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Nifty View - March Series 2014 |
vinay28
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Post: #16  Posted: Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:04 pm Post subject: |
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| attaching a 60tf chart. rsi breaking below the utl and/or NS breaking 6222 is bad. Of course, breaking and remaining below 6269 itself can cause about 70 point fall. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #17 Posted: Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:35 pm Post subject: |
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| escalating tension between Russia and Ukraine can be very bad news. Specifically, watch natural gas on Monday and may be nifty |
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saumya12
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| Post: #18 Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:08 am Post subject: |
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| saumya12 wrote: | As posted yesterday
Nifty just touched Senkou sen upper level (Kumo upper level) and tried but not able to cross it.
The Chikou sen (the green line) is also stopped by the Kumo upper level. So, unless Nifty crosses Kumo and other two resistance levels of 6260 and 6270 on closing basis, it can not move to new higher levels.
Further, if Nifty reverts from the present level or not able to cross above mentioned resistance levels then can falls below 6200 (Kumo lower level) and further lower levels.
Resistance levels 6240/45 - 6260 - 6270
Support levels 6220 - 6200/6195 - 6171 - 6150/45 |
As mentioned in previous post, Nifty though moved out of Kumo and made a high of 6282.7 but could not sustain at higher levels and LTP as on 28.2.14 was 6269.2 just below the resistance line.
Now, though Chikou also has crossed out of the Kumo but is still below the resistance level of 6270 and price line.
The second sign of bullishness has also appeared, Tenkan sen has crossed the Kijun sen from below. So let us see what happens next.
But, unless Nifty crosses the resistance levels of 6270 - 6294 on closing basis, it can not move to new higher levels.
Further, if Nifty reverts from the present level or not able to cross above mentioned resistance levels, then can falls upto 6200 (Kumo lower level) or further lower levels in near future.
Resistance levels 6270/5 - 6294 - 6320 - 6350
Support levels 6260 - 6245- 6220 - 6200/6195 - 6171 |
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vinay28
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| Post: #19 Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2014 12:39 pm Post subject: |
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| saumya, how does it look on weekly chart? |
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saumya12
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| Post: #20 Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2014 1:53 pm Post subject: |
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For me
Weekly charts are difficult to read. 
But let me try 
Till nifty is above 6145, it is overall bullish in weekly chart.
Res levels 6271 - 6325
Supp levels 6225 - 6145 - 6050 |
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vinay28
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| Post: #21 Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2014 3:42 pm Post subject: |
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| saumya12 wrote: | For me
Weekly charts are difficult to read.
But let me try
Till nifty is above 6145, it is overall bullish in weekly chart.
Res levels 6271 - 6325
Supp levels 6225 - 6145 - 6050 |
it is better to look at 60tf, daily and weekly or even monthly for medium/long term outlook |
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saumya12
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| Post: #22 Posted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 12:24 pm Post subject: |
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If NF falls below 6255 and sustains this level
Then we can see 6235-30 levels
Take care
Use proper SL/TSL |
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rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #23 Posted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 12:52 pm Post subject: |
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| saumya12 wrote: | If NF falls below 6255 and sustains this level
Then we can see 6235-30 levels
Take care
Use proper SL/TSL |
Yes NF may possibly visit 6220 levels. |
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sanjayojha
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Joined: 13 Nov 2013
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| Post: #24 Posted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 2:03 pm Post subject: |
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| saumya12 wrote: | If NF falls below 6255 and sustains this level
Then we can see 6235-30 levels
Take care
Use proper SL/TSL |
NF 6330. 
Great analysis Saumya
Sanjay |
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vinay28
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| Post: #25 Posted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 7:48 pm Post subject: |
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I feel range for march is 5980-6500 while till June it could be 5000-7200.
Don't ask why. |
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apka
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| Post: #26 Posted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:00 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | I feel range for march is 5980-6500 while till June it could be 5000-7200.
Don't ask why. |
why can't I ask why  |
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vinay28
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| Post: #27 Posted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:11 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | I feel range for march is 5980-6500 while till June it could be 5000-7200.
Don't ask why. |
why can't I ask why |
'cos, you can not ask questions if you visit only once a week and you will get a stupid answer. Anyway, the latter is a wild guess, though based on my reading of vix and keeping in mind elections in May. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #28 Posted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:17 pm Post subject: |
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Nifty for Tuesday (04/03/14)
Supports are at about 6215, 6192/80/70/60, 6050 and 5995 while resistances are at about 6239 and 6376. A gap on the lower side is at about 6186 while a previous low was at about 6176. 50/100 dma are at about 6185/6173. 20 wma is at about 6182 while 5 mma is at about 6215. Three +WWs can give about 6245 (once above 6228), 6256 (once above 6233) and 6290 (once above 6207, which is yet to be reached) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 6195 (once below 6240) and 6065 (once below 6229) (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Three rising wedges can give about 6180/6090/6000 if nifty remains below 6240. A bearish flag can give lower level unless killed above 6255.
Nifty fell sharply to close below 6250 as suggested in Monday's post. If it closes below about 6170, it could fall much more. The hope for bulls is the mild +ve div on lower tf and the fact that many SMAs converge around 6170-85. Oil price rise and/or INR fall can affect market adversely and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. Bad global cues can cause more fall. VIX is on the rise and can cause wild swings. It looks likely that we may see a new high in March unless nifty falls much more. |
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vinay28
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Posts: 11748
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| Post: #29 Posted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:24 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | I feel range for march is 5980-6500 while till June it could be 5000-7200.
Don't ask why. |
why can't I ask why |
'cos, you can not ask questions if you visit only once a week and you will get a stupid answer. Anyway, the latter is a wild guess, though based on my reading of vix and keeping in mind elections in May. |
apka, it doesn't mean that both end levels have to be reached. Incidentally, if you recall, last year I had posted a similar view with lower level as about 5170 but never expected it. And then 5100 came like a bolt out of the blue. Last year, I had also posted about very high rates of far away options 6-9 months away. Same thing now but just 4 months away due to elections. |
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saumya12
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| Post: #30 Posted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 9:13 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | I feel range for march is 5980-6500 while till June it could be 5000-7200.
Don't ask why. |
Okay, wont ask why
I think, I know the answer.
But curious to know,
It is 5000 - 7200 or it will be 7200 - 5000
Just in simple terms
First 7200 then 5000
OR
First 5000 then 7200 |
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