iCharts Discussions

[vinay28]

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Monday (03/08/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 8515, 8500, 8470, 8445, 8400 and 8345 while resistances are at about 8560, 8575, 8581, 8610/20, 8635 and 8690. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8590/8421. 200 dma is at about 8425. Three +WWs can give about 8605, 8616 and 8654 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give 8505 and 8445 (if below 8538) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).

Nifty rose sharply after a big gap up open and closed well above 8500 and also above 200 dma. More importantly, it closed above 8530 suggesting further rise. However, 100 dma still remains below 200 dma. But, daily candle is strong and bridged the gap at 8522. Weekly candle is a hammer and volume on all TFs is strong. Now, a close above 8610/34 will catapult it into next orbit. A close below 8421 can cause more fall. Also, if nifty doesn't touch/cross 8655 but RSI crosses 60.19, it will fall again. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Trade carefully as Monday is RBI policy review day.

[vinay28]

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Tuesday (04/08/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 8510/8500, 8480, 8465, 8439 and 8385 while resistances are at about 8570, 8595, 8615, 8660 and 8696. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8590/8421. 200 dma is at about 8428. Three +WWs can give about 8572, 8614 and 8698 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give 8515, 8497 and 8458 (if below 8538) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An AT can give about 8605 upon break out above 8563.

Nifty rose after a big gap down open and closed flattish and +ve but below 8550. Daily range was small but volume was good. 100 dma still remains below 200 dma. A close above 8610/34 will catapult it into next orbit. A close below 8421 can cause more fall. Also, if nifty doesn't touch/cross 8655 but RSI crosses 60.19, it will fall again. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Trade carefully as Tuesday is RBI policy review day.

[vinay28]

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Wednesday (05/08/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 8510/8500, 8482, 8465/55 and 8435 while resistances are at about 8538, 8555, 8575, 8597, 8615 and 8630. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8590/8421. 200 dma is at about 8432. Two +WWs can give about 8561 and 8612 (if above 8480) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give 8464 (if below 8574) and 8422 (if below 8568) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).

Nifty fell after a gap up open but recovered to close -ve but above 8500. Daily NS candle is bearish engulfing and imperfect hanging man while NF candle is hanging man but not bearish engulfing, thereby sending conflicting signals, suggesting F&O play by operators. 100 dma still remains below 200 dma. Some more fall is likely for consolidation before it reverses again. It has to close above 8530 to become bullish but only a close above 8634 will catapult it into next orbit. A close below 8421 can cause more fall. Also, if nifty doesn't touch/cross 8655 but RSI crosses 60.19, it will fall again. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.

[vinay28]

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Thursday (06/08/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 8545, 8515, 8465 and 8385 while resistances are at about 8570, 8595, 8606/15, 8627 and 8690/97. Unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8516. Five +WWs can give about 8615, 8628, 8671, 8682 and 8693 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give 8489/06 (if below 8567) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).

Nifty opened gap up and rose to close above 8550. Daily volume is good and +ve. However, 100 dma remains below 200 dma. Some more fall is likely if it doesn't cross 8655 and also close above 8634. A close below 8516 can cause more fall. Also, if nifty doesn't touch/cross 8655 but RSI crosses 60.19, it will fall again. Wednesday was a NR 5 day and we may see a big move on Thursday. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.

[vinay28]

Two charts attached. First for updated NF levels and second for likely nifty levels in near future.

Second chart shows likely numbered sequence of down and up levels if it stops going up from tmrw and reverses. If that happens, a new all time high can come after level at 3. However, as of now, there are no indications of an impending fall.

[vinay28]

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Friday (07/08/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 8577, 8555, 8533, 8500 and 8465 while resistances are at about 8615/24, 8640 and 8699. Unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8516. Four +WWs can give about 8633, 8650, 8682 and 8708 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give 8546 (if below 8593), 8470/58 (if below 8602) and 8393 (if below 8567)(-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).

Nifty opened gap up, remained in a small range and closed flattish above 8550. Daily candle is a doji but volume is good and +ve. However, 100 dma remains below 200 dma and hence some fall is likely if it doesn't cross 8655 and also close above 8634. Being a Friday, a close above at least 8610 is required and above 8634 preferred while a close below 8522 can cause more fall. A gap down open can be the first hint of an impending fall. Also, if nifty doesn't touch/cross 8655 but RSI crosses 60.19, it will fall again. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.

[vinay28]

Updated NF chart as of 06 aug

[vinay28]

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Monday (10/08/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 8545/36, 8525, 8500 and 8465 while resistances are at about 8575, 8596, 8617, 8640 and 8698. Unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8516. Five +WWs can give about 8555, 8586 (if above 8544), 8608/30 (if above 8555), 8621 and 8682 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give 8540 (if below 8594) and 8453/35 (if below 8567) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A rising wedge break down can give 8500 while a ST break out can give 8840 if nifty crosses and sustains above 8600.

Nifty remained in a tight range and closed -ve but still above 8550. Daily candle is an inside doji and volume is good but -ve. Also, 100 dma remains below 200 dma and hence nifty may fall more. However, weekly candle is good and volume +ve and hence fall, if any, may not be severe. Nifty must cross 8655 and also close above 8634 for further rally. A close below 8522 can cause more fall. Also, if nifty doesn't touch/cross 8655 but RSI crosses 60.19, it may fall again. Friday was a NR7 day and we may see a big move on Monday. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.

[vinay28]

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Tuesday (11/08/15) and beyond

Supports are closely spaced at about 8500, 8485, 8470, 8450, 8422, 8413 and 8380 while resistances are at about 8550, 8591/8600, 8618, 8635 and 8675. Unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8421. Three +WWs can give about 8559 (if above 8453), 8607 (if above 8564) and 8612 (if above 8573)(+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give 8448 and 8355 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A ST break out can give 8840 if nifty crosses and sustains above 8600.

Nifty fell sharply after making a higher high since 24/07 and closed above 8500. Daily candle is an outside bar and volume is average. Money flow is also OK. There is a bullish div on lower tf and we may see a reversal. Also, previous week's candle and volume was good and hence further fall, if any, may not be severe. Nifty must close above 8544 and preferably above 8589 to give hope for further rally. A close below 8516 can cause more fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.

[pkholla]

Vinay : Rupee at 64.60 because China cooled its overheated and overvalued Yuan by a token 2%. What happens when China makes a more realistic 5% down move to adjust for recent horrible news from economy and export trade angles.
You may remember, I wrote recently about Hardy Rajan and Laurel Jaitley planning a slide of Rupee to 68? I think this may not be necessary as China is doing it for us.

But is there a reason to panic? After all we are not competing with China in hardware exports? And China is only adjusting to reality after wholesale looting by Party/ Army/ Princes has exposed a bare cupboard?
Never a dull moment!
Cheers, Prakash Holla

[vinay28]

yes Prakash. this is china's way of doing daily torture.

there could be more pain if china does it again soon. former IMF chief for china thinks it can be another 4-5 % devaluation.

I personally feel there won't be large scale panic. But a close below 8328 can be bad.

incidentally, mock trading levels were 8000-8910.

[amitagg]

[vinay28]

[vinay28]

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Thursday (13/08/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 8327, 8306, 8284 and 8267 while resistances are at about 8385, 8400, 8420, 8475, 8490 and 8503. Unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8337 while previous lows were at about 8321/15. Three +WWs can give about 8440 (if above 8376), 8498 (if above 8438) and 8595 (if above 8498) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give 8293 and 8279 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A ST break down can give 8050 if nifty sustains below 8440.

Nifty fell sharply again and closed below psychological level of 8350 and is very bearish. However, there is a bullish div and we may see a sharp reversal soon. A close below 8318 can cause more fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.

[pkholla]

Vinay: Is the worst over? Have public worldwide realized that Heaven has NOT fallen on their heads just because Yuan has a more realistic value?
OR
Waiting for storm phase 2?
Cheers, Prakash Holla