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Nifty View - January Series 2014 |
chandrujimrc
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Apr 2009
Posts: 1683
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Post: #61  Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:52 pm Post subject: |
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| Sorry vinay, I am talking about expiry day closing price difference. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #62 Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 10:02 pm Post subject: |
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| chandrujimrc wrote: | | Sorry vinay, I am talking about expiry day closing price difference. |
oh ok, so nov expiry was around 6180NF? If so, that's appx. my one likely level this time. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #63 Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 10:27 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | chandrujimrc wrote: | | Sorry vinay, I am talking about expiry day closing price difference. |
oh ok, so nov expiry was around 6180NF? If so, that's appx. my one likely level this time. |
ok but i think he also means when that happens the whole month doesn't stay in uptrend..
Sgx Nifty Future 6205.00 -53.50 -0.86%
Results start on 10th Jan with INFY and then 28th Jan RBI Policy.. will surely be options premium killer and multiplier this time.
The interim budget will be when, same feb end or earlier, if any knows? |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #64 Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 11:36 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | yashrahul wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | SGX Nifty from 6283 +0.39% fallen to 6244.00 -0.23% in a flash after US opened...
As we didn't cross while trading today for the first time the previous all time high of 6358 (not counting the gap up which broke all time high), i think we could go back to test level of 5970 from where we have bounced twice. |
apka, I don't agree with your logic ........... unless a shoulder was formed today of a HnS, in which case damage will be much more. That's why only a bit below today's low is permissible for a recovery towards a new high. |
I feel APKA is right ..the way i look at it is Markets are struggling at higher levels with drop in volumes...calls and puts IV had dropped drastically..even though Vix had gone so low we were not able to takeout the new high convincingly...today's latter half saw spurt in volumes thereby indicating a further fall...my views might be wrong..but for the last two to three months i have been reading on cnbc website all positive news about India...in today's news i read that they are watching out for "New zealand currency the rupee and the rupiah" and today itself our currency started depreciating..markets tanked...i might be wrong but sentiments have changed a little from bullish to neutral at least i feel from FIIs point of view...i might be wrong...experts waiting for your views..Vinay and Apka. |
yash, I did post earlier in response to chandru'spost that vix and pcr have been making me nervous since yesterday. add to that today's fall in INR. But still, I am not looking at much fall at thois stage and feel we will see a higher high before a major fall (10%+) can occur. Note that this expiry is big and market makers will play with options to tank the market and accumulate both large and mid caps for long term. Only next week's close will tell us shape of things to come for Jan. I still feel about 6500 is possible in Jan. In any case I am overall very bullish for the year. Unless something terrible happens in loksabha elections or globally. |
I have always mentioned that i feel you are most of the time right and my view might be wrong but I am bearish for the markets for this year...all along i have been hearing that the markets factor in the next six months..we are most probably going to see not a clear majority with the emergence of AAP(i feel they deserve it) add to that taper,inflation,negative auto figures for months,fluctuating rupee etc and if we are going to apply the same logic that was applied for the past 4 to 5 months of looking six months ahead then even 5200 looks likely by march or april  |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #65 Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 11:42 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | I don't like your magnifying glass |
very naughty!  |
Last edited by yashrahul on Thu Jan 02, 2014 11:54 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #66 Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 11:43 pm Post subject: |
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[quote="yashrahul"] | vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | I don't like your magnifying glass |
very naughty! |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #67 Posted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 11:58 pm Post subject: |
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[quote="yashrahul"] | yashrahul wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | I don't like your magnifying glass |
very naughty! |
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saumya12
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
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| Post: #68 Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 12:04 am Post subject: |
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INDIA VIX Chart
Formed a CnH
Though yesterday there was a -ww |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #69 Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 12:18 am Post subject: |
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| saumya12 wrote: | INDIA VIX Chart
Formed a CnH
Though yesterday there was a -ww |
though sometimes it works, but i am always wary of Cup formation after a downtrend.. if u reverse the image you will see handle has formed and cup later .. reverse case in uptrend.. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #70 Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 9:04 am Post subject: |
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| on 30/12, sgx showed a range of 6204/6574 |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #71 Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 9:13 am Post subject: |
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| I would suggest that once can buy on dips and around 6180NF is worst possible as of now. I am already long with fingers crossed. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #72 Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 9:41 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | I would suggest that once can buy on dips and around 6180NF is worst possible as of now. I am already long with fingers crossed. |
i think one of those volatile days today where both side sl hits once PM starts speaking...  |
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riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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| Post: #73 Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 9:45 am Post subject: |
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even sgx low today is arnd..6184... plus i do sometimes follow bollinger bands.. i ve seen our mkts do generally touch the lower levels formed on sgx..
fyi, on daily lower band is arnd 6151..(which is also one possibility)..
however on 1 hr it has touched the lower band and closed abv... so i m guessing it shld touch the mid level which is arnd.. 6320..
even yest WAP is arnd 6324..
if mkt has to go higher, (if u go by JT's logic) it will touch 6320 or go arnd that mark once atleast... |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #74 Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 9:47 am Post subject: |
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| riteshucha wrote: | even sgx low today is arnd..6184... plus i do sometimes follow bollinger bands.. i ve seen our mkts do generally touch the lower levels formed on sgx..
fyi, on daily lower band is arnd 6151..(which is also one possibility)..
however on 1 hr it has touched the lower band and closed abv... so i m guessing it shld touch the mid level which is arnd.. 6320..
even yest WAP is arnd 6324..
if mkt has to go higher, (if u go by JT's logic) it will touch 6320 or go arnd that mark once atleast... |
APKA, if about 6180nf holds (if at all it is reached), I still feel we will see about 6483nf soon. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #75 Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 9:58 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | riteshucha wrote: | even sgx low today is arnd..6184... plus i do sometimes follow bollinger bands.. i ve seen our mkts do generally touch the lower levels formed on sgx..
fyi, on daily lower band is arnd 6151..(which is also one possibility)..
however on 1 hr it has touched the lower band and closed abv... so i m guessing it shld touch the mid level which is arnd.. 6320..
even yest WAP is arnd 6324..
if mkt has to go higher, (if u go by JT's logic) it will touch 6320 or go arnd that mark once atleast... |
APKA, if about 6180nf holds (if at all it is reached), I still feel we will see about 6483nf soon. |
hmm, im getting more skeptical.. BN has -ww active and also a HnS now for 700-800 point trgt. |
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