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Nifty View - March Series 2014 |
apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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Post: #91  Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2014 9:59 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | IMHO, it makes sense to get out of longs around 6480/88NF to begin with as today's candle could be bearish piercing or inverted hammer (or evening star or hanging man). Provided it goes there of course. |
hmm, I'm expecting Bank Nifty spot 10680 or so. |
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satishkadam
Yellow Belt
Joined: 01 Apr 2010
Posts: 805
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| Post: #92 Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:09 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | if 6480NS is taken out then all hell will break loose. |
exactly...trend following is critical which i time to time forget...despite bullish view i got into calls that too selling today...shall exit with some losses...after some sideways to down consolidation tomorrow....or end of tomorrow.....
i also think that when such slow and slow rises comes......then after a nearing top....there is a gap up open to much higher levels still....any shorters should be careful and exit....lets be simple in our trading approach
you still expect 200 point fall or now in bullish camp or sidelines.....not that affects your longer trading style / peformance....but checking ur overall understanding of what markets are going to do....from your experience....which we look up to |
not clear whether it was a query or a statement. in any case, as of now, it looks strong but not clear whether it will pause today. with the kind of rise that has happened with heavy buying all around, bears are surely scared. having said this I am still expecting 6150/95 in march. I think we should probably get some picture by eod. Important thing to remember is to get out when a day closes -ve. |
Looks like.... maximum... by monday...............we will start falling..................as everyone.... who were short will cut their position and turn in Buy.....................and they will be trapped...............
Thanks |
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riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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| Post: #93 Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:16 am Post subject: |
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6500 PE now adding OI... looks like it can easily go past 6500...
this doesnt look like a sell mkt, but now dont even have the confidence to buy  ... |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #94 Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:17 am Post subject: |
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I dont think this is a game type rise and fall.
IT is down heavily and remaining sectors are hugely up since 2-3 days. This is an actual investment cycle making Nifty rise. How often does it happen, that too at a breakout and new high.
I want to see my cup n handle 6900 trgt before election. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #95 Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:38 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | IMHO, it makes sense to get out of longs around 6480/88NF to begin with as today's candle could be bearish piercing or inverted hammer (or evening star or hanging man). Provided it goes there of course. |
hmm, I'm expecting Bank Nifty spot 10680 or so. |
It's hit the weekly resistance of 11730 spot. If it crosses that also then ching ching.
Nifty volumes now 6.5 million in 1.5 hours. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #96 Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2014 11:06 am Post subject: |
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| banknifty target is 12000. If NS doesn't fall below 6300 on Monday (latest early next week), we may see 6600+ by as early as 21-24/3. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #97 Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2014 11:22 am Post subject: |
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| surprisingly 6200pe is showing accumulation |
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riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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| Post: #98 Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2014 11:35 am Post subject: |
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| also 6500 PE premnium has not dropped much from recent lows.. with OI at 92% |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #99 Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2014 11:36 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | surprisingly 6200pe is showing accumulation |
because masters wanted premiums to go down .....and then buy...and not at start of "unexpected " rally from 6170 [ .....not 5933]...this should be only for hedge....not to expect any downmove below 6280.....actually 6340....even taking out 6380 is tricky / difficult now.... |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #100 Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2014 11:41 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | surprisingly 6200pe is showing accumulation |
mad buying in calls and puts.
look at the value of 12000ce in one day from yesterdays close of 23.
look at the value of 10500pe its flat! after 650 points BN rise.
VIX +2.13 @ 16.64 |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #101 Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2014 11:53 am Post subject: |
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| something fishy going on. looks like a trap for either side. that's why I said about condition of 6300 next week. may be euphoria is setting in |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #102 Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2014 12:11 pm Post subject: |
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| I feel one may carry shorts if 6200pe closes >20 today. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #103 Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2014 12:28 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | something fishy going on. looks like a trap for either side. that's why I said about condition of 6300 next week. may be euphoria is setting in |
also can look at it as "big traders" smelling blood and rocketing call premiums intra day.....multi month chance day.... a long yearly breakout should be like this only...  ....LT Reliance etc ....never to short this ...because intra rallies can be dangerous....if unwilling to long now, can reduce quantity.....for short term traders..... |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #104 Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2014 12:35 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | something fishy going on. looks like a trap for either side. that's why I said about condition of 6300 next week. may be euphoria is setting in |
also can look at it as "big traders" smelling blood and rocketing call premiums intra day.....multi month chance day.... a long yearly breakout should be like this only... ....LT Reliance etc ....never to short this ...because intra rallies can be dangerous....if unwilling to long now, can reduce quantity.....for short term traders..... |
"euphoria" is the danger word amit |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #105 Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2014 12:56 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | surprisingly 6200pe is showing accumulation |
mad buying in calls and puts.
look at the value of 12000ce in one day from yesterdays close of 23.
look at the value of 10500pe its flat! after 650 points BN rise.
VIX +2.13 @ 16.64 |
even after ur post 6400 call up from 145 to 167....shorters at 6500 call when NS was at 6200-6300 also would be stuck...and rally with "ease" to 6550/6000+...... |
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