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Nifty View - July '15 Series |
riteshucha Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012 Posts: 1292
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Post: #106 Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2015 4:25 pm Post subject: |
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vinay / anil ji
correct me if i am reading this wrong:
last week, as per anil ji's weekly update, we were looking for close above or breakout above 8520 for going long...
1) hence, now the low of that day, when breakout or close above 8520 happened (i.e 8462.95) should become SAR!! correct??
2)if 8462.95 NS has to break, then recent high(8646.75) minus SAR level i.e 8463 = 184 points, meaning 8463-184 = 8278, should roughly be the target for this downmove...?? |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #107 Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2015 5:20 pm Post subject: |
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riteshucha wrote: | vinay / anil ji
correct me if i am reading this wrong:
last week, as per anil ji's weekly update, we were looking for close above or breakout above 8520 for going long...
1) hence, now the low of that day, when breakout or close above 8520 happened (i.e 8462.95) should become SAR!! correct??
2)if 8462.95 NS has to break, then recent high(8646.75) minus SAR level i.e 8463 = 184 points, meaning 8463-184 = 8278, should roughly be the target for this downmove...?? |
ritesh, I don't understand your query. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #108 Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:57 pm Post subject: |
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This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Wednesday (22/07/15) and beyond
Supports are at about 8509, 8491/82, 8469, 8435 and 8423 while resistances are at about 8565/77, 8612, 8652, 8682/94 and 8717. An unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8454. A +WW can give about 8668 (if above 8578) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give 8427 (if below 8570) and 8370 (if below 8500) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give at least 8910 if nifty sustains above 8590. A rising wedge break down can give at least 8475 if nifty breaks and sustains below 8580.
Nifty fell as predicted yesterday and closed below 8550. There is a -ve div with good -ve volume and we may see some more fall. A close below 8454 can mean further fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #109 Posted: Wed Jul 22, 2015 8:25 pm Post subject: |
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This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Thursday (23/07/15) and beyond
Supports are at about 8592, 8577, 8548/36, 8512 and 8446 while resistances are at about 8650, 8669, 8686/96, 8722, 8738, 8786 and 8824. An unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8454. Two +WWs can give about 8701 and 8755 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give 8588/70 (if below 8618), 8557 (if below 8600) and 8487 (if below 8698, which is yet to be reached) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give at least 8910 if nifty sustains above 8590. A rising wedge break down can give at least 8475 if nifty breaks and sustains below 8580.
Nifty rose sharply after a gap down open and closed above 8600, at a new high since April '15. Daily candle is almost bullish engulfing. However, the bearish div formed today again will vanish only if nifty touches 8647, enabling higher levels. A close below 8529 can mean further fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #110 Posted: Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:46 pm Post subject: |
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This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Friday (24/07/15) and beyond
Supports are at about 8577, 8557, 8535, 8521, 8477, 8454 and 8429 while resistances are at about 8639, 8661, 8688, 8703 and 8717. An unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8454. Five +WWs can give about 8627/55 (if above 8574), 8647/82 (if above 8578) and 8701 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give 8561/50 and 8534/12 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give at least 8980 if nifty sustains above 8660. A rising wedge break down can give at least 8250 if nifty breaks and sustains below 8515.
Nifty fell again on good volume and closed below 8600. There is a -ve div and it may fall some more. However, money flow not being -ve, fall may not be much. But a close below 8593 on Friday can mean further fall next week. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. |
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riteshucha Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012 Posts: 1292
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Post: #111 Posted: Fri Jul 24, 2015 11:00 am Post subject: |
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basically wanted to know if u concurr:
can low on the day of breakout be considered as SAR??
if yes then, 8462.95 NS becomes important level.
Till it is not breached, every dip till 8482/8500 should be used to buy with SAR as 8460 NS
vinay28 wrote: | riteshucha wrote: | vinay / anil ji
correct me if i am reading this wrong:
last week, as per anil ji's weekly update, we were looking for close above or breakout above 8520 for going long...
1) hence, now the low of that day, when breakout or close above 8520 happened (i.e 8462.95) should become SAR!! correct??
2)if 8462.95 NS has to break, then recent high(8646.75) minus SAR level i.e 8463 = 184 points, meaning 8463-184 = 8278, should roughly be the target for this downmove...?? |
ritesh, I don't understand your query. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #112 Posted: Fri Jul 24, 2015 11:46 am Post subject: |
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riteshucha wrote: | basically wanted to know if u concurr:
can low on the day of breakout be considered as SAR??
if yes then, 8462.95 NS becomes important level.
Till it is not breached, every dip till 8482/8500 should be used to buy with SAR as 8460 NS |
no idea boss. for today 8629NF is SL, target 8534 |
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riteshucha Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012 Posts: 1292
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Post: #113 Posted: Fri Jul 24, 2015 11:57 am Post subject: |
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okay thanks...
fyi, as long as it is above 8576 (buy more around 8557), tgt on upside are 8599 / 8622 / 8645
SL 8533
vinay28 wrote: | riteshucha wrote: | basically wanted to know if u concurr:
can low on the day of breakout be considered as SAR??
if yes then, 8462.95 NS becomes important level.
Till it is not breached, every dip till 8482/8500 should be used to buy with SAR as 8460 NS |
no idea boss. for today 8629NF is SL, target 8534 |
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asrtrade White Belt
Joined: 08 Jul 2014 Posts: 10
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Post: #114 Posted: Fri Jul 24, 2015 12:19 pm Post subject: |
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Hi,
Is RIL result due before market hours today? Just wondering if that could be the joker in the pack- make or break, above 8650 today?
Thanks |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #115 Posted: Fri Jul 24, 2015 2:39 pm Post subject: |
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asrtrade wrote: | Hi,
Is RIL result due before market hours today? Just wondering if that could be the joker in the pack- make or break, above 8650 today?
Thanks |
evening |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #116 Posted: Fri Jul 24, 2015 7:45 pm Post subject: |
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This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Monday (27/07/15) and beyond
Supports are at about 8505, 8493/83, 8460 and 8429 while resistances are at about 8542/57, 8577, 8595, 8618, 8665 and 8717. An unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8454. Six +WWs can give about 8594/8604 (if above 8559), 8657/82 (if above 8564) and 8686/8721 (if above 8571) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give 8481 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give at least 8980 if nifty sustains above 8660. A rising wedge break down can give at least 8250 if nifty breaks and sustains below 8515.
Nifty fell again on good volume and closed below 8550 and looks bearish. There is a mild -ve div on weekly but money flow is still healthy. Hence, it may not fall much more. Only crossing above 8665 with a close above 8634 can take it up further while a close below 8510 can mean more pain. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #117 Posted: Fri Jul 24, 2015 7:50 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: | riteshucha wrote: | basically wanted to know if u concurr:
can low on the day of breakout be considered as SAR??
if yes then, 8462.95 NS becomes important level.
Till it is not breached, every dip till 8482/8500 should be used to buy with SAR as 8460 NS |
no idea boss. for today 8629NF is SL, target 8534 |
Profit hit based in Avinash intra day strat lab |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #118 Posted: Fri Jul 24, 2015 8:28 pm Post subject: |
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riteshucha wrote: | basically wanted to know if u concurr:
can low on the day of breakout be considered as SAR??
if yes then, 8462.95 NS becomes important level.
Till it is not breached, every dip till 8482/8500 should be used to buy with SAR as 8460 NS
vinay28 wrote: | riteshucha wrote: | vinay / anil ji
correct me if i am reading this wrong:
last week, as per anil ji's weekly update, we were looking for close above or breakout above 8520 for going long...
1) hence, now the low of that day, when breakout or close above 8520 happened (i.e 8462.95) should become SAR!! correct??
2)if 8462.95 NS has to break, then recent high(8646.75) minus SAR level i.e 8463 = 184 points, meaning 8463-184 = 8278, should roughly be the target for this downmove...?? |
ritesh, I don't understand your query. |
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Thanks I would experiment with this. Seems workable to me on seeing price action and psychology and break above 8444 level of JT earlier . Just an add on
For conservative traders, they should not mind buying even above 8550 if it touches 8491 aprox and moves above 8550...... We would then see vertical move above 8650 - they would not buy at 8500 itself but wait for confirmation
Also if break 8440 I would be a seller.
Also it is possible for a wrap around 8500 levels followed by a 250 point move
NOTE it is possible that irrespective of hit to 8800 bear it is only bear reaction and wave b from 7940 since the trendline from 5116-5957 something has been breached and hence as per EW bull wave has completed and we are in bear wVe .... When c completes down TP 7900-7700 etc we would see resumption of long term rally ...., triangle being usual for 4th wVe and in our case complex diametrics may be at work
Remember Shekhar post and see that 8635 was stretched target of Smaller b wave ( not one I have mentioned above in larger timeframe) and c wave is likely to ensure.
Trade as above and break of 8440 or 8575 would determine the trajectory for next 100-250 points |
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ragarwal Yellow Belt
Joined: 16 Nov 2008 Posts: 582
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Post: #119 Posted: Fri Jul 24, 2015 11:46 pm Post subject: |
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So target fr c wave would be as given by Shekhar ,Amit? |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #120 Posted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:33 pm Post subject: |
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ragarwal wrote: | So target fr c wave would be as given by Shekhar ,Amit? |
No EW is all permutations scenario and understanding ( Which is very limited for me)
IF
either 1 of 3 of 5 of what count one has from 4538 OR OR 5119 depending upon from where starts counting BULL phase start SHOULD be considered complete for me since 5119 ( from where I start counting the waves) trendline joining 5935 is broken, so possible 4th wave in progress OR even if one considers 5 waves complete from 5119 then also A to C pending or 1-5 of bear pending
So this A can be 9119-7940 , B hit 8646 ( shekhaf had visualised this possibility of 114/127 move for B ) and C can hit down ..... Since current zig zag possibility is open , C can be below 7700 from 8640 to at least of length A (1200 points)
If B has not ended at 8640 , then a triangle or diametric may be taking shape and it can hit 8800or even 9100 in this B wave ( of bear reaction to unfold in ABC fashion and then this C can take it down to 7900-8000 again )
I may be confusing I may be wrong in interpretation exactly but broadly we can have counts in this manner. |
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