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Nifty View - January Series 2014 |
riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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Post: #421  Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:05 pm Post subject: |
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can u notice anything funny!!! 6300 ce hasnt broken its low but NF making consistent new lows!!!
wonder why so, ? shldnt it be trading at 2/3..? with every 3/4 jump in NF, call jumps by 1 re... strange...
looks like some big guys are trapped.. and not letting it fall further... |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #422 Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:08 pm Post subject: |
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| riteshucha wrote: | can u notice anything funny!!! 6300 ce hasnt broken its low but NF making consistent new lows!!!
wonder why so, ? shldnt it be trading at 2/3..? with every 3/4 jump in NF, call jumps by 1 re... strange...
looks like some big guys are trapped.. and not letting it fall further... |
Yeh could be that or just gamble buying in low value options before RBI Policy, just like it happens before INFY results. |
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riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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| Post: #423 Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:12 pm Post subject: |
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vinay, remember i asked abt 6200 PE at 10/- on thurday... had bought just 2 lots.. sold today at 81/-...  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #424 Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:22 pm Post subject: |
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| riteshucha wrote: | | vinay, remember i asked abt 6200 PE at 10/- on thurday... had bought just 2 lots.. sold today at 81/-... |
good for you. By the way 6300ce is now entering what is called gambler's den for expiry. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #425 Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:23 pm Post subject: |
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| vix has reached a resistance zone. |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #426 Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:20 pm Post subject: |
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| Vinay28:Your views on the nifty going forward...especially for the month of february |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #427 Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 7:28 pm Post subject: |
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| yashrahul wrote: | | Vinay28:Your views on the nifty going forward...especially for the month of february |
yashrahul - I have already posted some of my views in last few days along with charts, patterns and levels. Breach of 6330 again sealed "immediate term" fate of bulls. With that distribution became clear on 24/01. But just to reiterate, bullish trend is still intact when one takes a long term view even if nifty goes down much more e.g. say 5900. Generally speaking, this bullish view will change depending on higher tf charts as they develop. Sentimentally, breach of 200dma is one concept but nifty has quickly bounced from there many times in the last 2 years except during aug-sept'13 and can not be relied upon with conviction.
As far as Feb goes, buying around tmrw's first hour low seems a good idea IMHO. Only thing is to know when the low is happening i.e. how to know when to buy if the low occurs early in the first hour. Also, deciding SL for that buy is dicey as of now. Last few days of an expiry distorts the chart in my opinion. Feb could be +ve if Jan closes above about 6260 assuming today's low is held.
I know my reply is vague but present situation is like that and I am hoping that nifty doesn't break today's low again or close below 6130, to prevent further fall. By the way, I have been tracking product of vix and pcr for many months and, though not always successful, it seems to imply a +ve tmrw. I could be wrong. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #428 Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 7:36 pm Post subject: |
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I am also of the view that any move down to 5900 / 5700(if that happens) in feb would make March April May positive....
Also for past few months 6142 .(Previous top before move down to 5700 and then 6415) .....and 6209 have become "pivot levels"....
And market is finding higher base (5800, 5950, 6030, 6142)everytime (except remaining above 6260 consistently which is the "early" bull pivot for me...and hence the breakdown in huge gap from that level even today)
And any reasons would pop up if market shoots up from here...
Also 6142 is important level to go in one move down so would expect +ve move tomorrow also... |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #429 Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 7:42 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | yashrahul wrote: | | Vinay28:Your views on the nifty going forward...especially for the month of february |
yashrahul - I have already posted some of my views in last few days along with charts, patterns and levels. Breach of 6330 again sealed "immediate term" fate of bulls. With that distribution became clear on 24/01. But just to reiterate, bullish trend is still intact when one takes a long term view even if nifty goes down much more e.g. say 5900. Generally speaking, this bullish view will change depending on higher tf charts as they develop. Sentimentally, breach of 200dma is one concept but nifty has quickly bounced from there many times in the last 2 years except during aug-sept'13 and can not be relied upon with conviction.
As far as Feb goes, buying around tmrw's first hour low seems a good idea IMHO. Only thing is to know when the low is happening i.e. how to know when to buy if the low occurs early in the first hour. Also, deciding SL for that buy is dicey as of now. Last few days of an expiry distorts the chart in my opinion. Feb could be +ve if Jan closes above about 6260 assuming today's low is held.
I know my reply is vague but present situation is like that and I am hoping that nifty doesn't break today's low again or close below 6130, to prevent further fall. By the way, I have been tracking product of vix and pcr for many months and, though not always successful, it seems to imply a +ve tmrw. I could be wrong. |
thanks |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #430 Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 7:54 pm Post subject: |
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incidentally, among the many things I track due to my interests, I also track a system based on, believe it or not, Carnatic music scale. As per that, for tmrw, it's a short below 6232NS (Agni level). I am giving below various levels if you are interested. Otherwise just ignore
S2(Shadjam) - 7936
N2(Kakali Nishadham) - 7440
N1(Kaisiki Nishadham) - 7146
D2(Chatusruti Daivatham) - 6696
D1(Sudha Daivatham) - 6355
P (Panchamam) - 5952
M2(Prati Madhyamam)- 5642
M1(Sudha Madhyamam) - 5286
G2(Anthara Gandharam)- 4960
G1(Gandharam) - 4759
R2(Chatusruti Rishabham) - 4464
R1(Sudha Rishabham) - 4232
S1(Shadjam) - 3968
Nifty is stuck in the two levels marked in bold Red. Check out other levels on charts. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #431 Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 8:04 pm Post subject: |
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| for whatever it is worth |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #432 Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 8:31 pm Post subject: |
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Supports are at about 6075 and 5995 while resistances are at about 6147, 6183, 6225, 6270 and 6300. Previous gaps on the upper and lower side are at about 6267 and 6091/57 resp. 50 dma is at about 6219. Four +WWs can give about 6310/6345/6385/6425 (once above 6130) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned as of now).
Nifty fell sharply in spite of a big gap down and closed below 6150 and 50 dma and is clearly bearish. A close below about 6130 will cause further fall. However, there is a mild +ve div on lower TFs and it may cause a mild recovery. Nifty will have to close well above about 6283 to ensure further rise. Oil price rise and/or INR fall can affect market adversely and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. Bad global cues can cause severe fall. VIX too can go up sharply and play spoil sport. Trade carefully, this being an expiry week. |
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saumya12
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
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| Post: #433 Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 8:55 pm Post subject: |
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| saumya12 wrote: |
Now, a new bearish pattern is in formation,
If NS reaches 6155 levels and revert for few points (may be 100 or so max) only to fall further. The target of this fall may be around 5900
The cancellation point of this pattern is about 6400, may be little more.
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Sorry friends
In my yesterdays post
I made some calculation errors
Please read the above paragraph as corrected below
The new/corrected values are in bold.
Now, a new bearish pattern is in formation,
If NS reaches 6155 levels and revert for few points (may be around 6265 or so max) only to fall further. The target of this fall may be around 5950-40
The cancellation point of this pattern is about 6360, may be little more. |
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saumya12
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
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| Post: #434 Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 9:13 pm Post subject: |
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In continuation to my yesterdays Ichimoku chart
You can see that today NIFTY took support right at Kumo lower line (known as Senkou Span B)
Similarly, for tomorrow 6130-20 will be the major support area for NIFTY
Once broken can fall to lower levels
Major support levels are 6050 - 6020 - 5950
Resistance levels are 6195 - 6242 |
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saumya12
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
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| Post: #435 Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 9:20 pm Post subject: |
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NS +ww 5 min tf tgt 6185 27.1.14
IMO, we can meet 6185 as gap open or within 30 or 60 minutes |
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