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Nifty View- May 2013 |
apka
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Post: #31  Posted: Thu May 02, 2013 12:05 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | I feel it is better to close all longs for now |
yep already in 5800pe, expecting 5780-5800 soon. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #32 Posted: Thu May 02, 2013 12:30 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | I feel it is better to close all longs for now |
yep already in 5800pe, expecting 5780-5800 soon. |
 don't |
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vinay28
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| Post: #33 Posted: Thu May 02, 2013 12:38 pm Post subject: |
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| This chart was posted on 19th April. |
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masa
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| Post: #34 Posted: Thu May 02, 2013 1:12 pm Post subject: |
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| Nifty Update till yesterday EOD |
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apka
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| Post: #35 Posted: Thu May 02, 2013 1:31 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | I feel it is better to close all longs for now |
yep already in 5800pe, expecting 5780-5800 soon. |
don't |
till when but it will rise you think? 5477 -> 6020 = 550 points rally non stop breaking all levels without consolidation and now VIX rising with nifty rising.
The last time VIX rose like this with nifty i think was in Feb 2012 when nifty rallied similar fashion and after 2 days crashed 150-200 points. Plus on charts I feel 6080 should be the top. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #36 Posted: Thu May 02, 2013 2:22 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | till when but it will rise you think? 5477 -> 6020 = 550 points rally non stop breaking all levels without consolidation and now VIX rising with nifty rising.
The last time VIX rose like this with nifty i think was in Feb 2012 when nifty rallied similar fashion and after 2 days crashed 150-200 points. Plus on charts I feel 6080 should be the top. |
so why don't you short at about 6070/75? But I feel you won't get much (max 5980) and nifty is headed much higher after a consolidation next week, if at all it consolidates. |
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apka
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| Post: #37 Posted: Thu May 02, 2013 2:24 pm Post subject: |
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| IF VIX closes above 16 tomorrow, it will be a weekly breakout on closing basis.... assuming it will rise, ur view vinay then for nifty range for next 30 days would become? |
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apka
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| Post: #38 Posted: Thu May 02, 2013 2:26 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | so why don't you short at about 6070/75? But I feel you won't get much (max 5980) and nifty is headed much higher after a consolidation next week, if at all it consolidates. |
cuz that's the maximum i was expecting, not expecting it to definitely come.
surprised to know u feel nifty is going much higher without consolidation. what is it going for - cup at 6300? |
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vinay28
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| Post: #39 Posted: Thu May 02, 2013 2:27 pm Post subject: |
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previous high was 17.85 right?
you can take 11.2% (my finding over last 15 years) rise from 5477 as first leg of the rise or about 6090 max I feel. But if nifty is indeed headed for much more then max 3.5% reaction from there but normally 2.1-2.8%. |
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apka
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| Post: #40 Posted: Thu May 02, 2013 2:32 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | previous high was 17.85 right?
you can take 11.2% (my finding over last 15 years) rise from 5477 as first leg of the rise or about 6090 max I feel. But if nifty is indeed headed for much more then max 3.5% reaction from there but normally 2.1-2.8%. |
ya 17.85. hmm, ok. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #41 Posted: Thu May 02, 2013 2:43 pm Post subject: |
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[quote="apka]ya 17.85. hmm, ok.[/quote]
incidentally, both vix and pcr have behaved contra as you can see. that's the dilemna I posted some days ago about contents of pcr i.e. how to guess whether it is a ratio due writing or buying. But a high vix certainly gives chances of big moves on either side e.g. if rbi cuts rate only by 0.25 or not at all, down move can also be 3.5-5.25% |
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vinay28
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| Post: #42 Posted: Thu May 02, 2013 3:01 pm Post subject: |
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| apka if you have bought 5900pe, SL is 50 and target 90. |
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apka
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| Post: #43 Posted: Thu May 02, 2013 3:22 pm Post subject: |
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| thanks vinay, noted. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #44 Posted: Thu May 02, 2013 3:38 pm Post subject: |
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| did you notice that nifty opened with 24 premium? should have taken hint from it. |
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masa
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| Post: #45 Posted: Thu May 02, 2013 5:34 pm Post subject: |
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| Nifty Update |
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