iCharts Discussions

[vinay28]

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Friday (01/07/16) and beyond

Supports are closely at about 8271/57/48/10, 8171, 8097 and 8037 while resistances are at about 8321/48/71, 8425 and 8462. Unfilled gaps on the higher/lower sides are at about 8373/8202 resp. A +WW can give about 8442 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 8233 (if below 8278), 8086 (if below 8224) and 8071 (if below 8243) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give 8635 if nifty remains above 8000. A rising wedge can give about 8055 in case of a break of 8277.

Nifty opened up with a big gap and rose further to close +ve below 8300, at the highest of the year. It also gave the highest monthly close since July '15. Daily candle is again a spinning top and a likely evening star, latter to be confirmed by a red candle, preferably with a gap down open. There is a -ve div on daily. Monthly candle is a hanging man. Also, there is hidden bearish div on weekly and monthly. However, volumes on all TFs are strong +ve and fall, if any, may be limited and we may see further rise. A major fall is possible only if sustained selling resumes. Nifty must close above 8337 to continue the rally while a close below 8270 may start a fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.

[vinay28]

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Monday (04/07/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8314/03, 8289/71, 8191/71 and 8093 while resistances are closely spaced at about 8334/52/62/76/84/93, 8415/25 and 8462. Unfilled gaps on the higher/lower sides are at about 8373/8287 resp. A +WW can give about 8445 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 8265 (if below 8318), 8227 (if below 8281), 8081 (if below 8250) and 8062 (if below 8304) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give 8635 if nifty remains above 8000. A rising wedge can give about 8090/7930 in case nifty sustains below 8335.

Nifty opened up with a big gap and rose but reacted a bit to to close +ve and well above 8300. It also gave the highest weekly close since 10/8/15. Daily candle is again a spinning top, like an inverted hammer and a likely evening star, latter to be confirmed by a red candle, preferably with a gap down open. The -ve div on daily persists. However, weekly candle is strong and daily/weekly volumes are good +ve and hence, fall, if any, may be limited. Also, persistent the hidden bearish div on weekly and monthly can give major fall only if sustained selling resumes. Nifty must close above 8337 to continue the rally while a close below 8270 may start a fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.

[vinay28]

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Tuesday (05/07/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8354/41/30/06, 8288/79/38/17 and 8171 while resistances are at about 8381/94, 8407/15/25/47 and 8562. Unfilled gaps on the higher/lower sides are at about 8707/8328 resp. Two +WWs can give about 8405/47 (if above 8365) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 8318, 8261 (if below 8323) and 8225 (if below 8283) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give 8635 if nifty remains above 8000. A rising wedge can give about 8100/7930 in case nifty sustains below 8380.

Nifty opened up with a big gap but couldn't go up much. It remained in a tight range to close -ve but well above 8350. Daily candle is again a spinning top, an inverted hammer and a likely evening star, latter to be confirmed by a red candle, preferably with a gap down open. The -ve div on daily persists. However, volumes was good +ve and hence, fall, if any, may be limited. Also, persistent the hidden bearish div on weekly and monthly can give major fall only if sustained selling resumes. Monday was a NR158 days and we will see very big moves soon. Nifty must close above 8519 to continue the rally while a close below 8273 may start a fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.

[vinay28]

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Thursday (07/07/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8307, 8289/78/38/19 and 8162 while resistances are at about 8349/58/75/84, 8412/18/38 and 8447. Unfilled gaps on the lower side are at about 8287/04. Two +WWs can give about 8386 (if above 8325) and 8422 (if above 8348) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 8260 (if below 8325), 8211 (if below 8284) and 8069 (if below 8298) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give 8635 if nifty remains above 8000. A rising wedge can give about 8100/7930 in case nifty sustains below 8380.

Nifty opened up with a small gap but fell to close -ve but well above 8300. Monday's evening star seems to have been confirmed. Daily volume was good -ve and we may see more fall. Also, persistent the hidden bearish div on weekly and monthly can give major fall only if sustained selling resumes. Monday's NR158 day is yet to give very big move. Nifty must close above 8371 to begin with while a close below 8273 may start a fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.

[vinay28]

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Friday (08/07/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8312/06, 8291/77/66/38 and 8167 while resistances are at about 8369/86, 8401/19/25 and 8447. Unfilled gaps on the lower side are at about 8287/04. Two +WWs can give about 8428 (if above 8328) and 8440 (if above 8342) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 8252 (if below 8325), 8204 (if below 8286) and 8067 (if below 8300) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give 8635 if nifty remains above 8000. A rising wedge can give about 8100/7930 in case nifty sustains below 8380.

Nifty opened up with a small gap but made a lower low. But, it remained in a small range to close -ve but well above 8300. Daily candle is a doji but with good +ve volume so further fall may be limited. However, last three days' candles seem to form an imperfect three black crows pattern. Also, there is a mild hidden bearish div in last two candles. hence fall can be more if selling presumes. Monday's NR158 day followed by another NR day are certain to give very big move soon. Nifty must close above 8371 to begin with while a close below 8270 may start a fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.

[vinay28]

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Monday (08/07/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8286/77/50, 8171 and 8164 while resistances are at about 8344/58/67/81/90, 8400/12/24 and 8558. Unfilled gaps on the lower side are at about 8204/8127. Three +WWs can give about 8432, 8473 (if above 8341) and 8489 (if above 8310) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 8252 (if below 8332), 8196 (if below 8286) and 8065 (if below 8302) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give 8635 if nifty remains above 8000. A rising wedge can give about 8100/7930 in case nifty sustains below 8380.

Nifty opened up with a small gap but made a lower low and closed -ve but well above 8300. Daily and weekly volumes are good -ve. Also, weekly candle is like a spinning top cum likely evening star, latter to be confirmed by a red candle, preferably after a gap down open and there is a mild -ve div on weekly. Hence we may see lower levels. Last Monday's NR158 day followed by another NR day on Thursday are now strengthened by a NR27 week and we are certain to see very big moves soon. Nifty must close above 8371 to begin with while a close below 8270 may start a fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.

[vinay28]

I am giving below fundamental and sentimental reasons why I have become extremely bearish since last week. This is not an advice of any kind for trading or investment but just some thoughts. Take your own decisions by consulting a certified financial consultant.

1. About 11.7 trillion dollars are reportedly invested in bond markets worldwide and “they” are refusing to sell even though yield is negative. This is disturbing to say the least.

2. Open derivative position of top five banks/funds is reportedly more than US GDP/debt. Federal Reserve System and/or Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation may start writing to various banks/funds demanding to know their open position. First such letter was written by them jointly on 12/4/16 to J P Morgan Chase, which is the biggest. That letter also gives guidelines in case of bankruptcy, if I have understood the letter correctly. So I am worried that some very big bank like J P Morgan Chase may collapse. If it does, you know too well that, it will pull down most global banks with it.

3. Effects of Brexit are yet to unfold and many may join too putting very existence of EU at stake.

4. Danger of sudden devaluation of Yuan by China since their foreign exchange reserves have fallen a lot and their NPAs (reportedly over 3 trillion $) have shot through the roof. If they decide to write off these NPAs, foreign exchange reserves will be hit hard.

5. Fall of oil price indicating global economic slowdown.

6. Unprecedented fall in Baltic Dry Index.

7. It is clear that the QE has almost failed in Japan and Europe. Worse still is the possibility that more bad news may come out of Europe in coming months. What’s more, QE in US helped only banks and investment banks. While they paid zero or near zero interest on deposits, they pocketed good gains from US securities and thus only strengthened their balance sheets. According to a study, if Japanese banks don’t hike interest rates soon, Japanese economy will go into an abyss. And then there is a real danger of Saudi Arabian collapsing as early as end 2016. Already retrenchment has begun.

8. Crashing oil prices, negative interest rates and geo-political tensions have created a deadly and an as yet “never-tasted before” cocktail. No one is able to predict what effect this will have in the short and medium term on global markets. This may cause high volatility in global markets as funds try to grope their way in darkness. Worse, Indian exports will be hit hard as global economy slides.

9. If all hell breaks loose, markets can tank 20% in no time.

In view of the above, as a matter of abundant precaution, I have already sold 25% of my investment and may sell more on 11/7. I have also bought far away august and sept puts as a hedge for my investment.

Once again, hoping that I am wrong for a change.

[NU2013]

[vinay28]

[anusantosh]

Will you please mention what far away PUTS you bought?

[vinay28]

[NU2013]

[doctorshah]

Vinay Your daily view plz

[vinay28]

[AjitS]