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Nifty View - July Series |
amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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Post: #76  Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2014 6:39 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | riteshucha wrote: | i would like to share this excel sheet which i had (obviously shared by soomeone in this forum only)...
just need to enter the OPEN every day... buy / sell is above/below breach of second level...
can be used effectively to trail and protect profits incase of sudden movements...
once 1 level is taken out after open, buy or sell (whichever direction) and keep SL at the level above or below open price and then keeping trailing by one level after the 3 rd / 4th level so an so forth, is taken out...
ex - today short was below 7731, and first STOP was 7777, then when it took out 7715, TSL becomes 7754, once 7692 was taken out, TSL becomes 7731... book profits as per appetite and keep lowering SL's...
also one point to note here is that these TSL level also act as SAR values... |
have u tested it? |
we shall see if it works going fwd....conceptually i have [problems...since the no are 3/5/8/13/21....and its intra day file?
....so once say 0.013% fall [say13%] has happened ...then change of pullback are higher...so sl is 5% used....it 8% loss from 13% price.....and in terms of opportunity cost.....since 13% value is lower say....then 8% calculated at open price would be even higher percentage in fact 8/(100-13) ie. 9.1 percent.....
when say 8% fall happens then SL is 3% i.e. 5% pullback is lesser.....
that is ....rather than "tightening assured profit" after a "more distant profit level" is hit , it would only enable "lesser assured profits".....
i only mean to say that other SL systems should be better than this.....i cannot confirm what each one uses or price reading...or intra day chart pattern etc....but this one seems not so high conviction method....problem is when you test this....we will calculate profits assured and miss calculating opportunity loss ....... |
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riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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| Post: #77 Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2014 12:41 pm Post subject: |
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| what do expect or can gauge for monday's movement vinay... reason i m asking is u mentioned something interesting abt yest's candle... |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #78 Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2014 4:12 pm Post subject: |
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| riteshucha wrote: | | what do expect or can gauge for monday's movement vinay... reason i m asking is u mentioned something interesting abt yest's candle... |
ritesh, I called it interesting because yesterday's candle, though bullish engulfing, is also a hanging man with a reversal success ratio of about 41%, which means uptrend can continue 59% of the time. However, volume is low and -ve div persists on daily chart.
But, this -ve div can remain for days or weeks even as nifty goes up. Also, weekly candle has completed what looks like a Mat Hold pattern (though not a perfect one), which is a very rare pattern and is bullish. In addition, weekly chart is still good for uptrend. What's more, nifty gave target of BD of a DT and then reversed above upper TL of the DT, which is also bullish. Bulls should hope that nifty doesn't form right angled descending and broadening triangle. Otherwise, we will see 7660 broken again.
Hence, it seems that nifty will move up. About 7825-30 is crucial and I intend to short around that. If taken out, about 7925-7955 is a strong resistance zone. Only if that is taken out, nifty can manage 8070/8120.
I have slowly started selling my investment.
Last edited by vinay28 on Sat Jul 05, 2014 8:45 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #79 Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2014 6:52 pm Post subject: |
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| adding to the interesting quotient here's weekly candle peak in oct 2010 comparison to last few weeks. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #80 Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2014 7:19 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | adding to the interesting quotient here's weekly candle peak in oct 2010 comparison to last few weeks. |
that's what I meant, apka. thanks. But the main difference is that, in Nov '10, nifty was trying to make a new high while, now, it is already well past that. However, volume and rsi are similar. |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #81 Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:37 pm Post subject: |
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See attached.
Keep track of PE Ratio & Dividend Yeild of Nifty / Sensex from hereon. PE Ratio of Nifty is around 20.50-21 right now and resistence as per trendline is falling between 22-23. Not sure what figure that implies for Nifty. If anyone knows the calculation, then please share.
Also attached return calculation depending on PE ratio of Nifty and dividend yeild correlation.
CNX Defty also gave breakout of falling trendline on month chart in last month. But resistence for it is roughly 400 points away which is approx same for Nifty value but dependant of usdinr movement. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #82 Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:58 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | See attached.
Keep track of PE Ratio & Dividend Yeild of Nifty / Sensex from hereon. PE Ratio of Nifty is around 20.50-21 right now and resistence as per trendline is falling between 22-23. Not sure what figure that implies for Nifty. If anyone knows the calculation, then please share.
Also attached return calculation depending on PE ratio of Nifty and dividend yeild correlation.
CNX Defty also gave breakout of falling trendline on month chart in last month. But resistence for it is roughly 400 points away which is approx same for Nifty value but dependant of usdinr movement. |
apka, in response to someone, I posted a few days ago that experts look at forward PE, which is about 16-17 and market peaks out between 20-25. so a long way to go for a major reaction.
incidentally, w.r.t to your earlier observation, nifty chart is similar every 10 years but crash is every 8 years.
also, watch ratio of cboe vix and indiavix. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #83 Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2014 10:36 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | See attached.
Keep track of PE Ratio & Dividend Yeild of Nifty / Sensex from hereon. PE Ratio of Nifty is around 20.50-21 right now and resistence as per trendline is falling between 22-23. Not sure what figure that implies for Nifty. If anyone knows the calculation, then please share.
Also attached return calculation depending on PE ratio of Nifty and dividend yeild correlation.
CNX Defty also gave breakout of falling trendline on month chart in last month. But resistence for it is roughly 400 points away which is approx same for Nifty value but dependant of usdinr movement. |
apka, in response to someone, I posted a few days ago that experts look at forward PE, which is about 16-17 and market peaks out between 20-25. so a long way to go for a major reaction.
incidentally, w.r.t to your earlier observation, nifty chart is similar every 10 years but crash is every 8 years.
also, watch ratio of cboe vix and indiavix. |
Can you share about CBOE Vix and India VIX what is it now and your observation or levels to watch.
Forward PE Ratio is 16-17? How is that lower I don't understand? You wouldn't have a chart for the forward pe ratio would you?
Although the figure 20-25 as you have stated is what historically must have been seen, but then we were growing at a rapid rate. At present we don't even know whether economy falling has hit it's low yet or not.... It's just a thought.
Jan 2008 had Nifty PE @ 28 or so... P/B was about 6.5 and dividend yeild near 1
Nov 2010 had Nifty PE @ 25.50 when P/B was about 3.95, dividend yeild 1.05...
July 2014 has Nifty PE @ 20.99 ... P/B about 3.5, dividend yeild 1.26
You are right scope is there... but the figures could also mean lack of bullish strength of being invested compared to 2008 and 2010. |
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saumya12
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
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| Post: #84 Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2014 10:42 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | saumya12 wrote: | My observation
If NF crosses 7700 decisively then be ready for 7800 - 7850 and may be 7900 (not sure, but will update) in near future. Not necessary in a shoot, may be a zig zag, as NF always moves
But cant say on timing, when. |
Yes jt mkky me Rita all already mentioned that
Jt. 7930
Me 7930/7991
Rita 8300
Vinay 8000 he mentioned i think at start or before series?
Milky likewise |
Thanks Amit for pointing out.
Perhaps due to the paucity of time I havnt gone thro the posts in IC |
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amitagg
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #85 Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2014 10:47 pm Post subject: |
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| saumya12 wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | saumya12 wrote: | My observation
If NF crosses 7700 decisively then be ready for 7800 - 7850 and may be 7900 (not sure, but will update) in near future. Not necessary in a shoot, may be a zig zag, as NF always moves
But cant say on timing, when. |
Yes jt mkky me Rita all already mentioned that
Jt. 7930
Me 7930/7991
Rita 8300
Vinay 8000 he mentioned i think at start or before series?
Milky likewise |
Thanks Amit for pointing out.
Perhaps due to the paucity of time I havnt gone thro the posts in IC |
important thing is basis of calc
- rita - ew count purely
- me : pivot monthly
- jt : its again pivot he uses - i may be wrong
- vinay.: market insight / hedge fund /fii .aka. own view 
- mikky....dont know....trend follower
- welgro : pointed 7750 basis some chart pattern earlier dont remember
u what basis??? |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #86 Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2014 11:00 pm Post subject: |
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| saumya12 wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | saumya12 wrote: | My observation
If NF crosses 7700 decisively then be ready for 7800 - 7850 and may be 7900 (not sure, but will update) in near future. Not necessary in a shoot, may be a zig zag, as NF always moves
But cant say on timing, when. |
Yes jt mkky me Rita all already mentioned that
Jt. 7930
Me 7930/7991
Rita 8300
Vinay 8000 he mentioned i think at start or before series?
Milky likewise |
Thanks Amit for pointing out.
Perhaps due to the paucity of time I havnt gone thro the posts in IC |
As long as the info is pomped at us by Amit we won't miss. |
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saumya12
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
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| Post: #87 Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2014 11:39 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | saumya12 wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | saumya12 wrote: | My observation
If NF crosses 7700 decisively then be ready for 7800 - 7850 and may be 7900 (not sure, but will update) in near future. Not necessary in a shoot, may be a zig zag, as NF always moves
But cant say on timing, when. |
Yes jt mkky me Rita all already mentioned that
Jt. 7930
Me 7930/7991
Rita 8300
Vinay 8000 he mentioned i think at start or before series?
Milky likewise |
Thanks Amit for pointing out.
Perhaps due to the paucity of time I havnt gone thro the posts in IC |
important thing is basis of calc
- rita - ew count purely
- me : pivot monthly
- jt : its again pivot he uses - i may be wrong
- vinay.: market insight / hedge fund /fii .aka. own view
- mikky....dont know....trend follower
- welgro : pointed 7750 basis some chart pattern earlier dont remember
u what basis??? |
The basis of my levels
Hmmm
You wont believe,
Its chart gazing only, and nothing else |
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saumya12
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
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| Post: #88 Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 12:04 am Post subject: |
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Hi Ritesh
Good intraday levels, for NF and BNF
Wont ask you the basis of deriving these levels
Must be very useful for IC members
Keep posting. |
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dynamite_munda11
Yellow Belt
Joined: 14 Nov 2010
Posts: 681
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| Post: #89 Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 7:29 am Post subject: nifty daily |
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nifty daily
resistance lvls 7761/7790/7799/7805/7849/7856/7860
only close above 7850/7860 we can see lvls of 7935/8041 |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #90 Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 9:04 am Post subject: |
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| saumya12 wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | saumya12 wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | saumya12 wrote: | My observation
If NF crosses 7700 decisively then be ready for 7800 - 7850 and may be 7900 (not sure, but will update) in near future. Not necessary in a shoot, may be a zig zag, as NF always moves
But cant say on timing, when. |
Yes jt mkky me Rita all already mentioned that
Jt. 7930
Me 7930/7991
Rita 8300
Vinay 8000 he mentioned i think at start or before series?
Milky likewise |
Thanks Amit for pointing out.
Perhaps due to the paucity of time I havnt gone thro the posts in IC |
important thing is basis of calc
- rita - ew count purely
- me : pivot monthly
- jt : its again pivot he uses - i may be wrong
- vinay.: market insight / hedge fund /fii .aka. own view
- mikky....dont know....trend follower
- welgro : pointed 7750 basis some chart pattern earlier dont remember
u what basis??? |
The basis of my levels
Hmmm
You wont believe,
Its chart gazing only, and nothing else |
I knew it... One look by you and the chart would reveal its plan. |
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