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Nifty View - July '15 Series
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Author Nifty View - July '15 Series
amitagg
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Post: #151   PostPosted: Thu Aug 13, 2015 3:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

higher bottom...... 2-3 days sideways action possible to kill the premiums risen due to higher vix. 8200-8600 range till expiry.
likely 8260-8530
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vinay28
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Post: #152   PostPosted: Thu Aug 13, 2015 3:58 pm    Post subject: Re: NF Reply with quote

pkholla wrote:
Vinay: Is the worst over? Have public worldwide realized that Heaven has NOT fallen on their heads just because Yuan has a more realistic value?
OR
Waiting for storm phase 2?
Cheers, Prakash Holla


Prakash, perhaps not. china effect if worsens, next ripple may come in Germany. next 2-3 months can be wild. INR can quickly go to 66.

having said above, today's candle is a bullish harami cross and I am hoping for a reversal to 8690 first, perhaps next week.
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vinay28
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Post: #153   PostPosted: Thu Aug 13, 2015 6:55 pm    Post subject: Re: NF Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
pkholla wrote:
Vinay: Is the worst over? Have public worldwide realized that Heaven has NOT fallen on their heads just because Yuan has a more realistic value?
OR
Waiting for storm phase 2?
Cheers, Prakash Holla


Prakash, perhaps not. china effect if worsens, next ripple may come in Germany. next 2-3 months can be wild. INR can quickly go to 66.

having said above, today's candle is a bullish harami cross and I am hoping for a reversal to 8690 first, perhaps next week.


not a harami cross but a low priced harami suggesting some more consolidation.
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vinay28
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Post: #154   PostPosted: Thu Aug 13, 2015 7:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Friday (14/08/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 8341, 8328, 8320 and 8285 while resistances are at about 8364, 8385, 8404, 8415, 8427, 8465, 8484, 8507 and 8542. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8463/8337 resp. while previous lows were at about 8321/15. Two +WWs can give about 8446 (if above 8336) and 8503 (if above 8437) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give 8304 and 8286 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A ST break down can give 8060 if nifty sustains below 8450.

Nifty fell sharply after a gap up open but recovered to close above the psychological level of 8350 but is still bearish. Daily candle is a low price Harami suggesting some consolidation rather than a reversal though volume is good and +ve. Also, the bullish div remains and we may see a sharp reversal soon. A close below 8318 can cause more fall but a weekly close below 8360 can also be bad. A weekly close above min 8497 is required to suggest a reversal. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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riteshucha
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Post: #155   PostPosted: Thu Aug 13, 2015 11:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Today's candle is an inside bar too... Hoping for today's low to be held...


vinay28 wrote:
This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Friday (14/08/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 8341, 8328, 8320 and 8285 while resistances are at about 8364, 8385, 8404, 8415, 8427, 8465, 8484, 8507 and 8542. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8463/8337 resp. while previous lows were at about 8321/15. Two +WWs can give about 8446 (if above 8336) and 8503 (if above 8437) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give 8304 and 8286 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A ST break down can give 8060 if nifty sustains below 8450.

Nifty fell sharply after a gap up open but recovered to close above the psychological level of 8350 but is still bearish. Daily candle is a low price Harami suggesting some consolidation rather than a reversal though volume is good and +ve. Also, the bullish div remains and we may see a sharp reversal soon. A close below 8318 can cause more fall but a weekly close below 8360 can also be bad. A weekly close above min 8497 is required to suggest a reversal. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Post: #156   PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2015 9:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

riteshucha wrote:
Today's candle is an inside bar too... Hoping for today's low to be held...


ritesh inside bar is general name. because it is at the possible end of a trend, it has become like a harami.
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pkholla
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Post: #157   PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2015 9:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vinay: Given the present flux, I am happy that we have a practical Rajan at the helm of RBI and not a "by the rulebook" like predecessors! A 0.5% cut now can nicely provide the V#$%ra injection needed by NF to overcome the sleeping sickness induced by ChiComs! Prakash Holla
PS Did you see the news of massive blast in industrial area, China? Covering up tracks of "institutional" looting?
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vinay28
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Post: #158   PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2015 10:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

pkholla wrote:
Vinay: Given the present flux, I am happy that we have a practical Rajan at the helm of RBI and not a "by the rulebook" like predecessors! A 0.5% cut now can nicely provide the V#$%ra injection needed by NF to overcome the sleeping sickness induced by ChiComs! Prakash Holla
PS Did you see the news of massive blast in industrial area, China? Covering up tracks of "institutional" looting?


I am expecting a rate cut latest by Tuesday.

industrial accidents are pretty common in china and are hardly reported. this was too big to hide.
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manojkr78
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Post: #159   PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2015 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vinay,

Did you notice H&S formation on Nifty spot EOD charts. Yesterday right shoulder got completed.
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vinay28
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Post: #160   PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2015 12:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

manojkr78 wrote:
Vinay, Did you notice H&S formation on Nifty spot EOD charts. Yesterday right shoulder got completed.


it is there but break down is below 8328 only.

people often ignore the power of bullish (or bearish) div.
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manojkr78
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Post: #161   PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2015 1:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

absolutely above 8660(head), will see 9000 easily.....
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vinay28
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Post: #162   PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2015 3:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

daily/weekly close above 8517 is good.
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vinay28
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Post: #163   PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2015 7:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Monday (17/08/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 8500, 8470, 8420 and 8380 while resistances are at about 8540, 8576, 8597, 8608, 8635, 8690 and 8700. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8590/8355 resp. while previous high were at about 8622/55. A +WW can give about 8614 (if above 8485) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give 8492 (if below 8529) and 8460 (if below 8492) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).

Nifty rose furiously in spite of a big gap up open and closed above 8500 and also above 200 dma. Daily candle is big and bullish but volume is not commensurate. Such a candle can be deceptive and we need to get a strong follow up upmove for next two days to confirm the bullishness. However, weekly candle is a hanging man cum bearish engulfing and volume is strongly -ve. Hence, we may not see much more rise from here without some more consolidation. If nifty doesn't touch/cross 8655 but RSI crosses 60.19, it may fall quickly. To begin with nifty must close above 8530 but preferably above 8589/8634 for rally to continue. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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ritapandit25
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Post: #164   PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 8:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vinay you have not open August series heading.
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vinay28
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Post: #165   PostPosted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ritapandit25 wrote:
Vinay you have not open August series heading.


hehe, so stupid of me. tks rita
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