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Nifty View - July '15 Series
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Author Nifty View - July '15 Series
vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #91   PostPosted: Tue Jul 14, 2015 12:30 pm    Post subject: Re: Greek enigma! Reply with quote

pkholla wrote:
Once again, the Greece problem has been kicked down the road. Once again no real solution, only bandaid to stop bleeding from cancer wound! But this may suffice to send NF into orbit (9200? 9600? by July end) as foretold by some experts here in IC
NM injection zinda baad
Euro bandaid treatment long life
Now waiting for soothing voices from China top management + QE Peking shtyle! Xi Jin Ping amar rahe!
Sabh kuch maya hai, bhai! But its OK as long as we dont fool ourselves by taking it seriously
Cheers, Prakash Holla


Prakash, the way things have happened, no matter what good happens in future the dream of a unified Europe if dead.
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pkholla
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Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890

Post: #92   PostPosted: Tue Jul 14, 2015 2:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vinay: Very true.
West Europe needs a currency adjustment (reality check) anyway. Chai waiters there earn more than factory managers in India/ Brazil!
And there's the aging superstar of Russia, young at heart tho' 64 yo, divorced his "old" wife of 55+ and married a se%y nurse of 33. Trying to unify East Europe jabar dasti. If rising crude prices put a few $ in his pocket, will he trouble Poland/ Georgia/ Belarus/ Lithuania/ Latvia/ Estonia next?
The smartest people in Europe appear to be the British, a part of Europe (to get benefits) but apart when it comes to political/ currency union
We need to trade very smart from here on. Minimum exposure, risk.

Prakash Holla
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #93   PostPosted: Tue Jul 14, 2015 8:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Wednesday (15/07/15) and beyond

Supports are closely spaced at about 8432/25, 8412, 8396, 8384/76 and 8363 while resistances are at about 8469, 8482, 8494, 8510 and 8577. 200/100 dma are at about 8390/8450. Three +WWs can give about 8556/73 and 8633 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give 8415 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give at least 8895 if nifty goes and sustains above 8575.

Nifty closed flattish -ve but above 8450 and also above 100 dma. There is a mild -ve div and it may fall some more. It must break above 8562 and also close above 8523 to maintain bullish tone. If it closes at/below 8444, it may fall more. Tuesday was a NR8 day and we may see a big range on Wednesday. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.


Last edited by vinay28 on Tue Jul 14, 2015 9:45 pm; edited 1 time in total
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swamy@20
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Joined: 26 Mar 2012
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Post: #94   PostPosted: Tue Jul 14, 2015 9:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vinay a small correction in ur post. Nifty close above 8450 instead of 8550.
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vinay28
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Post: #95   PostPosted: Tue Jul 14, 2015 9:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

swamy@20 wrote:
Vinay a small correction in ur post. Nifty close above 8450 instead of 8550.


yes swamy, I have corrected it. tks anyway
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vinay28
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Post: #96   PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 8:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Thursday (16/07/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 8506, 8480, 8437, 8412/05 and 8375 while resistances are at about 8550, 8577/83/90, 8659 and 8696. An unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8454 while 100 dma is at about 8447. Three +WWs can give about 8608, 8671 and 8729 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give 8405 (if below 8484) and 8288 (if below 8580, which is yet to be reached) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give at least 8905 if nifty goes and sustains above 8585.

Nifty rose sharply and closed well above 8500, particularly at a new high after 17/04. Daily candle is a bullish Marubuzo with good volume. Nifty must break above 8562, close above 8523 and RSI must cross 63.99/ 65.06 to maintain bullish tone. If it closes below 8454, it may fall more. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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ragwendra
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Joined: 12 Oct 2011
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Post: #97   PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2015 12:48 am    Post subject: sharp fall Reply with quote

Oi data suggesting a sharp fall upto 8300
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #98   PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2015 7:08 am    Post subject: Re: sharp fall Reply with quote

ragwendra wrote:
Oi data suggesting a sharp fall upto 8300


nothing is impossible ragwendra but why sharp?
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AjitS
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Joined: 21 Aug 2013
Posts: 138

Post: #99   PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2015 8:53 am    Post subject: Re: sharp fall Reply with quote

ragwendra wrote:
Oi data suggesting a sharp fall upto 8300


Ragwendra,

From the Options Data as of EoD 15th Jul,
- 8400 CE OI is down 5 lac
- 8500 CE OI is down 9 lac
- 8400 PE and 8500 PE up by 17+ and 14+ lac resply.

I interpret this as PUT writing and CALL unwinding - both of which point to more upside actually. Am I wrong?

How does it suggest fall? and what indicates it would be upto 8300?

Just to clarify - I am not challanging your comments, am asking purely for my own understanding / learning purposes.
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vinay28
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Post: #100   PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2015 10:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

caution. -ve div on daily
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vinay28
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Post: #101   PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2015 7:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Friday (17/07/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 8589, 8577, 8561, 8515/09, 8428 and 8412 while resistances are at about 8629, 8644, 8663, 8680, 8697/8705/8714 and 8786. An unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8523. Two +WWs can give about 8677 and 8740 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give 8498 (if below 8536), 8393 (if below 8489), 8350 (if below 8620) and 8285 (if below 8582) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give at least 8915 if nifty goes and sustains above 8595. A rising wedge break down can give at least 8475 if nifty breaks and sustains below 8585.

Nifty rose sharply again and closed above 8600. Daily candle is a bullish Marubuzo with good volume. However, a bearish div has developed and will vanish only if first 8845 and then 9120 is touched. This means it can reverse sharply from any level now onwards and caution is advised in trading. Weekly close above 8781 will give hopes of an all time to come. If it closes below 8522, it will fall more. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Post: #102   PostPosted: Fri Jul 17, 2015 9:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Monday (20/07/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 8586, 8577, 8565 and 8509 while resistances are at about 8616, 8638, 8659/66 and 8786. An unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8523. Four +WWs can give about 8633/8710 (if above 8604), 8684 and 8762 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give 8513 (if below 8583) and 8315/8276 (if below 8602) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give at least 8900 if nifty sustains above 8580. A rising wedge break down can give at least 8475 if nifty breaks and sustains below 8585.

Nifty remained in a narrow range and closed -ve but above 8600. Daily candle is a likely evening star though with good +ve volume. Hence Monday's candle is crucial. A Red candle closing around 8577 or below, particularly after a gap down open, will confirm evening star and will mean further fall. However, money flow is +ve and hints at continuation of upmove. Also, weekly candle is strong with good volume. But, the bearish div continues and will vanish only if first 8845 and then 9120 is touched. This means it can reverse sharply from any level now onwards and caution is advised in trading. Friday was a NR11 day and we may see a big range on Monday. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Post: #103   PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 6:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Tuesday (21/07/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 8595, 8577, 8558, 8530 and 8510 while resistances are at about 8624, 8641, 8661, 8675, 8717, 8777 and 8786. An unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8523. Four +WWs can give about 8664/8698 (if above 8581), 8689 and 8754 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). One -WW can give 8477 (if below 8578) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give at least 8900 if nifty sustains above 8580. A rising wedge break down can give at least 8475 if nifty breaks and sustains below 8585.

Nifty recovered after a fall and closed -ve (however, NF closed +ve) but above 8600 for the third consecutive day. Daily candle is a hanging man with good -ve volume. Hence, it fall more, albeit limited. A close below 8593 can mean further fall. The bearish div continues and will vanish only if first 8845 and then 9120 is touched. This means it can reverse sharply from any level now onwards and caution is advised in trading. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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pkholla
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Post: #104   PostPosted: Tue Jul 21, 2015 10:02 am    Post subject: $ Re? Reply with quote

Vinay: Looking at sudden breakout today in Infy and Hcltech, TCS showing signs of restlessness, are we looking at another slide in $ Re rate stage managed by Laurel Rajan and Oliver Jaitley?
Now 63.75:
65-66-67-68???
AND IF SO, implications for NF ???
Cheers, Prakash Holla
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vinay28
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Post: #105   PostPosted: Tue Jul 21, 2015 11:05 am    Post subject: Re: $ Re? Reply with quote

pkholla wrote:
Vinay: Looking at sudden breakout today in Infy and Hcltech, TCS showing signs of restlessness, are we looking at another slide in $ Re rate stage managed by Laurel Rajan and Oliver Jaitley?
Now 63.75:
65-66-67-68???
AND IF SO, implications for NF ???
Cheers, Prakash Holla


as of now none Prakash. it's just that for the first time in many qtrs. infy results are better than tcs. As for INR, it's worth watching. your point is well taken. note that most FII buying recently is in mid and small caps which are cheap at such INR rate
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