| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Nifty View - July Series |
saumya12
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
|
Post: #91  Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 11:05 am Post subject: |
 |
|
| apka wrote: | | saumya12 wrote: |
The basis of my levels
Hmmm
You wont believe,
Its chart gazing only, and nothing else  |
I knew it... One look by you and the chart would reveal its plan. |
AJ, Tumhara matlab kya hai.  |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
|
|
|
saumya12
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
|
| Post: #92 Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 11:08 am Post subject: Re: nifty daily |
|
|
| dynamite_munda11 wrote: | nifty daily
resistance lvls 7761/7790/7799/7805/7849/7856/7860
only close above 7850/7860 we can see lvls of 7935/8041 |
Good chart, DM
And also the contents.
Must appreciate it. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #93 Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 11:20 am Post subject: Re: nifty daily |
|
|
| dynamite_munda11 wrote: | nifty daily
resistance lvls 7761/7790/7799/7805/7849/7856/7860
only close above 7850/7860 we can see lvls of 7935/8041 |
DAMN GOOD one sanjay. some of your levels are similar to mine. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #94 Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 11:24 am Post subject: |
|
|
| saumya12 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | saumya12 wrote: |
The basis of my levels
Hmmm
You wont believe,
Its chart gazing only, and nothing else |
I knew it... One look by you and the chart would reveal its plan. |
AJ, Tumhara matlab kya hai. |
pl show your clouds saumya. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #95 Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 11:49 am Post subject: |
|
|
| apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | apka, in response to someone, I posted a few days ago that experts look at forward PE, which is about 16-17 and market peaks out between 20-25. so a long way to go for a major reaction.
incidentally, w.r.t to your earlier observation, nifty chart is similar every 10 years but crash is every 8 years.
also, watch ratio of cboe vix and indiavix. |
Can you share about CBOE Vix and India VIX what is it now and your observation or levels to watch.
CBOE vix is I think 10.32 and India vix 18.155. Unfortunately I don't keep track of my earlier posts but I had posted last year that when their ratio is about 1.50 (again not sure whether it is correct figure and also not sure ratio which way), market reaches peak.
Forward PE Ratio is 16-17? How is that lower I don't understand? You wouldn't have a chart for the forward pe ratio would you?
Forward PE is based on at least 2015 earning but probably 2016 earnings. at Jan 2008 peak, such a PE was I think 25.
Although the figure 20-25 as you have stated is what historically must have been seen, but then we were growing at a rapid rate. At present we don't even know whether economy falling has hit it's low yet or not.... It's just a thought.
You are right and that's why I said nifty is still some time away from a major reaction as it has to discount GDP growth. Also, 2004-08 was our first major bull market and even FIIs were taking advantage of our ignorance then, which is not the case now. In addition, there are too many FIIs now, as compared to 2008, with conflicting views. e.g. I heard that even as many FIIs are selling, Nomura's ETF is buying heavily. ETFs are short term traders and they don't bother about even the most conservative supports and resistance.
Jan 2008 had Nifty PE @ 28 or so... P/B was about 6.5 and dividend yeild near 1
Nov 2010 had Nifty PE @ 25.50 when P/B was about 3.95, dividend yeild 1.05...
July 2014 has Nifty PE @ 20.99 ... P/B about 3.5, dividend yeild 1.26
May be but we will never know how FIIs interpret it. Also, you forgot to mention GDP growth at above times to get a clearer picture.
You are right scope is there... but the figures could also mean lack of bullish strength of being invested compared to 2008 and 2010. |
the biggest spoiler will be monsoon and we will know only by end July. Incidentally, period between 11th and 20th July (or 10th august) can be very turbulent. Soon after budget, results seasons starts.
Last year, I had also given a figure of about 7980 by august/sept but looks like it will happen in July itself. one must trade with caution. As I posted earlier, I have slowly started selling my investment even if I have to buy later at higher level. but wait out next 3 months is what I believe now as I feel picture may be clearer by then.[/b] |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
|
| Post: #96 Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 12:02 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| saumya12 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | saumya12 wrote: |
The basis of my levels
Hmmm
You wont believe,
Its chart gazing only, and nothing else |
I knew it... One look by you and the chart would reveal its plan. |
AJ, Tumhara matlab kya hai. |
ki ankhiyon se goli maare   |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #97 Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 12:13 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| apka wrote: | | ki ankhiyon se goli maare |
now that's what I call ...........  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
|
| Post: #98 Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 12:17 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Thanks for the info vinay.
Yeh the part about more active FIIs after 2008 and accordingly as many investment and trading views would be true. That's why Nifty is at a tantalising point, can't short or long full heartedly. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
saumya12
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
|
| Post: #99 Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 12:21 pm Post subject: |
|
|
NIFTY (NS)
As my knowledge of Ichimoku is limited, and the price is in uncharted area, it is very difficult to say anything.
However, in general, as per hourly chart, the supports are at 7710 - 7690 - 7640. 1 - 2 down moves is possible, particularly upto 10.30 - 11 am and after 2 pm and may reach around/touch/break first support of 7710.
And, as per daily chart, support is at 7620 and if breaks then 7440 is possible and IMO, we can this level in near future, may be after some time. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #100 Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 12:30 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| saumya12 wrote: | NIFTY (NS)
As my knowledge of Ichimoku is limited, and the price is in uncharted area, it is very difficult to say anything.
However, in general, as per hourly chart, the supports are at 7710 - 7690 - 7640. 1 - 2 down moves is possible, particularly upto 10.30 - 11 am and after 2 pm and may reach around/touch/break first support of 7710.
And, as per daily chart, support is at 7620 and if breaks then 7440 is possible and IMO, we can this level in near future, may be after some time. |
thank you dear for a prompt reply in spite of your partyless promotion!
yes, u r right. it is uncertain times |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #101 Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 12:32 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| apka wrote: | Thanks for the info vinay.
Yeh the part about more active FIIs after 2008 and accordingly as many investment and trading views would be true. That's why Nifty is at a tantalising point, can't short or long full heartedly. |
indeed "AJ"! 
in fact, I am already short and in loss but will probably carry it till "death" of settlement. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
dynamite_munda11
Yellow Belt
Joined: 14 Nov 2010
Posts: 681
|
| Post: #102 Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 3:23 pm Post subject: Re: nifty daily |
|
|
| vinay28 wrote: | | dynamite_munda11 wrote: | nifty daily
resistance lvls 7761/7790/7799/7805/7849/7856/7860
only close above 7850/7860 we can see lvls of 7935/8041 |
DAMN GOOD one sanjay. some of your levels are similar to mine. |
thank you Vinay ji and Saumya12 ji |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #103 Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 4:31 pm Post subject: Re: nifty daily |
|
|
| dynamite_munda11 wrote: | nifty daily
resistance lvls 7761/7790/7799/7805/7849/7856/7860
only close above 7850/7860 we can see lvls of 7935/8041 |
sanjay, just a thought. what diff fibo extensions will you get based on rise from 908-6357 or 2253-6339 or 4531-6230 or 5119-6415? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
|
| Post: #104 Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 11:16 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Thanks a lot saumya.. Its kinda payback to all the ic gurus that I have learnt from maybe in my own little way... Happy to contribute...
For Monday, Friday's intra buy tgt of 7812/7811 needs to be watched carefully...I intend to short there... Sl will update after 9.30 based on levels generated... |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
dynamite_munda11
Yellow Belt
Joined: 14 Nov 2010
Posts: 681
|
| Post: #105 Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 5:46 am Post subject: Re: nifty daily |
|
|
| vinay28 wrote: | | dynamite_munda11 wrote: | nifty daily
resistance lvls 7761/7790/7799/7805/7849/7856/7860
only close above 7850/7860 we can see lvls of 7935/8041 |
sanjay, just a thought. what diff fibo extensions will you get based on rise from 908-6357 or 2253-6339 or 4531-6230 or 5119-6415? |
Vinay ji ,
from 4531-6229-5118 the max hv been looking at is at 7865 at the moment as far as fibb ratio is concerned
and from 5118-6415-5933 hv been looking at 7856/7925/8031 as max |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
