicating uncertainty, perhaps due to FOMC on Wednesday night. A +ve sentiment generated by FOMC can result in a gap up open and island reversal. On the other hand, a close below 8029 with a breach of 7961 may signal further fall. Only a break of 8446 on the up may give some hope to bulls. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.

[chandrujimrc]

Dear vinay,
Except March 2014 close of 6646 every thing cleared.Without clearing Oct14 close of 8166 mkt went upto 8668 but it again cleared the oct close on dec 16.So every thing cleared.

[vinay28]