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Nifty View - March Series 2014 |
apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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Post: #271  Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2014 2:34 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | safe trade is to buy 6500ce and sell 6600ce. One won't loose much at least |
once can also sell 6400pe in addition to above |
what was net gain today at the high? |
on chart 6600pe near 70 and 6400pe 5 |
my dear I had advised selling 6600ce and 6400pe and buying 6500ce |
rookie mistake  |
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apka
Black Belt
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| Post: #272 Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2014 2:55 pm Post subject: |
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| 6600pe right now 35 or so with a VIX of 11.4 only |
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riteshucha
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Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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| Post: #273 Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2014 2:58 pm Post subject: |
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meaning?
| apka wrote: | | 6600pe right now 35 or so with a VIX of 11.4 only |
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apka
Black Belt
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| Post: #274 Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2014 3:13 pm Post subject: |
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| riteshucha wrote: | meaning?
| apka wrote: | | 6600pe right now 35 or so with a VIX of 11.4 only |
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so far lowest VIX.. free writing... has added more than 28 lakh OI today out of the total 52 lakh OI.
keeping an eye to see when VIX increases to buy it.
edit: bought it 34.80 |
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riteshucha
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| Post: #275 Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2014 3:44 pm Post subject: |
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dont u think, u bought it a bit too soon? since OI is so high with no sign of cutting till last 15 minutes...
we might see a bump up again tomm, may be, before any covering shld be seen or till NS crosses 6610 may be...
| apka wrote: | | riteshucha wrote: | meaning?
| apka wrote: | | 6600pe right now 35 or so with a VIX of 11.4 only |
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so far lowest VIX.. free writing... has added more than 28 lakh OI today out of the total 52 lakh OI.
keeping an eye to see when VIX increases to buy it.
edit: bought it 34.80 |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #276 Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2014 8:15 pm Post subject: |
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| riteshucha wrote: | dont u think, u bought it a bit too soon? since OI is so high with no sign of cutting till last 15 minutes...
we might see a bump up again tomm, may be, before any covering shld be seen or till NS crosses 6610 may be... |
Possibly, but I took a chance on account of:
1) because bank nifty spot and fut crossed high after 3pm but nifty was seeing pressure of selling in both spot and fut.
2) the vix of 6600pe was lowest amongst others, scope of it's VIX going further down was miniscule. Even if nifty rises tomorrow by 20 points from todays high and VIX of 6600pe rises, I will get my cost back.
3) And as Bank Nifty spot has resistance near 12500-50 it can see some selling, affecting nifty.
4) the fiscal year end selling, profit booking thing i mentioned earlier.
5) rollover has seen long additions only so far in last 2-3 days. Equal chance of seeing short additions or long exits from march series (more than 200 lakhs OI still open) which can induce a fall.
Even a fall of 20 points will induce fast VIX rise in 6600pe giving scope of good profit.
All in all it seemed like a better gamble. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #277 Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:19 pm Post subject: |
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Sgx Nifty Future
6572.50 Down 36.00 Down 0.55% |
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satishkadam
Yellow Belt
Joined: 01 Apr 2010
Posts: 805
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| Post: #278 Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2014 9:39 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | Sgx Nifty Future
6572.50 Down 36.00 Down 0.55% |
RIL down..................3%..................any news
Thks
Satish  |
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biznet
White Belt
Joined: 04 Feb 2013
Posts: 46
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| Post: #279 Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2014 9:47 am Post subject: |
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election commission asked government to defer gas price hike
biznet |
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riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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| Post: #280 Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2014 9:56 am Post subject: |
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thnks apka for the detailed explanation...
curious to know what could be the tgt in such case.. what level of iv would u want to book ur profits if that is one way of looking at it... or u r playing for some 20 / 30 points
pls dont mind me asking too many questions...
| apka wrote: | | riteshucha wrote: | dont u think, u bought it a bit too soon? since OI is so high with no sign of cutting till last 15 minutes...
we might see a bump up again tomm, may be, before any covering shld be seen or till NS crosses 6610 may be... |
Possibly, but I took a chance on account of:
1) because bank nifty spot and fut crossed high after 3pm but nifty was seeing pressure of selling in both spot and fut.
2) the vix of 6600pe was lowest amongst others, scope of it's VIX going further down was miniscule. Even if nifty rises tomorrow by 20 points from todays high and VIX of 6600pe rises, I will get my cost back.
3) And as Bank Nifty spot has resistance near 12500-50 it can see some selling, affecting nifty.
4) the fiscal year end selling, profit booking thing i mentioned earlier.
5) rollover has seen long additions only so far in last 2-3 days. Equal chance of seeing short additions or long exits from march series (more than 200 lakhs OI still open) which can induce a fall.
Even a fall of 20 points will induce fast VIX rise in 6600pe giving scope of good profit.
All in all it seemed like a better gamble. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #281 Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2014 10:19 am Post subject: |
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| riteshucha wrote: | thnks apka for the detailed explanation...
curious to know what could be the tgt in such case.. what level of iv would u want to book ur profits if that is one way of looking at it... or u r playing for some 20 / 30 points
pls dont mind me asking too many questions... |
no i dont mind Ritesh. I think 60-70 is possible.
It's VIX is now floating between 13-14 or so.
good indication for me is that despite BN rise of 100+ new high nifty didnt make a new high in spot or fut. (and BN stopped in range in expect to show resistence)
I wouldnt be booking based on its VIX but seeing writing / covering of call & puts and whether it's VIX drops from here. |
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riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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| Post: #282 Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2014 10:26 am Post subject: |
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 thanks... a new thing to learn....
| apka wrote: | | riteshucha wrote: | thnks apka for the detailed explanation...
curious to know what could be the tgt in such case.. what level of iv would u want to book ur profits if that is one way of looking at it... or u r playing for some 20 / 30 points
pls dont mind me asking too many questions... |
no i dont mind Ritesh. I think 60-70 is possible.
It's VIX is now floating between 13-14 or so.
good indication for me is that despite BN rise of 100+ new high nifty didnt make a new high in spot or fut. (and BN stopped in range in expect to show resistence)
I wouldnt be booking based on its VIX but seeing writing / covering of call & puts and whether it's VIX drops from here. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #283 Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2014 10:41 am Post subject: |
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| riteshucha wrote: | | thanks... a new thing to learn.... |
and ofcourse all these observations & probabilities go to trash if nifty decides to go up again..  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #284 Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2014 10:45 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | riteshucha wrote: | | thanks... a new thing to learn.... |
and ofcourse all these observations & probabilities go to trash if nifty decides to go up again.. |
apka sir, how do you analyse so many things so fast?  |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #285 Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2014 11:16 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | riteshucha wrote: | | thanks... a new thing to learn.... |
and ofcourse all these observations & probabilities go to trash if nifty decides to go up again.. |
apka sir, how do you analyse so many things so fast? |
all thanks to my kidney |
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