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Nifty View - July '15 Series |
amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #151 Posted: Thu Aug 13, 2015 3:22 pm Post subject: |
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higher bottom...... 2-3 days sideways action possible to kill the premiums risen due to higher vix. 8200-8600 range till expiry.
likely 8260-8530 |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #152 Posted: Thu Aug 13, 2015 3:58 pm Post subject: Re: NF |
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pkholla wrote: | Vinay: Is the worst over? Have public worldwide realized that Heaven has NOT fallen on their heads just because Yuan has a more realistic value?
OR
Waiting for storm phase 2?
Cheers, Prakash Holla |
Prakash, perhaps not. china effect if worsens, next ripple may come in Germany. next 2-3 months can be wild. INR can quickly go to 66.
having said above, today's candle is a bullish harami cross and I am hoping for a reversal to 8690 first, perhaps next week. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #153 Posted: Thu Aug 13, 2015 6:55 pm Post subject: Re: NF |
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vinay28 wrote: | pkholla wrote: | Vinay: Is the worst over? Have public worldwide realized that Heaven has NOT fallen on their heads just because Yuan has a more realistic value?
OR
Waiting for storm phase 2?
Cheers, Prakash Holla |
Prakash, perhaps not. china effect if worsens, next ripple may come in Germany. next 2-3 months can be wild. INR can quickly go to 66.
having said above, today's candle is a bullish harami cross and I am hoping for a reversal to 8690 first, perhaps next week. |
not a harami cross but a low priced harami suggesting some more consolidation. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #154 Posted: Thu Aug 13, 2015 7:22 pm Post subject: |
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This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Friday (14/08/15) and beyond
Supports are at about 8341, 8328, 8320 and 8285 while resistances are at about 8364, 8385, 8404, 8415, 8427, 8465, 8484, 8507 and 8542. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8463/8337 resp. while previous lows were at about 8321/15. Two +WWs can give about 8446 (if above 8336) and 8503 (if above 8437) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give 8304 and 8286 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A ST break down can give 8060 if nifty sustains below 8450.
Nifty fell sharply after a gap up open but recovered to close above the psychological level of 8350 but is still bearish. Daily candle is a low price Harami suggesting some consolidation rather than a reversal though volume is good and +ve. Also, the bullish div remains and we may see a sharp reversal soon. A close below 8318 can cause more fall but a weekly close below 8360 can also be bad. A weekly close above min 8497 is required to suggest a reversal. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. |
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riteshucha Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012 Posts: 1292
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Post: #155 Posted: Thu Aug 13, 2015 11:22 pm Post subject: |
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Today's candle is an inside bar too... Hoping for today's low to be held...
vinay28 wrote: | This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Friday (14/08/15) and beyond
Supports are at about 8341, 8328, 8320 and 8285 while resistances are at about 8364, 8385, 8404, 8415, 8427, 8465, 8484, 8507 and 8542. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8463/8337 resp. while previous lows were at about 8321/15. Two +WWs can give about 8446 (if above 8336) and 8503 (if above 8437) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give 8304 and 8286 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A ST break down can give 8060 if nifty sustains below 8450.
Nifty fell sharply after a gap up open but recovered to close above the psychological level of 8350 but is still bearish. Daily candle is a low price Harami suggesting some consolidation rather than a reversal though volume is good and +ve. Also, the bullish div remains and we may see a sharp reversal soon. A close below 8318 can cause more fall but a weekly close below 8360 can also be bad. A weekly close above min 8497 is required to suggest a reversal. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #156 Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2015 9:02 am Post subject: |
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riteshucha wrote: | Today's candle is an inside bar too... Hoping for today's low to be held... |
ritesh inside bar is general name. because it is at the possible end of a trend, it has become like a harami. |
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pkholla Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010 Posts: 2890
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Post: #157 Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2015 9:53 am Post subject: |
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Vinay: Given the present flux, I am happy that we have a practical Rajan at the helm of RBI and not a "by the rulebook" like predecessors! A 0.5% cut now can nicely provide the V#$%ra injection needed by NF to overcome the sleeping sickness induced by ChiComs! Prakash Holla
PS Did you see the news of massive blast in industrial area, China? Covering up tracks of "institutional" looting? |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #158 Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2015 10:27 am Post subject: |
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pkholla wrote: | Vinay: Given the present flux, I am happy that we have a practical Rajan at the helm of RBI and not a "by the rulebook" like predecessors! A 0.5% cut now can nicely provide the V#$%ra injection needed by NF to overcome the sleeping sickness induced by ChiComs! Prakash Holla
PS Did you see the news of massive blast in industrial area, China? Covering up tracks of "institutional" looting? |
I am expecting a rate cut latest by Tuesday.
industrial accidents are pretty common in china and are hardly reported. this was too big to hide. |
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manojkr78 Green Belt
Joined: 07 Mar 2011 Posts: 1014
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Post: #159 Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2015 12:30 pm Post subject: |
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Vinay,
Did you notice H&S formation on Nifty spot EOD charts. Yesterday right shoulder got completed. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #160 Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2015 12:56 pm Post subject: |
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manojkr78 wrote: | Vinay, Did you notice H&S formation on Nifty spot EOD charts. Yesterday right shoulder got completed. |
it is there but break down is below 8328 only.
people often ignore the power of bullish (or bearish) div. |
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manojkr78 Green Belt
Joined: 07 Mar 2011 Posts: 1014
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Post: #161 Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2015 1:06 pm Post subject: |
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absolutely above 8660(head), will see 9000 easily..... |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #162 Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2015 3:37 pm Post subject: |
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daily/weekly close above 8517 is good. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #163 Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2015 7:55 pm Post subject: |
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This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Monday (17/08/15) and beyond
Supports are at about 8500, 8470, 8420 and 8380 while resistances are at about 8540, 8576, 8597, 8608, 8635, 8690 and 8700. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8590/8355 resp. while previous high were at about 8622/55. A +WW can give about 8614 (if above 8485) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give 8492 (if below 8529) and 8460 (if below 8492) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).
Nifty rose furiously in spite of a big gap up open and closed above 8500 and also above 200 dma. Daily candle is big and bullish but volume is not commensurate. Such a candle can be deceptive and we need to get a strong follow up upmove for next two days to confirm the bullishness. However, weekly candle is a hanging man cum bearish engulfing and volume is strongly -ve. Hence, we may not see much more rise from here without some more consolidation. If nifty doesn't touch/cross 8655 but RSI crosses 60.19, it may fall quickly. To begin with nifty must close above 8530 but preferably above 8589/8634 for rally to continue. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. |
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ritapandit25 Black Belt
Joined: 04 May 2013 Posts: 2926
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Post: #164 Posted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 8:24 pm Post subject: |
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Vinay you have not open August series heading. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #165 Posted: Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:02 pm Post subject: |
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ritapandit25 wrote: | Vinay you have not open August series heading. |
hehe, so stupid of me. tks rita |
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