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Nifty View - March '16 Series
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Author Nifty View - March '16 Series
vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #1   PostPosted: Thu Feb 25, 2016 7:32 pm    Post subject: Nifty View - March '16 Series Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Friday (26/02/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 6940/30/13/08, 6864 and 6858 while resistances are at about 6992, 7001/19/42/65 and 7136. Unfilled gaps on higher and lower sides are at about 7110 and 6858 resp. Three +WWs can give about 7012 (if above 6968) and 7033/47 (if above 6950) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).

Nifty fell again and closed below 7000 and at a new 52 week closing low. Volume is big -ve and we may see some more fall. However, bullish div is present on all TFs and we may see a sharp rise soon if buying resumes. Nifty must close above 7277 to be bullish in short term. There are no supports on closing basis on lower side. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #2   PostPosted: Fri Feb 26, 2016 9:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Monday (29/02/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7020, 6989/61/52, 6864 and 6858 while resistances are at about 7042/63/79/93, 7121/36/52 and 7216. Unfilled gaps on higher and lower sides are at about 7110 and 6970 resp. A +WW can give about 7168 (if above 7066) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 6923 (if below 7070) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).

Nifty fell after a gap up open but recovered to close above 7000. Daily candle is a hammer and volume is big +ve and we may see some more rise. Bullish div present on all TFs can give a sharp rise soon if buying resumes. Nifty must close above 7277 to be bullish in short term while a close below 6970 cause more fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Trade carefully being a budget day.
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spatechnicals
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Post: #3   PostPosted: Sat Feb 27, 2016 12:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

surf
donaldbradley.wordpress.com
m sure, u will fully satisfied with commodities calls
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vinay28
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Post: #4   PostPosted: Mon Feb 29, 2016 8:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

spatechnicals wrote:
surf
donaldbradley.wordpress.com
m sure, u will fully satisfied with commodities calls


you have posted in the wrong thread
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vinay28
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Post: #5   PostPosted: Mon Feb 29, 2016 8:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Tuesday (01/03/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 6961/07, 6841/18 and 6787 while resistances are at about 7077/94, 7116/44, 7204/41 and 7263. Unfilled gaps on higher and lower sides are at about 7110 and 6494 resp. A +WW can give about 7177 (if above 7059) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 6905 (if below 7077) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).

Nifty moved in a huge range after a gap up open. It filled the pre-election gap of May '14 thereby making a lower low and then made a higher high before closing -ve below 7000. Daily candle is like a hammer with +ve div and we may see some more rise before another downturn. Bullish div present on all TFs can give a sharp rise soon only if buying resumes. Nifty must close above 7277 to be bullish in short term while a close below 6970 cause more fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Monthly range can be very wide due to a long expiry.
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vinay28
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Post: #6   PostPosted: Tue Mar 01, 2016 7:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Wednesday (02/03/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7204, 7193/70/41/31/11, 7090/78 and 7040 while resistances are at about 7243/52/75/97, 7368 and 7386. Unfilled gaps on higher and lower sides are at about 7299 and 6987 resp. Three +WWs can give about 7264/74 and 7306 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 7096/6885 (if below 7130) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).

Nifty opened up with a big gap and didn't look back, rising sharply further to close well above 7200. Daily candle is big, bullish Marubuzo but volume is not commensurate and hence further rise may be limited. Nifty must close above 7235/77 to be bullish in short term while a close below 7029 may cause more fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Monthly range can be very wide due to a long expiry.
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vinay28
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Post: #7   PostPosted: Wed Mar 02, 2016 7:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Thursday (03/03/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7349/41/22, 7277/34/14, 7198/82 and 7135 while resistances are at about 7375/86, 7400/28/37/55 and 7481. Unfilled gaps on higher and lower sides are at about 7388 and 722 resp. A +WW can give about 76xx (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 7250 (if below 7385) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).

Nifty opened up with a big gap and again went up to close well above 7350. Daily candle is a likely evening star, to be confirmed by a big red candle, preferably after a gap down open. However, volume was strong +ve. But there is now a mild bearish div and we may see some reaction soon. Nifty must close above 7490 to continue the rally while a close below 7234 may cause more fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Monthly range can be very wide due to a long expiry.
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amitagg
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Post: #8   PostPosted: Wed Mar 02, 2016 9:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

With the ferocious move .... Is 9000 ( not 8000) getting into your radar yet again?
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Niftyman
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Post: #9   PostPosted: Thu Mar 03, 2016 2:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

amitagg wrote:
With the ferocious move .... Is 9000 ( not 8000) getting into your radar yet again?

Not yet able to cross 7500, and you start talks of 9000.
Rather wait for some more time. Laughing
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vinay28
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Post: #10   PostPosted: Thu Mar 03, 2016 7:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

amitagg wrote:
With the ferocious move .... Is 9000 ( not 8000) getting into your radar yet again?


amit, there are so many possibilities/thoeries such as (a) new high or at least 86xx in 45 days starting march, (b) 20% jump by June and 30% by Dec, (c) 7750 latest by end april and if sustains 8250 by june or down to 7100, etc. etc. let's go step by step.

first hurdle is 7438/68. from there I feel either (a) back to 65xx/63xx in april/may and then up long term or (b) down for long term

however, what changed after budget is the tax on dividend of >10 lacs. that's why we see this massive cash buying as most promoters have called for urgent board meetings to declare special dividend in march to save/evade tax. and that's why the discount in NF. so till end march this huge buying may continue. to what level of nifty? only time will tell
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vinay28
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Post: #11   PostPosted: Thu Mar 03, 2016 8:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
amitagg wrote:
With the ferocious move .... Is 9000 ( not 8000) getting into your radar yet again?


amit, there are so many possibilities/thoeries such as (a) new high or at least 86xx in 45 days starting march, (b) 20% jump by June and 30% by Dec, (c) 7750 latest by end april and if sustains 8250 by june or down to 7100, etc. etc. let's go step by step.

first hurdle is 7438/68. from there I feel either (a) back to 65xx/63xx in april/may and then up long term or (b) down for long term

however, what changed after budget is the tax on dividend of >10 lacs. that's why we see this massive cash buying as most promoters have called for urgent board meetings to declare special dividend in march to save/evade tax. and that's why the discount in NF. so till end march this huge buying may continue. to what level of nifty? only time will tell


incidentally the sentiment indicator gave a buy for the 9th time in 50 years, the last two times being in oct 08 and dec 11.
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manojkr78
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Post: #12   PostPosted: Thu Mar 03, 2016 11:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vinay,

Monthly RSI is below 30....and completed 12 months of down trend.Nifty corrected 25% from all time high.
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amitagg
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
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Post: #13   PostPosted: Thu Mar 03, 2016 6:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
amitagg wrote:
With the ferocious move .... Is 9000 ( not 8000) getting into your radar yet again?


amit, there are so many possibilities/thoeries such as (a) new high or at least 86xx in 45 days starting march, (b) 20% jump by June and 30% by Dec, (c) 7750 latest by end april and if sustains 8250 by june or down to 7100, etc. etc. let's go step by step.

first hurdle is 7438/68. from there I feel either (a) back to 65xx/63xx in april/may and then up long term or (b) down for long term

however, what changed after budget is the tax on dividend of >10 lacs. that's why we see this massive cash buying as most promoters have called for urgent board meetings to declare special dividend in march to save/evade tax. and that's why the discount in NF. so till end march this huge buying may continue. to what level of nifty? only time will tell


incidentally the sentiment indicator gave a buy for the 9th time in 50 years, the last two times being in oct 08 and dec 11.


Thanks for the high level insightful inputs. Appreciate. there would be a lot of analysis going behind the refined result probabilities
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vinay28
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Post: #14   PostPosted: Thu Mar 03, 2016 9:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Friday (04/03/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7452/31/23/08, 7374/48 and 7219 while resistances are at about 7492, 7507/36 and 7591. Unfilled gaps on higher and lower sides are at about 7741 and 7368 resp. A +WW can give about 76xx (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 7300 (if below 7455) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).

Nifty opened up again with a big gap and went up to close well above 7450. Daily candle is again a likely evening star, to be confirmed by a big red candle, preferably after a gap down open. However, volume was strong +ve. But there is also a mild bearish div and we may see some reaction soon. On daily basis, nifty must close above 7490/7564 and on weekly basis above 7423/7564 to continue the rally while a close below 7361 may cause more fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Monthly range can be very wide due to a long expiry.
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vinay28
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Post: #15   PostPosted: Fri Mar 04, 2016 8:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Updated NF levels as of 4/3.
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