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Nifty View - June Series 2014 |
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #46  Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 1:37 pm Post subject: |
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| I feel buying exhaustion may begin now |
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amitagg76
White Belt
Joined: 31 May 2014
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| Post: #47 Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 2:13 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | I feel buying exhaustion may begin now |
Sold 7600 call at 72 resistance heavy 7670......risky but making profits selling call outs of late......7624-7670 shall not likely be cleared on closing June basis despite euphoria |
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riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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| Post: #48 Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 2:38 pm Post subject: |
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| just like yest Infy making a late move... |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #49 Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 2:56 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg76 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | I feel buying exhaustion may begin now |
Sold 7600 call at 72 resistance heavy 7670......risky but making profits selling call outs of late......7624-7670 shall not likely be cleared on closing June basis despite euphoria |
u could have bought NF as hedge, just to be safe. but 7600ce is good choice I guess |
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amitagg76
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Joined: 31 May 2014
Posts: 6
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| Post: #50 Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 5:17 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | amitagg76 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | I feel buying exhaustion may begin now |
Sold 7600 call at 72 resistance heavy 7670......risky but making profits selling call outs of late......7624-7670 shall not likely be cleared on closing June basis despite euphoria |
u could have bought NF as hedge, just to be safe. but 7600ce is good choice I guess |
I am ain't worried .....buying NF only above 7700 can be considered. (With tight stop).........there are important 3-5 parameters hitting 7670......and we shall see either fall or few weeks consolidation at that level...... |
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amitagg76
White Belt
Joined: 31 May 2014
Posts: 6
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| Post: #51 Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 6:57 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg76 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | amitagg76 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | I feel buying exhaustion may begin now |
Sold 7600 call at 72 resistance heavy 7670......risky but making profits selling call outs of late......7624-7670 shall not likely be cleared on closing June basis despite euphoria |
u could have bought NF as hedge, just to be safe. but 7600ce is good choice I guess |
I am ain't worried .....buying NF only above 7700 can be considered. (With tight stop).........there are important 3-5 parameters hitting 7670......and we shall see either fall or few weeks consolidation at that level...... |
Also since since last year I was talking of 7800 which is near and I have learned not to challenge the trend (learning coming in form or scaling in....or reduced volumes....and better selling otm options instead of pure futures play.....)I shall look to intra day add to the position on Monday......I expect positive return from the overall trades.....shall update |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #52 Posted: Sat Jun 07, 2014 4:29 pm Post subject: |
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Nifty for Monday (09/06/14)
Supports are at about 7561, 7540, 7529 and 7446 while resistances are at about 7647 and 7669. An unfilled gap on lower side is at about 7474. A +WW can give about 7652 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 7438/7370 (once below 7506) and 7232/7157 (once below 7524) (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A rising wedge can give about 7360 as a first level if nifty goes and remains below 7558.
Nifty rose again to make a new all time high and closed just below 7600 and at a new all time high and is on a rampage. But, there is a mild -ve div on daily and weekly charts and volume is not convincing implying possible exhaustion. Hence, a reaction looks imminent. Also, vix is rising. However, liquidity is still abundant. A break below 7558/24/06 can be a sign of reversal and a close below 7474 may accelerate it. With all major news behind us, market will now dance to FIIs' tune/liquidity. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #53 Posted: Sat Jun 07, 2014 4:34 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | assuming constant vix, nifty range for 30 days from 29/5 is 7584-6887. |
high was 7590. need to watch nifty move tmrw onwards carefully. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #54 Posted: Sat Jun 07, 2014 4:43 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | assuming constant vix, nifty range for 30 days from 29/5 is 7584-6887. |
high was 7590. need to watch nifty move tmrw onwards carefully. |
good catch |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #55 Posted: Sat Jun 07, 2014 6:50 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | assuming constant vix, nifty range for 30 days from 29/5 is 7584-6887. |
high was 7590. need to watch nifty move tmrw onwards carefully. |
good catch |
Even 99 percent statistical probability estimates don't work in thus start of new bull market.......start!!!!! |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #56 Posted: Sat Jun 07, 2014 7:36 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | assuming constant vix, nifty range for 30 days from 29/5 is 7584-6887. |
high was 7590. need to watch nifty move tmrw onwards carefully. |
good catch |
Even 99 percent statistical probability estimates don't work in thus start of new bull market.......start!!!!! |
vix is not a statistical probability |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #57 Posted: Sun Jun 08, 2014 9:41 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | assuming constant vix, nifty range for 30 days from 29/5 is 7584-6887. |
high was 7590. need to watch nifty move tmrw onwards carefully. |
good catch |
Even 99 percent statistical probability estimates don't work in thus start of new bull market.......start!!!!! |
vix is not a statistical probability |
Ok then that means that for market to move beyond 7600 vix should rise, and we need to monitor that....are there are viz levels to watch |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #58 Posted: Sun Jun 08, 2014 9:57 am Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | assuming constant vix, nifty range for 30 days from 29/5 is 7584-6887. |
high was 7590. need to watch nifty move tmrw onwards carefully. |
good catch |
Even 99 percent statistical probability estimates don't work in thus start of new bull market.......start!!!!! |
vix is not a statistical probability |
Ok then that means that for market to move beyond 7600 vix should rise, and we need to monitor that....are there are viz levels to watch |
as I posted yesterday, vix seems to be rising, so this range could extend a bit but, IMHO, exhaustion is seen now along with -ve div. And vix can also rise as market tends to react. so if nifty reacts 300-400 points next week, that would be good. But if it doesn't react, we may see 8000 in june itself as I posted, I think, on 17th May and pre-budget rally will be confirmed. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #59 Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 10:36 am Post subject: |
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| today's gap in NS was filled during first 5 min. First time a gap is filled in some days. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #60 Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 11:59 am Post subject: |
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As the president finished his speech, he pressed a button and market reacted.  |
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