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Nifty View - July '15 Series
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Author Nifty View - July '15 Series
vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #121   PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
Here's a post I have been making every year around this time.

According to an observation made based on astronomy (based on sun's transit and NOT astrology) ), high/low of period 13/7 to 26/7 each year is vital. Break out/down in any direction gives good gains till 14/1 of next year i.e. 14/01/16 now. 12-90% gain has been seen in previous 10 years. Gains are high on second break out/down if first break down/out is false.

Let's track high/low of this period.


H/L are 8654.75/8355.40. Even if nifty is going go up big time, a false break down below 8355.40 is not ruled out though probability is low IMHO.
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amitagg
Black Belt
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559

Post: #122   PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 12:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
Here's a post I have been making every year around this time.

According to an observation made based on astronomy (based on sun's transit and NOT astrology) ), high/low of period 13/7 to 26/7 each year is vital. Break out/down in any direction gives good gains till 14/1 of next year i.e. 14/01/16 now. 12-90% gain has been seen in previous 10 years. Gains are high on second break out/down if first break down/out is false.

Let's track high/low of this period.


H/L are 8654.75/8355.40. Even if nifty is going go up big time, a false break down below 8355.40 is not ruled out though probability is low IMHO.


Big time- in that case you believe low of 7940 shall not be broken . Isn't it!?
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vinay28
Black Belt
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #123   PostPosted: Sun Jul 26, 2015 12:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

amitagg wrote:
Big time- in that case you believe low of 7940 shall not be broken . Isn't it!?


amit, though about 7860 is possible, I doubt even below about 8180 as of now.
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vinay28
Black Belt
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #124   PostPosted: Mon Jul 27, 2015 7:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
Here's a post I have been making every year around this time.

According to an observation made based on astronomy (based on sun's transit and NOT astrology) ), high/low of period 13/7 to 26/7 each year is vital. Break out/down in any direction gives good gains till 14/1 of next year i.e. 14/01/16 now. 12-90% gain has been seen in previous 10 years. Gains are high on second break out/down if first break down/out is false.

Let's track high/low of this period.


H/L are 8654.75/8355.40. Even if nifty is going go up big time, a false break down below 8355.40 is not ruled out though probability is low IMHO.


today's low was 8365.
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #125   PostPosted: Mon Jul 27, 2015 7:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Tuesday (28/07/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 8311, 8260 and 8230 while resistances are at about 8405, 8445/53/63, 8480, 8543, 8560 and 8575. An unfilled gap on higher/lower sides are at about 8522/8174 while a previous low is about 8315. 50/100/200 dma are at about 8343/8415/8426 resp. Two +WWs can give about 8436/8500 (if above 8366) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give 8250 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A rising wedge break down can give about 8250.

Nifty fell sharply again and closed below 8400 and more importantly below 100/200 dma and just above 50 dma. Only hope for bulls is a bullish div that has developed. If buying resumes, the reversal can be very sharp. A close above 8530 will be the first sign of likelihood of further upmove while a close below 8318 can mean more pain. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #126   PostPosted: Tue Jul 28, 2015 8:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Wednesday (29/07/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 8305, 8275, 8260, 8240 and 8216 while resistances are at about 8355/67, 8385, 8405, 8438, 8455/65, 8490 and 8560. An unfilled gap on higher/lower sides are at about 8522/8174 while a previous low is about 8315. 50/100/200 dma are at about 8342/8420/8417 resp. Two +WWs can give about 8405 (if above 8341) and 8452 If above 8416) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give 8245 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A rising wedge break down can give about 8250.

Nifty fell again and closed below 8350 and more importantly below 50 dma. Also, 100 dma closed below 200 dma and looks like quite bearish. The only hopes for bulls are a +ve div on lower tf and the bullish div on daily chart. Also, money flow is again looking up. If buying resumes, the reversal will be very sharp. A close above 8511 will be the first sign of likelihood of further upmove while a close below 8318 can mean more pain. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #127   PostPosted: Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Thursday (30/07/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 8365/56, 8345, 8320, 8255 and 8240 while resistances are at about 8395, 8405/10, 8430, 8450/60, 8477 and 8560. An unfilled gap on higher/lower sides are at about 8522/8174 while a previous low is about 8315. 50/100/200 dma are at about 8342/8420/8417 resp. Two +WWs can give about 8415 (if above 8339) and 8564 (if above 8354) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give 8331 (if below 8389) and 8237 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A rising wedge break down can give about 8250.

Nifty remained in a tight range after a gap up open and closed +ve above 8350 and 50 dma. 100 dma remains below 200 dma and nifty doesn't seem to be out of the woods yet. However, daily candle is an inside bar and like a hammer and bullish harami with strong +ve volume. Also, the bullish div on daily chart persists and we may see a sharp reversal. A close above 8511 will be the first sign of likelihood of further upmove while a close below 8318 can mean more pain. Wednesday had the smallest range since 15/01 and we may see very big moves in next few days. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Being an expiry day, trade carefully.
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #128   PostPosted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Friday (31/07/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 8416, 8400, 8389/75, 8323, 8270 and 8253 while resistances are at about 8432, 8453, 8466, 8486, 8506 and 8560. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8522/8375 while a previous low is about 8315. 50/100/200 dma are at about 8341/8409/8422 resp. Two +WWs can give about 8493 and 8566 (if above 8352) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give 8398 (if below 8466), 8330 (if below 8390) and 8235 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A rising wedge break down can give about 8250.

Nifty reacted after a gap up open and closed flattish above 8400 and also above 50/100 dma but fractionally below 200 dma. 100 dma still remains below 200 dma and nifty doesn't seem to be out of the woods yet. Daily candle is an inverted hammer but may not be bearish, not being at the top of an uptrend. Also, the bullish div on daily chart persists and we may see a sharp reversal. On a daily basis, a close above 8511/8530 is required for further upmove. On a weekly basis, a close above 8435 is a must and above 8522 preferred while on a monthly basis a close above 8369 is a must and above 8434 preferred. A close below 8368/60 can mean more pain. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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amitagg
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559

Post: #129   PostPosted: Fri Jul 31, 2015 1:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
Here's a post I have been making every year around this time.

According to an observation made based on astronomy (based on sun's transit and NOT astrology) ), high/low of period 13/7 to 26/7 each year is vital. Break out/down in any direction gives good gains till 14/1 of next year i.e. 14/01/16 now. 12-90% gain has been seen in previous 10 years. Gains are high on second break out/down if first break down/out is false.

Let's track high/low of this period.


H/L are 8654.75/8355.40. Even if nifty is going go up big time, a false break down below 8355.40 is not ruled out though probability is low IMHO.


today's low was 8365.


Great one!
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #130   PostPosted: Fri Jul 31, 2015 2:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I feel recent low (about 8320) may be bottom for rest of the year. Immediate target being 8800+ and next 9400.
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swamy@20
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Joined: 26 Mar 2012
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Post: #131   PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2015 11:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

News from www.tehlka.com

SEBI and NSE raised warnings against ICICI BANK and its Broking company ICICI SECURITIES for manipulating stock markets High beta bank stocks via dummy "pool account with forged KYC Fake address and Dubious bank acvounts".

Biggest stock market deivative manipulation in the world.

Yesterday NIFTY July 2015 contract 8400 strike Put option written by ICICI securities to the tune of 78,000 crore and eroded all retail clients premium and pocketed Rs78,000 crore.

SEBI searching Nifty option writers wherabouts.

Warning by Sebi chairman sinha related stock manipulation like big blue chip stocks like icici bank axis bank TCS infosys shares by internal company bank employees.

https://in.finance.yahoo.com/…/sebi-chief-warns-companies - copy paste - for alertness of retail traders
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pkholla
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Joined: 04 Nov 2010
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Post: #132   PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2015 1:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

swamy@20 wrote:
Biggest stock market derivative manipulation in the world.

Nice article, but this is typical Indian exaggeration! We are certainly the biggest liars/ boasters (as a nation). Does Tehelka have a calculator?
Bankers in US are not passing on QE money printed by Fed, to consumers, but are using it for share/ real estate market manipulation. I read an article posted here in IC that outstanding options generated by big US banks are in TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS.
Joke: in 1990 Harshad Mehta was supposed to have committed BIG crime of bribing N Rao the PM, ONE CRORE RUPEES (gasp!) : UK newspapers calculated the amount in $ and GBP and found that junior employees of UK Govt were getting bigger bribes. They refused to print the allegation, saying whether true or false, amount is too pani- wala !!!
Prakash Holla
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #133   PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2015 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

swamy@20 wrote:
............Yesterday NIFTY July 2015 contract 8400 strike Put option written by ICICI securities to the tune of 78,000 crore and eroded all retail clients premium and pocketed Rs78,000 crore.........


how can a option be written to the tune of 78000cr?
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swamy@20
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Post: #134   PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2015 1:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I do not know vinay but any comments from ur side is welcome
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chandrujimrc
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Joined: 21 Apr 2009
Posts: 1683

Post: #135   PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2015 7:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NIFTY 30-Jul-2015 30-Jul-2015 PE 8,400.00 65,38,667.38


On 30/07/2015 total turnover of 8400 PE is RS 65386.67crore, Where is the question of 78000Crore by ICICI Bank alone.
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