iCharts Discussions

[vinay28]

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Monday (08/06/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 8103, 8079, 8062, 8044 and 8000 while resistances are at about 8136, 8171, 8210, 8232, 8308 and 8322. A previous low was about 7997. A +WW can give about 8176 (if above 8094) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 8021 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 7950 if nifty continues to fall.

Nifty fell again after an intraday rally to close -ve but above 8100. In the process the weekly close was not only below 50 wdma/wema but also the lowest since Oct '14 and thus continues to bearish. Daily candle is an inverted hammer. However, the bullish div remains and we may see a sharp recovery soon. A close below 8057/29 may mean more pain while a close above 8332 can take it higher. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Trade carefully as vix can cause wild intraday swings.

[vinay28]

Updated NF levels.

[Niftyman]

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[vinay28]

Some loud thinking and not a tip or an advice for trading:

Candles on 17/12, 7/1, 27/3, 7/5 and 5/6 are similar in that they are all hammers or doji. The difference among them is that rsi on 17/12, 27/3 and 7/5 was below 32 i.e. well below 40 and hence nifty reversed sharply. However, the combination of 17/12 and 7/1 matches with that on 7/5 and 4/6 in that, in spite of an earlier hammer, nifty retraced towards previous low. That is one reason I feel why nifty may reverse from here, apart from the hammer and inverted hammer in last 2 days.

There is also the bullish div on both daily and weekly which supports this feeling. Bullish div on daily will vanish if nifty breaks below 7997/7967 and rsi breaks below 31.81/28.16 resp. That's the danger. But then we will see +ve div and so there is still a hope.

However, bullish div on weekly will get stronger and stronger even if nifty continues to fall to as much as 5200. Clearly, therefore, such a div or any other indicator/pattern can not take nifty up but only strong buying will. I have a feeling that FIIs may begin buying since they have no other avenue left and that they are still in loss in real dollar terms. Also, there was no euphoria when nifty went to 9119 and I feel market can not crash without euphoria, which I feel will come at much much higher levels. One more reason for hope it is that it is still above monthly TL from Sept '13. The first +ve sign will be a close above 200 dma for 3 consecutive days.

Now about vix, which is looking strong unless it starts closing below 15.50 consistently. However, nifty has not always fallen when vix went up. In addition, the simple correlation between vix and nifty has changed since trading began in vix. If buying in cash does emerge as I feel it will, then I feel vix will go to 12. I guess we should know what is going to happen by end of next week. A weekly close above 8342 will give hopes so will a daily close above 8459. However, to begin with, daily close above 8127/8182/8214 and then 8319 should happen. I feel we will see a +ve next week.

I must also give danger signals on downside. So, a daily close below 8057/8029/7997/7961 and weekly close below 8105/7997/7961 can make me nervous. As of now, if I must predict, I am still hoping to see at least 8630 in june.

[vinay28]

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Tuesday (09/06/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 8004, 7968 and 7958 while resistances are at about 8069, 8111, 8125, 8170 and 8213. A previous low was about 7997. Four +WWs can give about 8100/8206 (if above 8050), 8120 (if above 8030) and 8152 (if above 8075) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 7983 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 7400 if nifty breaks and sustains below 8000.

Nifty fell again and closed at a new low for the year, below 8050 and thus continues to bearish. However, there is a +ve div on lower tf and we may see some recovery. A close below 8029 may mean more pain while a close above 8182 can take it higher. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Trade carefully as vix can cause wild intraday swings.

[apka]

Vinay, though charts seems to suggest trend may reverse as you have indicated in your reasons... But historically nifty remains in bearish grip during the rainy season... So how should one approach for next series fut trading I.e. july. Futures / nifty levels.

[vinay28]

[riteshucha]

seems S&P broke its 100 DMA... wonder if effects are gonna play out here...

today longs safe only if NF crosses 8077, till then sell on rise...

[vinay28]

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Wednesday (10/06/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 8002/7999, 7976 and 7958 while resistances are at about 8052, 8081, 8125 and 8213. A previous low was about 7997 while a previous unfilled gap was at about 7927. Four +WWs can give about 8096 (if above 8014), 8107 (if above 8004), 8199 (if above 8029) and 8210 (if above 8047) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 7987 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 7400 if nifty breaks and sustains below 8000.

Nifty closed -ve after small range and at a new low for the year, below 8050 and thus continues to bearish. However, there is a +ve div on lower tf and we may see some recovery. A close above 8057 is necessary for further upmove to begin with. Tuesday was a NR14 day and we may see a big move on Wednesday. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Trade carefully as vix can cause wild intraday swings.

[vinay28]

I will leave it to your interpretation.

[apka]

Hmm, also looks like HnS has formed.

[vinay28]

[riteshucha]

buy safe only if NF crosses, 8119 for tgts 8141, 8164, 8187.. if manages to close above 8160, then tgt 8258

dicy below 8077, and sell below 8059 for tgts 8036, 8014, 7991 and below 7991, could go all the way to 7924..

[riteshucha]

8000 PE open high same, BN spot open low same.. NS open low almost same, SGX open low same at 7996...

NS 8057 is crucial...

kya hoga vinay!!

[amitagg]

Bank nifty was NR4 and Nr7 was past 2 days and give can give one more up thrust..........long term target is Much much down rather than up though for positional.