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Nifty View - March '16 Series |
vinst
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Post: #46  Posted: Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:05 pm Post subject: |
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Nifty future, 5 Kagi chart shows than NF bottom is done. x-axis is just a serial no. and y-axis is NF value.
Except an outside chance of NF falling to 6500, the red dashed upward channel shows that bottom seems to be past us.
chart attached. Time has no meaning in Kagi chart. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #47 Posted: Mon Mar 21, 2016 3:15 pm Post subject: |
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| I feel long holders should book by eod, at least partially |
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maheswar81
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| Post: #48 Posted: Mon Mar 21, 2016 3:49 pm Post subject: |
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| vinst wrote: | Nifty future, 5 Kagi chart shows than NF bottom is done. x-axis is just a serial no. and y-axis is NF value.
Except an outside chance of NF falling to 6500, the red dashed upward channel shows that bottom seems to be past us.
chart attached. Time has no meaning in Kagi chart. |
Kagi chart is nice one.
Could you please advice how to get Kagi chart ? any source please. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #49 Posted: Mon Mar 21, 2016 6:43 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | riteshucha wrote: | Vinay, volumes have been constantly lower than the previous days y, with price making newer highs almost every day from past 5/6 trading sessions,...isn't this a sign of exhaustion???
Is current rally top made today ???
Is this mere a bear market rally?? If yes then by how much (in % terms) does a bear market rally stretch too generally speaking ??
Your thoughts... |
ritesh, I am mentally prepared for seeing 7760 by 31/3 and 8250/8375 by 11/4, unless about 7480/7350/7250 are broken successively or a close below 7485 and 7361. |
that was posted on 15/03. 77xx done today. Next 1-2 days could be dicey |
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vinay28
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| Post: #50 Posted: Mon Mar 21, 2016 8:44 pm Post subject: |
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This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Tuesday (22/03/16) and beyond
Supports are at about 7674/64/40/23, 7580 and 7538 while resistances are at about 7742/53/77 and 7915. Unfilled gaps on higher and lower sides are at about 7741/7604 resp. 100/200 dma is at about 7608/7905 resp. Two +WWs can give about 7740/57 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 7384 (if below 7607) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A rising wedge BO can give about 7790/7845 unless negated by sustaining below 7705 and BD can give about 7585/30 if nifty breaks below 7660. An IHnS can give about 8010 if nifty sustains above 7580.
Nifty opened gap up and didn't look back, closing strongly just above 7700. Daily candle is a bullish Marubuzo but volume is not commensurate. Hidden bearish div is strong and we may see a sharp fall soon. However, it is possible only if strong selling commences. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #51 Posted: Mon Mar 21, 2016 8:54 pm Post subject: |
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Nifty formed a death cross on weekly in the week ending 11/03. Normally this means that it can now go down till at least year end if not more even if it continues to go up in short term. BUT, NO MATTER WHAT, the scary fact is, even a close at/above 7971 on 31/03 will give a hammer/hanging man/doji but, more importantly, a bearish Harami on (financial) yearly chart.
SCARY indeed. Incidentally, I also found a level of about 2800 by end 2020 in case of a global meltdown, which is not impossible considering the enormous debt of US. But let's go step by step.
This bearish view gets negated only if nifty crosses over about 8500 in April and thereafter goes higher by about 50 per month every month, quite unlikely as of now. As we know, it's all a matter of liquidity. |
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riteshucha
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Joined: 19 May 2012
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| Post: #52 Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2016 6:19 pm Post subject: |
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death cross??? can u show with chart vinay...
Ritesh
| vinay28 wrote: | Nifty formed a death cross on weekly in the week ending 11/03. Normally this means that it can now go down till at least year end if not more even if it continues to go up in short term. BUT, NO MATTER WHAT, the scary fact is, even a close at/above 7971 on 31/03 will give a hammer/hanging man/doji but, more importantly, a bearish Harami on (financial) yearly chart.
SCARY indeed. Incidentally, I also found a level of about 2800 by end 2020 in case of a global meltdown, which is not impossible considering the enormous debt of US. But let's go step by step.
This bearish view gets negated only if nifty crosses over about 8500 in April and thereafter goes higher by about 50 per month every month, quite unlikely as of now. As we know, it's all a matter of liquidity. |
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amitagg
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| Post: #53 Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2016 6:41 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | Nifty formed a death cross on weekly in the week ending 11/03. Normally this means that it can now go down till at least year end if not more even if it continues to go up in short term. BUT, NO MATTER WHAT, the scary fact is, even a close at/above 7971 on 31/03 will give a hammer/hanging man/doji but, more importantly, a bearish Harami on (financial) yearly chart.
SCARY indeed. Incidentally, I also found a level of about 2800 by end 2020 in case of a global meltdown, which is not impossible considering the enormous debt of US. But let's go step by step.
This bearish view gets negated only if nifty crosses over about 8500 in April and thereafter goes higher by about 50 per month every month, quite unlikely as of now. As we know, it's all a matter of liquidity. |
There is a reversal of ur view so to say....I would now agree though ( unlike earlier) ... I had mentioned somewhere earlier hat we shall be SIDEWAAYS on monthly and TIME to kill / weed out all ... Will be the essence..... I shall go back and read ur iterations in previous post to understand the current possibilities |
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amitagg
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vinay28
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| Post: #55 Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2016 8:13 pm Post subject: |
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nifty crossing 7900 will not give a golden cross but crossing of 50 dma over 100 will, which looks doubtful as of now.
notwithstanding the longer term bearish outlook given earlier, 8250/8375 is still possible in April. But I am presently worried about expiry scenario due to a few aspects (a) increasing hidden bearish div, which can give 200-500 fall though only if consistent selling starts, (b) -ve div formed today on lower TFs, (c) sluggishness in RIL scrip price, (d) confusing OI play by market makers, (e) INR weakening for 2 days in spite of FII inflows, (f) rising oil prices and dollar index and (g) selling by DIIs for NAV purposes. Expiry may tell us what to expect in April. |
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vinay28
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Posts: 11748
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| Post: #56 Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2016 8:42 pm Post subject: |
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This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Wednesday (23/03/16) and beyond
Supports are at about 7693/74/66/60/08 and 7538 while resistances are at about 7755/83, 7915 and 7955. Unfilled gaps on higher and lower sides are at about 7741/7604 resp. 100/200 dma is at about 7604/7904 resp. Three +WWs can give about 7745/55 and 7935 (if above 7650) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 7643 (if below 7716) and 7384 (if below 7608) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A rising wedge BO can give about 7790/7845 unless negated by sustaining below 7705 and BD can give about 7585/30 if nifty breaks below 7655. An IHnS can give about 8010 if nifty sustains above 7580.
Nifty opened down with a small gap and fell further but recovered sharply to make a higher high and closed above 7700. Daily candle is like a hanging man but volume was strong +ve. However, there was a -ve div on lower TFs and hence we may see some fall, though limited. Strong hidden bearish div will give sharp fall only if strong selling commences. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. |
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vinst
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Joined: 09 Jan 2007
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| Post: #57 Posted: Wed Mar 23, 2016 8:25 am Post subject: |
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Vinay28,
on which TF is the hidden bearish div observed ?
| vinay28 wrote: | This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Wednesday (23/03/16) and beyond
Supports are at about 7693/74/66/60/08 and 7538 while resistances are at about 7755/83, 7915 and 7955. Unfilled gaps on higher and lower sides are at about 7741/7604 resp. 100/200 dma is at about 7604/7904 resp. Three +WWs can give about 7745/55 and 7935 (if above 7650) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 7643 (if below 7716) and 7384 (if below 7608) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A rising wedge BO can give about 7790/7845 unless negated by sustaining below 7705 and BD can give about 7585/30 if nifty breaks below 7655. An IHnS can give about 8010 if nifty sustains above 7580.
Nifty opened down with a small gap and fell further but recovered sharply to make a higher high and closed above 7700. Daily candle is like a hanging man but volume was strong +ve. However, there was a -ve div on lower TFs and hence we may see some fall, though limited. Strong hidden bearish div will give sharp fall only if strong selling commences. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. |
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riteshucha
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Posts: 1292
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| Post: #58 Posted: Wed Mar 23, 2016 10:35 am Post subject: |
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vinist sir...daily as i see... high as on 01.01.2016 to yest high.. price made lower high and rsi making higher high...
vinay can u explain the death cross part on weekly ending 11.03.2016 ?
ritesh
| vinst wrote: | Vinay28,
on which TF is the hidden bearish div observed ?
| vinay28 wrote: | This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Wednesday (23/03/16) and beyond
Supports are at about 7693/74/66/60/08 and 7538 while resistances are at about 7755/83, 7915 and 7955. Unfilled gaps on higher and lower sides are at about 7741/7604 resp. 100/200 dma is at about 7604/7904 resp. Three +WWs can give about 7745/55 and 7935 (if above 7650) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 7643 (if below 7716) and 7384 (if below 7608) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A rising wedge BO can give about 7790/7845 unless negated by sustaining below 7705 and BD can give about 7585/30 if nifty breaks below 7655. An IHnS can give about 8010 if nifty sustains above 7580.
Nifty opened down with a small gap and fell further but recovered sharply to make a higher high and closed above 7700. Daily candle is like a hanging man but volume was strong +ve. However, there was a -ve div on lower TFs and hence we may see some fall, though limited. Strong hidden bearish div will give sharp fall only if strong selling commences. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #59 Posted: Wed Mar 23, 2016 8:57 pm Post subject: |
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| riteshucha wrote: | .......vinay can u explain the death cross part on weekly ending 11.03.2016 ?
ritesh |
Ritesh just check 50/100 dma crossover on nifty weekly chart |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #60 Posted: Wed Mar 23, 2016 9:05 pm Post subject: |
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| vinst wrote: | Vinay28,
on which TF is the hidden bearish div observed ?
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vinst it's on daily though bullish div remained for a long time on higher TFs as well. Another bearish one developed today between today's and yesterday's candle. I feel we may see a 100-150 fall on Monday unless 7729 is taken out.
BTW, when I post bullish/bearish div, I mean the hidden one and not +ve/-ve div. In the past bearish div has given results when rsi is above about 56 but this time it is still at about 66 and nifty is going up. That's why I keep posting that liquidity has to come in or go out to give results. |
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