iCharts Discussions

[apka]

that would be biased view for trading

no its not that for me. i am thinking if i was in shoes of dubbu, i would think inflation has gone below, and i have given one rate cut citing that.

Inflation again went up by 0.20% in feb, if i again give a rate cut, inflation can rise again and it has to given that diesel prices are going to rise monthly? We have not even seen the effect on inflation for atleast 3-4 months after giving the rate cut. Then whats the use of the whole excercise to hold the rate cuts for so long if there is no observation done.

[vinay28]

andre, you didn't see my reply to taxmann earlier. you should see all previous posts befor opining.

[Andre]

Apka....
Inflation, so far as WPI is concern...is reducing but went up last month mainly because of administered price...The whole point of RBI while inc/dec rates is related to inflation expectation....so while inflation is going high right now it will be good thing as this is will reduce the fiscal deficit/CAD by reducing fuel subsidy...
SO far as CPI is concern it is high because of food inflation which is not correlated in any manner with rates....
So the whole point before RBI as of now what is the pricing power in manufacturing sector and what is the growth in the current scenarion of Fiscal and Current account deficit....Pricing power has gone in orbit for manufacturing sector and growth has plummetted recently....so the only thing RBI can do right now is reduce rates not only this month but even on the next policy meet...unless growth comes back unexpectedly... mind it...food subsidy inflated fiscal def is way better than energy inflated fiscal def/CAD because of currency related issues.
SO my bet is 50 bps reduction in coming two policy meet...

Regards,
Andre

[SP50]

Price of every piece of thing under the sun is going up steadily at good rate. Reduce rates for more spiral effect and more note printing.
Govt is spending nothing!! how do u expect the private sector to drive growth alone?

[Andre]

Taxmann....
The first statement is quite right and i do agree...but thing is its not because of printing money or any thing like that...its about democratization of capitalism...poverty is less than any time in the past...not only in India but also in world...
Government has stopped spending to meet their fis def target and probably take some leeway to reduce in the name of public spending when the election will be due next year....
Its about sentiment...ultimately ball is in govt court to fats track the infra projects and bring back positive sentiment in the economy.....but RBI can add to this albeit in very limited way...

Regards,
Andre

[SP50]

[pkholla]

[SP50]

[SP50]

Whatever I hear now from people in brokerages is that there is a outside chance of a rate cut. When its a outside chance then this become a very much possibility, I am cautious at this juncture.
As pointed out by Vinay along with Banks PE I will be looking to buy some strong CE as well.

[pkholla]

I hear Chiddu is putting heavy pressure on Subbu for rate cut
1) Government disinvestment program not yet finished
2) Chiddu wants good performance so he can become leading candidate for PM post as MMS is getting too old for full additional term
3) Chiddu wants SEBI command to public quoted companies (to increase public holdings to specified level) to be implemented at a good price so all those promoters will be grateful to him
Cheers, Prakash Holla

[SP50]

[vinay28]

I feel rbi policy is immaterial. I feel both 5780 (worst case 5729) on downside and 6020 on upside are possible in march. I am taking positions accordingly, changing them slightly everyday to book partial profits and then add on reverse.

[Andre]

Can see the relevance of color of your belt now...Pkholla


[quote="pkholla"]

[SP50]

[quote="Andre"]Can see the relevance of color of your belt now...Pkholla

[Andre]

Let us concentrate on our work....Taxmann....


[quote="taxmann50"]