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Nifty View - June 2013
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Author Nifty View - June 2013
vinay28
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Post: #196   PostPosted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 5:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
A lot of FIIs have been talking about a new high by Dec. Just see these values

Dec '13 - 6500CE is 130 and 5500PE is 115 with CMP 5936NF in early june.

I am giving the above since they have highest OI among "far OTM" options
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vinay28
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Post: #197   PostPosted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 7:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
apka, is it possible to know cumulative vol in NF upto 2.40 pm and that after 2.40?
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apka
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Post: #198   PostPosted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 8:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
approximately vinay, 10.23 million volumes till 2.40pm. after that about 2.15 million were traded. overall 12.38 million.
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vinay28
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Post: #199   PostPosted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 8:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
apka wrote:
approximately vinay, 10.23 million volumes till 2.40pm. after that about 2.15 million were traded. overall 12.38 million.


Now you see the problem? Before 2.40, nifty rose 86 points before 2.40 and then fell 44 even though vol was 20%. AND, in spite of that net FII fig is -ve today.
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apka
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Post: #200   PostPosted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 8:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
vinay28 wrote:
apka wrote:
approximately vinay, 10.23 million volumes till 2.40pm. after that about 2.15 million were traded. overall 12.38 million.


Now you see the problem? Before 2.40, nifty rose 86 points before 2.40 and then fell 44 even though vol was 20%. AND, in spite of that net FII fig is -ve today.


sorry didn't get what you are implying?
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apka
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Post: #201   PostPosted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 8:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
30th may 2013 was expiry.


may series future:
22nd may 2013, total OI EOD was 266 lakhs. nifty close 6104.05
23rd may 2013, total OI EOD was 250 lakhs. nifty close 5966.1
24th may 2013, total OI EOD was 242 lakhs. nifty close 5985.4
27th may 2013, total OI EOD was 220 lakhs. nifty close 6083.45
28th may 2013, total OI EOD was 184 lakhs. nifty close 6109.4
29th may 2013, total OI EOD was 160 lakhs. nifty close 6090.25
30th may 2013, total OI EOD was 140 lakhs. nifty close 6124.2

june series future:
22nd may 2013, total OI EOD was 19 lakhs. nifty close 6114.1
23rd may 2013, total OI EOD was 23 lakhs. nifty close 5975.6
24th may 2013, total OI EOD was 27 lakhs. nifty close 5999.2
27th may 2013, total OI EOD was 52 lakhs. nifty close 6102.75
28th may 2013, total OI EOD was 99 lakhs. nifty close 6131.55
29th may 2013, total OI EOD was 131 lakhs. nifty close 6110.40
30th may 2013, total OI EOD was 176 lakhs. nifty close 6131.25
31st may 2013, total OI EOD was 152 lakhs. nifty close 6000.05
3rd june 2013, total OI EOD was 138 lakhs. nifty close 5959.20
4th june 2013, total OI EOD was 134 lakhs. nifty close 5932.35
5th june 2013, total OI EOD was 131 lakhs. nifty close 5938.30
6th june 2013, total OI EOD was 125 lakhs. nifty close 5936.85

high point was 22-may-2013 with 266 lakhs OI. After that OI has been downhill, with max addition on expiry day for june series at 176 lakhs, thats it.

future hasn't breached 5930 on closing basis yet.

-- Meanwhile in currencies:

1) Dollar index from 84.xx -> 81.99 right now. (about 250 basis depreciation)

2) EUR/INR 70.50 -> 75.000 right now. (450 bps depreciation against euro)

3) USD/INR 54.80 -> 56.850 right now. (200 bps depreciation against dollar)

4) EUR/USD 1.2850 -> 1.3184 right now. (334 bps appreciation against dollar)
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vinay28
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Post: #202   PostPosted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 8:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
apka wrote:
sorry didn't get what you are implying?


How can FII fig be -ve with such disparity in vol? Some play going on in Options.

Something tells me (don't have logic/reason) we will see a big 200-400 point move in few days, either way, probably starting Monday.
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apka
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Post: #203   PostPosted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 9:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
ok.

for the moment europe is down more than -1% and sgx 5905.. if US also goes red, we may again see new low...

so far the activity is also subdued in equity buying/selling like in nifty futures. DII FII net figures not exceeding 200-300 crs for 4 trading days in june so far.
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Raynor
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Post: #204   PostPosted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 9:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
pairing nifty with U.S. market is too dangerous i think. today l lost and took loss. only reason for this is i watched the US market , Today morning.
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chandrujimrc
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Post: #205   PostPosted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 9:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
I think apka fighting for bears and vinay for bulls.
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vinay28
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Post: #206   PostPosted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 9:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Raynor wrote:
pairing nifty with U.S. market is too dangerous i think. today l lost and took loss. only reason for this is i watched the US market , Today morning.


you are right, nifty has underperformed global markets for quite some time and can behave diferently. In fact money taken out of there can come here. Smile
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apka
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Post: #207   PostPosted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 9:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Raynor wrote:
pairing nifty with U.S. market is too dangerous i think. today l lost and took loss. only reason for this is i watched the US market , Today morning.


i dont trade seeing US markets on daily basis. But i keep track.
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apka
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Post: #208   PostPosted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 9:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
chandrujimrc wrote:
I think apka fighting for bears and vinay for bulls.


Hehe that was till today mrng. Now i am long.
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Raynor
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Post: #209   PostPosted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 10:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
apka wrote:

i dont trade seeing US markets on daily basis. But i keep track.


Sir, but seeing Us market confuses me, creates expectation, so i widened the stoploss. implication, loss got increased. Thk u....
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apka
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Post: #210   PostPosted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 11:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Raynor wrote:
apka wrote:

i dont trade seeing US markets on daily basis. But i keep track.


Sir, but seeing Us market confuses me, creates expectation, so i widened the stoploss. implication, loss got increased. Thk u....


yes correct, u should not trade directly as per US. expectation will go away with time. But if global markets are down, one has to be cautious in longs.. and vice versa... hence always keep track.
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