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Nifty View - May '16 Series
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Author Nifty View - May '16 Series
vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #31   PostPosted: Fri May 13, 2016 7:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Updated NF levels as of 13/05.
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #32   PostPosted: Fri May 13, 2016 7:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Monday (16/05/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7782/69/48/27/05 and 7671/40 while resistances are at about 7823/47/72/94 and 7927/49. Unfilled gaps on the higher/lower side are about 7901/7733 resp. 200 dma is at about 7815. A +WW can give about 7859 (if above 7809) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 7765/05 and 7655 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).

Nifty opened down with a gap and fell further to close above 7800 but just below 200 dma. Daily volume is strong -ve. Weekly candle is like an inverted hammer but with strong +ve volume. Also, there is a mild bullish div. So, further fall, if any, may last only a few days if buying resumes. Bearish div present over longer term gets negated above 7992 to begin with. nifty must close above 7901 to begin with while a close below 7758 can cause more pain. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Post: #33   PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2016 6:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Updated NF levels as of 16/05.
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #34   PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2016 6:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Tuesday (17/05/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7833/25/03, 7794/83/62/31 and 7816 while resistances are at about 7886/94, 7906/18/31/40/96 and 8028/56. Unfilled gaps on the higher/lower side are about 7901/7733 resp. 200 dma is at about 7813. A +WW can give about 8032 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 7750 (if below 7928 and 7650 (if below 7995) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give about 8050 if nifty breaks out above 7928.

Nifty opened up with a gap but fell to make a lower low before reversing sharply to close +ve above 7850 and also above 200 dma again. Daily candle is a hammer with good +ve volume with +ve div. Bearish div present over longer term can succeed only if sustained selling resumes but gets negated above 7992 to begin with. nifty must close above 7901/80 to start a rally while a close below 7814 can start a fall again. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Post: #35   PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 7:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Updated NF levels as of 17/05.
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #36   PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 7:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Wednesday (18/05/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7870/54/40/20/06, 7783/72 and 7744 while resistances are at about 7907/21/36/48/67/96 and 8025/59. Unfilled gaps on the higher/lower side are about 8041/7860 resp. 200 dma is at about 7809. Three +WWs can give about 7932 (if above 7886) and 8020/50 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 7873 (if below 7928), 7739 (if below 7930) and 7638 (if below 7996) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give about 8050 if nifty breaks out above 7930.

Nifty opened up with a gap, rose to make a higher high but fell to make a lower low before closing -ve below 7900 but above 200 dma. Daily candle is an inverted hammer but with strong +ve volume. hence, fall if any, may be limited. Bearish div present over longer term can succeed only if sustained selling resumes but gets negated above 7992 to begin with. Nifty must close above 7901/80 to start a rally while a close below 7814 can start a fall again. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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riteshucha
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Post: #37   PostPosted: Wed May 18, 2016 10:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay, a gap down opening on yesterdays inverted hammer confirms a shooting star if we get a big red candle by eod?? isnt it??

also wanted to know whether todays gap down on yest gap up qualifies as an island reversal???
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abhishek_33347
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Joined: 05 Jan 2014
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Post: #38   PostPosted: Wed May 18, 2016 12:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vinay,

Please explain and clear my doubt as riteshucha asking.
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
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Post: #39   PostPosted: Wed May 18, 2016 3:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Punjab National Bank (PNB) on Wednesday reported a net loss of Rs 5,367 crore for the March quarter.

This was the biggest quarterly loss in India's bank history. The lender had reported a net profit of Rs 307 crore in the corresponding quarter of last year.

The bank said its gross non-performing assets (NPAs) surged to 12.9 per cent in the fourth quarter against 8.47 per cent in the December quarter. In value terms, gross non-performing assets for the quarter stood at Rs 55,818 crore against Rs 34,338 crore in the third quarter. Provisions kept aside for bad assets stood at Rs 10,490 crore in the fourth quarter, compared with Rs 3,448 crore in the corresponding quarter of last year. Bank of Baroda had in December quarter reported a loss of Rs 3,342 crore.


The surge in npas and losses across banks last few months is kind of worrying[/quote]
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vinay28
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Post: #40   PostPosted: Wed May 18, 2016 6:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

riteshucha wrote:
vinay, a gap down opening on yesterdays inverted hammer confirms a shooting star if we get a big red candle by eod?? isnt it??

also wanted to know whether todays gap down on yest gap up qualifies as an island reversal???


yes to first query ritesh but it didn't happen. note that I did mention in my daily post that the inverted hammer had a strong +ve volume. also, there was no -ve div. today's green candle has -ve volume though not big enough. if tmrw again a big red candle with strong -ve volume, it is still possible.

possible is the answer to your second query. if tmrw we get a gap up open and a big green candle with strong +ve volume, that can be an island reversal too. see chart attached. it shows 11 attempts at so called "island reversals" since 15/04, some of which failed. we don't see such patterns too often. I may be biased but it seems to be a precursor for a big upmove, at least a big move.
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vinay28
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Post: #41   PostPosted: Wed May 18, 2016 8:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Thursday (19/05/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7851/43/30/24/14, 7783 and 7736 while resistances are at about 7906/35/56/95 and 8059. Unfilled gaps on the higher/lower side are about 7891/7733 resp. 200 dma is at about 7805. Four +WWs can give about 7968 (if above 7883) and 7997/8024/67 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 7725 (if below 7905) and 7641 (if below 7997) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give about 8015 if nifty breaks out above 7900.

Nifty opened gap down, fell further before rising sharply to close +ve and well above 7850. Daily volume is -ve but not strong. Hence, fall if any, may be limited. Bearish div present over longer term can succeed only if sustained selling resumes but gets negated above 7992 to begin with. Nifty must close above 7901 to begin with while a close below 7814 can start a fall again. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Post: #42   PostPosted: Thu May 19, 2016 8:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Friday (20/05/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 7746/37/22/14, 7695/68 and 7632 while resistances are at about 7812/32/54 and 7906/29. Unfilled gaps on the higher/lower side are about 7891/7733 resp. 200 dma is at about 7801. Two +WWs can give about 7850 (if above 7790) and 7870 (if above 7800) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 7712 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An HnS can give about 7755.

Nifty opened gap down and tanked to close below 7800. Volume was not commensurate with range. Bearish div being mentioned for the last few days seems to be giving results though selling is not heavy. Also, there is now a mild bullish div and hence we may see a sharp reversal soon. Nifty must close above 7901 to begin with though, on a weekly basis, a close above 7851 is adequate. A close below 7706 can cause more pain. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Post: #43   PostPosted: Thu May 19, 2016 8:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Updated NF levels as of 19/05.
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amitagg
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
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Post: #44   PostPosted: Thu May 19, 2016 9:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

riteshucha wrote:
vinay, a gap down opening on yesterdays inverted hammer confirms a shooting star if we get a big red candle by eod?? isnt it??

also wanted to know whether todays gap down on yest gap up qualifies as an island reversal???


Yes truly there are many in 7667-7777 region . I was banking on that in morning but the close was good negating it. Now today again it's back to down.......

It's is these levels 7667-7777 which are causing havoc since 200 dma is just inside and above and not below it and hence was holding up the market while the. Arket should have been down,

7770 was a key level from start of uptrend from 5113 and the rally to 9119 was a turning point in Indian market...... That was from dollex chart perspective.

Hence to kill time market would gyrate around these levels....... Laughing ( Vinay as always have already responded High level masterly way and we would take some time to understand and digest those key thoughts!)
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vinay28
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Post: #45   PostPosted: Fri May 20, 2016 8:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

watch 7832NS/7840NF
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