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Nifty View- May 2013
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Author Nifty View- May 2013
vinay28
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Post: #301   PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2013 2:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
masa wrote:
tax, apka, vinay.....where is stop now


sorry guys, had to leave early in morning. Just returned to see a mild +ve div. and sold my puts as of now. Will reassess situation after 2.45.
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masa
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Post: #302   PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2013 2:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
vinay28 wrote:
masa wrote:
tax, apka, vinay.....where is stop now


sorry guys, had to leave early in morning. Just returned to see a mild +ve div. and sold my puts as of now. Will reassess situation after 2.45.


sold my puts too...
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apka
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Post: #303   PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2013 2:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
good VIX and INR making it easier to fall
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apka
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Post: #304   PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2013 2:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Since VIX is going on rising... now 17.77, previous high 17.84 i think... we are in to see 20 as per charts. option premiums are going to rise even more.
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vinay28
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Post: #305   PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2013 2:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
masa wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
masa wrote:
tax, apka, vinay.....where is stop now


sorry guys, had to leave early in morning. Just returned to see a mild +ve div. and sold my puts as of now. Will reassess situation after 2.45.


sold my puts too...


I am also seeing some short covering in 6200ce. If it closes above 6018, I feel it is still safe. But best to lighten holdings as I had posted two days ago.
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vinay28
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Post: #306   PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2013 2:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
just see the massive increase in volume from 1.50 in NF and all options.

Also, infy seems to have stabilised and I feel ril may reverse from about 802 or 796.
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apka
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Post: #307   PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2013 3:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
careful vinay, im not seeing so. 6200ce has added 14 lakh shares going from 80 -> 94 lakh OI and 6000ce has added 12 lakh OI.
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SP50
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Post: #308   PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2013 3:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
At this rate we are likely to reach 5700 by 17th May itself, 24 24 24
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vinay28
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Post: #309   PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2013 3:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
yes apka, but this huge vol after 1.50 may affect pcr a great deal. Also, INR may close hopefully below 55.
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apka
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Post: #310   PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2013 5:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
vinay28 wrote:
yes apka, but this huge vol after 1.50 may affect pcr a great deal. Also, INR may close hopefully below 55.


which candle vinay, nifty fut?

EOD 6200ce has gone to 78 lakh (shedding 1.65 lakh shares, lol)...

But 6000ce addition is intact adding 14 lakh shares, total OI standing at 60 lakh shares. And neither the shedding of OI in 5800pe, 5900pe, 6000pe, 6100pe saw any sort of reversal. It increased at EOD.

So at 1.50pm both nifty fut and 6200ce price fell down a lot. And nifty fut EOD shedding OI about 12 lakh shares. Total standing at 213 lakhs... suggesting today's fall was long exits / profit booking, not short covering.
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EssJay
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Post: #311   PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2013 5:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
apka wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
yes apka, but this huge vol after 1.50 may affect pcr a great deal. Also, INR may close hopefully below 55.


which candle vinay, nifty fut?

EOD 6200ce has gone to 78 lakh (shedding 1.65 lakh shares, lol)...

But 6000ce addition is intact adding 14 lakh shares, total OI standing at 60 lakh shares. And neither the shedding of OI in 5800pe, 5900pe, 6000pe, 6100pe saw any sort of reversal. It increased at EOD.

So at 1.50pm both nifty fut and 6200ce price fell down a lot. And nifty fut EOD shedding OI about 12 lakh shares. Total standing at 213 lakhs... suggesting today's fall was long exits / profit booking, not short covering.


You mean no fresh shorting?
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apka
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Post: #312   PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2013 6:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
EssJay wrote:
apka wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
yes apka, but this huge vol after 1.50 may affect pcr a great deal. Also, INR may close hopefully below 55.


which candle vinay, nifty fut?

EOD 6200ce has gone to 78 lakh (shedding 1.65 lakh shares, lol)...

But 6000ce addition is intact adding 14 lakh shares, total OI standing at 60 lakh shares. And neither the shedding of OI in 5800pe, 5900pe, 6000pe, 6100pe saw any sort of reversal. It increased at EOD.

So at 1.50pm both nifty fut and 6200ce price fell down a lot. And nifty fut EOD shedding OI about 12 lakh shares. Total standing at 213 lakhs... suggesting today's fall was long exits / profit booking, not short covering.


You mean no fresh shorting?


nifty fut and 6200ce - long exits

6000ce - shorting

5800,5900,6000,6100pe - short covering
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EssJay
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Post: #313   PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2013 6:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
So, basically bad news for longs. Apka, till what level can It pull back? For fresh shorting.
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masa
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Post: #314   PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2013 6:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Nifty Update
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apka
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Post: #315   PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2013 6:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
EssJay wrote:
So, basically bad news for longs. Apka, till what level can It pull back? For fresh shorting.


yeh i think maybe more fall is due tomorrow thats why 6000ce has been written in bulk.

Immediately 6025. Then 6044-6050 spot area comes as the resistence as opening points joining from nov 2010 -> jan 2013 and passing through.

And then the main one which took 3-4 attempts to break : 6080-6090.

vinay is still bullish though, so I dont want to take risk against his instinct this time haha. this week's candle should be important after 4 strong white ones.
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