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Nifty View - June Series 2014 |
vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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Post: #61  Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 1:19 pm Post subject: |
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| Nifty may be forming a HnS. If it does then breach of 7625 could see more fall. |
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amitagg
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
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| Post: #62 Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 3:25 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | Nifty may be forming a HnS. If it does then breach of 7625 could see more fall. |
exactly....the confluence of resistances at 7670-7690 holding.....and likely to give one reaction down.....even if there is a "final gap up" tmorrow. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #63 Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 6:11 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | Nifty may be forming a HnS. If it does then breach of 7625 could see more fall. |
exactly....the confluence of resistances at 7670-7690 holding.....and likely to give one reaction down.....even if there is a "final gap up" tmorrow. |
HnS didn't form but I am still waiting to see if 7690/7720NF are taken out. If yes then 7975 possible. surprisingly, in spite of new highs with gap up open on 2 consecutive days, -ve div persists. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #64 Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 8:50 pm Post subject: |
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Nifty for Tuesday (10/06/14)
Supports are at about 7639, 7612, 7584 and 7470 while resistances are at about 7695, 7703, 7739 and 7825. An unfilled gap on lower side is at about 7474. Three +WWs can give about 7695, 7720 and 7745 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 7472 (once below 7584) and 7439 (once below 7530) (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A rising wedge can give about 7360 as a first level if nifty goes and remains below 7640.
Nifty rose again to make a new all time high and closed just above 7650 and at a new all time high and continues to be bullish. But, the -ve div persists on daily chart and volume is not convincing, implying possible exhaustion. Also, the daily candle is like an evening star. Hence, a reaction looks imminent. Also, vix is rising. However, liquidity is still abundant and it's difficult to assess when reaction will start. A close below 7619 can be a sign of reversal and a close below 7474 may accelerate it. With all major news behind us, market will now dance to FIIs' tune/liquidity. |
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riteshucha
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Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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| Post: #65 Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2014 10:30 am Post subject: |
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there's no support between 7584 to 7470?? a gap of 100 points?
| vinay28 wrote: | Nifty for Tuesday (10/06/14)
Supports are at about 7639, 7612, 7584 and 7470 while resistances are at about 7695, 7703, 7739 and 7825. An unfilled gap on lower side is at about 7474. Three +WWs can give about 7695, 7720 and 7745 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 7472 (once below 7584) and 7439 (once below 7530) (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A rising wedge can give about 7360 as a first level if nifty goes and remains below 7640.
Nifty rose again to make a new all time high and closed just above 7650 and at a new all time high and continues to be bullish. But, the -ve div persists on daily chart and volume is not convincing, implying possible exhaustion. Also, the daily candle is like an evening star. Hence, a reaction looks imminent. Also, vix is rising. However, liquidity is still abundant and it's difficult to assess when reaction will start. A close below 7619 can be a sign of reversal and a close below 7474 may accelerate it. With all major news behind us, market will now dance to FIIs' tune/liquidity. |
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riteshucha
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| Post: #66 Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2014 10:35 am Post subject: |
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axis / LT /adani ent / Adani Ent 500 CE / 7300 CE too... open high same... good chance of further downside... (will look to sell closer to high's)
7500 PE / 7600 PE / Auro pharma... OPEN low same... good chance of upside.. (will look to buy closer to low's) |
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vinay28
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| Post: #67 Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2014 10:47 am Post subject: |
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| riteshucha wrote: | | there's no support between 7584 to 7470?? a gap of 100 points? |
I didn't notice any. 
Gambling call - buy 7000pe, present SL 0. |
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riteshucha
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| Post: #68 Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2014 12:37 pm Post subject: |
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NF came down just to fill up yest's day... 
vinay,
how much "mkt shldnt fill up gaps if it has to continue to go up theory" now holds?
also as per JT's theory, since the 9.30 am low which took the pivot, was broken, technically all short stops to be placed at either days high... or if it is too wide, then on yest NF PIVOT i.e 7657...
what is ur intra take now? |
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vinay28
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| Post: #69 Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2014 12:44 pm Post subject: |
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| riteshucha wrote: | NF came down just to fill up yest's day...
vinay,
how much "mkt shldnt fill up gaps if it has to continue to go up theory" now holds?
also as per JT's theory, since the 9.30 am low which took the pivot, was broken, technically all short stops to be placed at either days high... or if it is too wide, then on yest NF PIVOT i.e 7657...
what is ur intra take now? |
my first intraday target is met. now waiting for 7550/7510NF but not sure if it will happen. but gap at 7474NS is crucial. |
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riteshucha
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| Post: #70 Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2014 4:31 pm Post subject: |
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vinay!!!
a hanging man today + mild negative div + filling of gaps?
is it signalling a reversal...??? |
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vinay28
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| Post: #71 Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2014 4:38 pm Post subject: |
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| riteshucha wrote: | vinay!!!
a hanging man today + mild negative div + filling of gaps?
is it signalling a reversal...??? |
ritesh, hanging man has higher success ratio (59%) for continuation of trend. having said this, -ve div and the fact that candle is in a way a bearish engulfing, we may see reversal. as I posted yesterday, I will be watching whether 7690/7720NF is exceeded or not. |
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taruj
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Joined: 20 Apr 2011
Posts: 260
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| Post: #72 Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2014 4:57 pm Post subject: |
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hi vinay
how does one say hanging man has a 59% success rate. is there any such site / reference material for candle stick formations? also some thing like a 'technical specification' of candles?
regards, |
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riteshucha
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Posts: 1292
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| Post: #73 Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2014 5:04 pm Post subject: |
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thanks vinay...
also one more thing abt gaps.. i was reading abt it.. gap up & gap down acts as supports & resistances respectively...and prices tend to reverse after filling the gap!!
and thats precisely what hapened today!!
but i remember u had said that for prices to continoue upwards, it shldnt fill the gap..
so not filling the gap and moving upwards or filling the gap and moving upwards (or downwards as the case may be) , in either case, which is a stronger sign for continuation of a trend..? |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #74 Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2014 5:26 pm Post subject: |
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| riteshucha wrote: | thanks vinay...
also one more thing abt gaps.. i was reading abt it.. gap up & gap down acts as supports & resistances respectively...and prices tend to reverse after filling the gap!!
and thats precisely what hapened today!!
but i remember u had said that for prices to continoue upwards, it shldnt fill the gap..
so not filling the gap and moving upwards or filling the gap and moving upwards (or downwards as the case may be) , in either case, which is a stronger sign for continuation of a trend..? |
yes, it's a fact that price can reverse after a gap is filled either because (a) there is no further gap to be filled or (b) trend is intact. But gap filling alone that doesn't indicate any trend, which has to be shown by other indicators. since -ve div persists and volume is low, I still feel the reverse may happen i.e. since lower gap is filled, it may go down further to fill up next gap(s), which exist at about 7474, 7230, 7123 and 7014. I am presently ignoring gaps at around 64xx and below.
I am also concerned about gradual rise in oil price and US$ as also today's development in N Iraq.
If however 7690/7720NF is taken out and -ve div vanishes then trend may continue. till then I am "hoping" for 6980/50. you can treat it as speculation if you wish. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #75 Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2014 5:29 pm Post subject: |
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| taruj wrote: | hi vinay
how does one say hanging man has a 59% success rate. is there any such site / reference material for candle stick formations? also some thing like a 'technical specification' of candles?
regards, |
ritesh, for doubt/knowledge on behaviour/outcome of any candle/pattern, you should read Bulkowski's research, which is available on the net. I have his e-book but can't mail it. However Internet has everything. He gives good explanation along with targets, success ratio, etc. Here's an example for hanging man
http://thepatternsite.com/HangingMan.html |
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