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Nifty View - January Series 2014 |
ragarwal
Yellow Belt
Joined: 16 Nov 2008
Posts: 582
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Post: #46  Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:19 pm Post subject: |
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grt call ramesh sir  |
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chandrujimrc
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Apr 2009
Posts: 1683
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| Post: #47 Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:20 pm Post subject: |
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| Nov premium gap must be corrected in this month.So we can expect NF minimum upto 6100 |
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chandrujimrc
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Apr 2009
Posts: 1683
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| Post: #48 Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Mkt again at low side,we can expect down opening. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #49 Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:21 pm Post subject: |
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| chandrujimrc wrote: | | Mkt again at low side,we can expect down opening. |
chandru, nifty is close to a good support but vix and pcr are making me nervous since yesterday. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #50 Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:28 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | chandrujimrc wrote: | | Mkt again at low side,we can expect down opening. |
chandru, nifty is close to a good support but vix and pcr are making me nervous since yesterday. |
SGX Nifty from 6283 +0.39% fallen to 6244.00 -0.23% in a flash after US opened...
As we didn't cross while trading today for the first time the previous all time high of 6358 (not counting the gap up which broke all time high), i think we could go back to test level of 5970 from where we have bounced twice. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #51 Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:40 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | SGX Nifty from 6283 +0.39% fallen to 6244.00 -0.23% in a flash after US opened...
As we didn't cross while trading today for the first time the previous all time high of 6358 (not counting the gap up which broke all time high), i think we could go back to test level of 5970 from where we have bounced twice. |
apka, I don't agree with your logic ........... unless a shoulder was formed today of a HnS, in which case damage will be much more. That's why only a bit below today's low is permissible for a recovery towards a new high. |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #52 Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:06 pm Post subject: |
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| SGX NIFTY 6217 (-41.50).I wonder why it's going down so fast? |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #53 Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:21 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | SGX Nifty from 6283 +0.39% fallen to 6244.00 -0.23% in a flash after US opened...
As we didn't cross while trading today for the first time the previous all time high of 6358 (not counting the gap up which broke all time high), i think we could go back to test level of 5970 from where we have bounced twice. |
apka, I don't agree with your logic ........... unless a shoulder was formed today of a HnS, in which case damage will be much more. That's why only a bit below today's low is permissible for a recovery towards a new high. |
I feel APKA is right ..the way i look at it is Markets are struggling at higher levels with drop in volumes...calls and puts IV had dropped drastically..even though Vix had gone so low we were not able to takeout the new high convincingly...today's latter half saw spurt in volumes thereby indicating a further fall...my views might be wrong..but for the last two to three months i have been reading on cnbc website all positive news about India...in today's news i read that they are watching out for "New zealand currency the rupee and the rupiah" and today itself our currency started depreciating..markets tanked...i might be wrong but sentiments have changed a little from bullish to neutral at least i feel from FIIs point of view...i might be wrong...experts waiting for your views..Vinay and Apka. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #54 Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:31 pm Post subject: |
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| yashrahul wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | SGX Nifty from 6283 +0.39% fallen to 6244.00 -0.23% in a flash after US opened...
As we didn't cross while trading today for the first time the previous all time high of 6358 (not counting the gap up which broke all time high), i think we could go back to test level of 5970 from where we have bounced twice. |
apka, I don't agree with your logic ........... unless a shoulder was formed today of a HnS, in which case damage will be much more. That's why only a bit below today's low is permissible for a recovery towards a new high. |
I feel APKA is right ..the way i look at it is Markets are struggling at higher levels with drop in volumes...calls and puts IV had dropped drastically..even though Vix had gone so low we were not able to takeout the new high convincingly...today's latter half saw spurt in volumes thereby indicating a further fall...my views might be wrong..but for the last two to three months i have been reading on cnbc website all positive news about India...in today's news i read that they are watching out for "New zealand currency the rupee and the rupiah" and today itself our currency started depreciating..markets tanked...i might be wrong but sentiments have changed a little from bullish to neutral at least i feel from FIIs point of view...i might be wrong...experts waiting for your views..Vinay and Apka. |
yash, I did post earlier in response to chandru'spost that vix and pcr have been making me nervous since yesterday. add to that today's fall in INR. But still, I am not looking at much fall at thois stage and feel we will see a higher high before a major fall (10%+) can occur. Note that this expiry is big and market makers will play with options to tank the market and accumulate both large and mid caps for long term. Only next week's close will tell us shape of things to come for Jan. I still feel about 6500 is possible in Jan. In any case I am overall very bullish for the year. Unless something terrible happens in loksabha elections or globally. |
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chandrujimrc
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Apr 2009
Posts: 1683
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| Post: #55 Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:31 pm Post subject: |
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Dear vinay/apka,
One small observation,after expiry every month nifty fut premium gap will be corrected during first week,if fails the whole month will be in uptrend only but 100% this gap and previous month gap will be corrected in the next month.according to this the premium gap between nov&dec was not corrected during first week of dec2013,so the whole month was in uptrend only,Now the mkt will try to fill the nov-dec gap.Pl backtest and make your comments. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #56 Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:37 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | SGX Nifty from 6283 +0.39% fallen to 6244.00 -0.23% in a flash after US opened...
As we didn't cross while trading today for the first time the previous all time high of 6358 (not counting the gap up which broke all time high), i think we could go back to test level of 5970 from where we have bounced twice. |
apka, I don't agree with your logic ........... unless a shoulder was formed today of a HnS, in which case damage will be much more. That's why only a bit below today's low is permissible for a recovery towards a new high. |
I don't like your magnifying glass  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #57 Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:38 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | I don't like your magnifying glass |
very naughty!  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #58 Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:40 pm Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | SGX NIFTY 6217 (-41.50).I wonder why it's going down so fast? |
I guess (hope) it's just a kneekerk reaction. Actually, nifty fell first today. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #59 Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:45 pm Post subject: |
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| chandrujimrc wrote: | Dear vinay/apka,
One small observation,after expiry every month nifty fut premium gap will be corrected during first week,if fails the whole month will be in uptrend only but 100% this gap and previous month gap will be corrected in the next month.according to this the premium gap between nov&dec was not corrected during first week of dec2013,so the whole month was in uptrend only,Now the mkt will try to fill the nov-dec gap.Pl backtest and make your comments. |
chandru, I hope I have understood what you have said but not sure it happens as a regular future though I haven't tracked it like you, to be honest. But IMHO it also depends on carry forward position. Premium was indeed high (>70) to begin with and fell to a low of about 37 today, if I remember right. I feel a premium of about 30 will bring some sense to nifty. Note Jan expiry is long and such wild swings will happen. By the way, if my understanding is right, carry forwad of long positions was low as premium was high, which means long covering will be limited. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #60 Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:50 pm Post subject: |
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| chandrujimrc wrote: | Dear vinay/apka,
One small observation,after expiry every month nifty fut premium gap will be corrected during first week,if fails the whole month will be in uptrend only but 100% this gap and previous month gap will be corrected in the next month.according to this the premium gap between nov&dec was not corrected during first week of dec2013,so the whole month was in uptrend only,Now the mkt will try to fill the nov-dec gap.Pl backtest and make your comments. |
chandru, even I haven't kept a follow of this thing. But the portion highlighted by me in your post, when it happens (or as due to happen in Jan).. what was that gap level between nov-dec fut? |
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