iCharts Discussions

[rk_a2003]

[dynamite_munda11]

rather than deciding ourselves where nifty is heading lets us see and know the entire positions held at the moment

FII:- at the moment hold 34613 index long, 666108 as stock futures short, 23799 as call index short, 384923 as index put long and hv been adding this put long since june expiry and started with 231152 put long. with just mere long in index by 34613 against 91835 held on june expiry FII hv been reducing their long in index and hv switched from long calls index from 37937 to shorts in index calls to 23799. in total they are complete short in index in july series. whether they will take the mkt up and oblige the clients is to be seen . ya hathi ke datt dikhane ke aur hai aur khannae ke aur

CLIENTS:- on the other hand hold 8870 long in index, 716224 stock futures long, 84886 as index call shorts and 154892 as index put shorts . they started the series with index shorts by 85888 and yesterday switched to long positions . in total if call shorts are hedge to put shorts than almost clients stand naked long against Fii almost naked shorts

where its heading its upto you to decide up or down ?

[apka]

i would like to understand what are these numbers.. Value or qty or lots or contracts... And how do you arrive at these figures for fii seperately of longs and shorts? How do you figure they have naked shorts and longs in puts? Then who is buying these high value positions for fii to short and writing the puts for fii to buy?

[vinay28]

Nifty for Monday (21/07/14)

Supports are at about 7648, 7597, 7544 and 7525 while resistances are at about 7691, 7707, 7717, 7742, 7777 and 7838. Previous high is at about 7731 and a lower unfilled gap is at about 7526. 10/20 dma is at about 7593/7600. Two +WWs can give about 7723 and 7796 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 7621 (once below 7686), 7610 (once below 7657), 7587 (once below 7665) and 7530 (once below 7618) (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned as of now).

Nifty rose again to close above 7650 and appears to be bullish. Daily candle is an outside bar and a mild -ve div has appeared on lower tf and we may see a mild reversal. If the mild hidden div on daily chart increases further, it can catapult nifty into a new orbit. A breach of 7650 is the first alert and a close below 20/10 dma may cause further fall. A close above 7720 may mean further rise but only a new high will ensure further rally. VIX can cause wild intraday swings, this being a long expiry. At the same time, liquidity is still abundant and one needs to be careful. Market will continue to dance to FIIs' whims and fancies.

[dynamite_munda11]

[apka]

ok thnks dm

[dynamite_munda11]

average sell value of Fii in index is at 7710.45

total contracts short 9753*50=487500 units

no of contracts bought 36992 value = 1414 cr
no of contracts sold 46745 value =1789 cr

difference 1789-1413=376 cr

3760000000/9753=385522/50=7710.45 average price

[rk_a2003]

It can not be plain vanilla math's, Institutes do hedge their existing portfolio too. It's almost impossible to know whether they are net short or long from the statistics available. If it is not so you will never get in to loss in trading index.

[dynamite_munda11]

[apka]

i dont think you can ascertain.

A contract is a trade which can be of 50qrt or the maximum 10000qty. Wht they cover or long you cannot know by no of contracts.

Secondly, who are the pros and clients who have the risk anf margin capacity to write nakedly. Wouldnt they know the risk involved if winner will be FII.

There are 100s of fii.. If 1 day data suggests they are long and other day short... It can mean anything for current or next 2 month series. 20 fiis maybe long 30 short ... It doesnt mean the same ones have covered their positions.

Index futures and options comprises of both nifty, banknifty.... And nifty options right upto next 5 years..

Moreover the value of sgx futures traded is more than of nifty futures despite the volumes being 25% of nse nifty... Lot of factors influence and can suddenly induce new positions.. I think its unwise to presume that the data shows control and direction in black n white.

[dynamite_munda11]

[apka]

Why are you getting emotional... And who said data is wrong.

I wrote that a contract can be of 50qty or 10000qty in nifty. You were presuming contract x 50qty. If they long 1 contract and 1 short. How will you know the open qty position difference... One trade can be 1000qty and the other 10000qty.


I am not criticising, so try to read with an open mind. I gave example how its only a presumption for the given reasons and not a leading conclusion. Ill be happy to be wrong if there is a leading conclusion that helps trading.

[vinay28]

sanjay, it doesn't make sense to me but I did hear that nse data is, strictly speaking, incorrect as it doesn't take into account all trades. Instead it is best to see sebi data as it is based on T2 basis (God knows what it means). I also don't know where to find it on sebi website. just try to find out.

e.g. last week's sell by goldman sach (FII) of their stake in M&M got reported but the counter buy by their own division in Singapore didn't since it is not considered as a FII but only as a PE. Hence nse doesn't always report correct picture but sebi does, based on what I am told.

In general, I had also posted long ago that one shouldn't go by daily variations in FII data but instead analyse weekly data. The reason is that a lot of FIIs "fund" their large clients (direct funding like a loan is banned) by allowing them to write huge qty of far away options where they are sure that it will be profitable. clients thus get "funding" for doing their trades in cash. the option trades are then squared off in a week or so.

[anuptiwari]

DEAR ALL,
WHAT ALL U R FORGETTING IS THE CASH BASED BUYING BY F2 BY LAST SEVERAL YEARS PUMPING MONEY U ALL ARE SEEING ONLY DERIVATIVE DATA THE DATA IS TRUE SEE IT IN COMPRESSION WITH CASH DATA ALSO. SEVERAL TIMES ITS FOUND THAT FIRST THEY MAKE SHORT IN DERIVATIVE THAN THEY SELL THE CASH MKT.

HOPE IT NOW CLEAR NOW..............

[welgro]