iCharts Discussions

manojkr78 · Green Belt Joined: 07 Mar 2011 Posts: 1014

Vinay,

thanks for the observation. Monthly RSI 14 at or below 30 is very good sign for reversal (15-20%). Historically this (below 30)has happen only when downtrend continues for 12-20 months form highs. Now we are in 11 th month, we will know in a month or two.

manoj

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Tuesday (12/01/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7551/01, 7456/41 and 7394 while resistances are at about 7593, 7608/19/33/68/75, 7702 and 7721. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower sides are at about 7741 and 7454 resp. Two +WWs can give about 7642 (if above 7550) and 7755 (if above 7572) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 7390 if nifty sustains below 7737.

Nifty rose sharply after a huge gap down open and though it reacted later, still managed to close above 52 week closing low of 7558. There is now a +ve div and we may see further rise. However, volume was -ve and rise may be limited. But, bullish div is still strong though it can give results only if persistent buying emerges. What's more, RSI 5 is well below 30 on monthly chart and nifty has always rose by a huge margin in the past when this happened. Hence, it is likely that bottom is nearby if not already made. Nifty now has to close above 7762 to begin with while a close below 7558 can bring pain. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Trade carefully due to corporate results season.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Wednesday (13/01/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7483/66/56/25 and 7394 while resistances are at about 7535/58, 7617/35/66/75 and 7710. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower sides are at about 7741 and 7454 resp. Three +WWs can give about 7563 (if above 7500), 7611 (if above 7488) and 7644 (if above 7547) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 7390 if nifty sustains below 7737.

Nifty fell again and just managed to close above 7500 but a new 52 week closing low. The +ve and bullish div sustains though it can give results only if persistent buying emerges. It is likely that bottom is nearby if not already made. Nifty now has to close above 7762 to begin with while a close below 7454 can bring more pain. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Trade carefully due to corporate results season.

ank_s · White Belt Joined: 26 Mar 2014 Posts: 8

Seems today will be a DOJI.Also mkt traded to a new low which is lower than last 3 days, failed to hold that low and closed in thr upper 10% of todays range.

Is it an indication for reversal, may be for a short time.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Thursday (14/01/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7523, 7478/56 and 7394 while resistances are at about 7589, 7608/39/75/95, 7702/37 and 7829. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower sides are at about 7741 and 7229 resp. Three +WWs can give about 7614/68 (if above 7481) and 7644 (if above 7546) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 7507 (if below 7637) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 7390 if nifty sustains below 7737.

Nifty fell sharply after a big gap up open, made a new 52 week low and filled the gap created on 14/7/14. However, it reversed viciously to make a higher high for the day and closed above 7550. Daily candle is a long legged doji cum hammer with strong +ve volume and +ve div and we may see further rise. Persistent buying is required for much higher levels. But, it is likely that a temporary bottom is made. Nifty now has to close above 7602/11 to begin with while a close below 7510 can start a fresh fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Trade carefully due to corporate results season.

amitagg · Black Belt Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Monday (18/01/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7420/05, 7394/85, 7335 and 7315 while resistances are at about 7462/71/80, 7513/32 and 7590. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower sides are at about 7741 and 7229 resp. Three +WWs can give about 7600 (if above 7452), 7609 (if above 7405) and 7620 (if above 7475) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS being posted for many days is likely to give its target of about 7375.

Nifty tanked to close below 7450, at lowest close since 04/06/14. The +ve and bullish div are strong and prices mouth watering but only persistent buying can cause substantial recovery. Otherwise the slide will continue. Nifty has to close above 7602/11 to begin with. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

A Holistic View of Current Indian Equity Market

DKDY · White Belt Joined: 24 Feb 2015 Posts: 9

Awesome analysis, just add US election topic pls.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Tuesday (19/01/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7334/22/07/01 and 7253 while resistances are at about 7369/87, 7400/34/70/93 and 7514. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower sides are at about 7741 and 7229 resp. Three +WWs can give about 7449 (if above 7350), 7485 (if above 7367) and 7607 (if above 7400) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).

Nifty tanked again to close below 7350 and looks scary. The +ve and bullish div are strong and prices mouth watering but only persistent buying can cause substantial recovery. Otherwise the slide will continue. Nifty has to close above 7611 to begin with. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Wednesday (20/01/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7418, 7394/71/28/19 and 7307 while resistances are at about 7466/80/93, 7502/22/56/75 and 7591. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower sides are at about 7741/7351 resp. Two +WWs can give about 7502 (if above 7401) and 7608 (if above 7416) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 7377 (if below 7488) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).

Nifty rose sharply after a gap up open and closed well above 7400 but is not out of the woods yet. However, daily candle is a bullish Harami and we may see further rise. The +ve and bullish div are strong and prices mouth watering but only persistent buying can cause substantial recovery. Otherwise the slide will continue. Nifty has to close above 7559 to begin with while a close below 7351 can be bad in near term. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.

amitagg · Black Belt Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Thursday (21/01/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7418, 7394/71/28/19 and 7307 while resistances are at about 7466/80/93, 7502/22/56/75 and 7591. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower sides are at about 7741/7351 resp. Two +WWs can give about 7490 (if above 7279) and 7619 (if above 7382) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).

Nifty fell sharply in spite of a big gap down open but recovered to close above 7300. There seems no end to the fall. Daily candle is a doji cum outside bar indicating uncertainty. The +ve and bullish div are strong and prices mouth watering but only persistent buying can cause substantial recovery. Otherwise the slide will continue. Nifty has to close above 7559 to begin with while a close below 7229 can be bad in short term. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.

amitagg · Black Belt Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559

In Dec we were contemplating 9000 when it was 8300 and now just after one month 7200
Now it is 6600/6400 or 7800/8000? Has to be 8000 I would assume.
Or neither!!!!!!!

In such times do the funds go to cash or just face redemption or what. Why is DII action always opposite to FII.

Why is it they don't add up to support good price levels..... It forecast bad.....
Or they want better levels

Or may be expect timing to kill the longs still...... If the market has to spend many many more months in 6500-7800 region.....!