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Nifty View- May 2013 |
SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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Post: #586  Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 10:58 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | SP50 wrote: | I exited all the 820CE on friday.  |
and yet you are smiling?  |
Well my average cost was 10 and I sold it for 32 so nothing wrong I guess, was not hoping to buy a ship out of that profit |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #587 Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 11:02 am Post subject: |
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| SP50 wrote: | | Well my average cost was 10 and I sold it for 32 so nothing wrong I guess, was not hoping to buy a ship out of that profit |
you could have sold partially. see today's high |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #588 Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 11:03 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | SP50 wrote: | | Well my average cost was 10 and I sold it for 32 so nothing wrong I guess, was not hoping to buy a ship out of that profit |
you could have sold partially. see today's high |
True that was my mistake, still adolescent sir, to trade like a pro I am way off.. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #589 Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 11:27 am Post subject: |
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| 6200pe has added over 16 lakh shares intraday. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #590 Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 11:39 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | 6200pe has added over 16 lakh shares intraday. |
what is the status of 6200ce? |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #591 Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 11:51 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | 6200pe has added over 16 lakh shares intraday. |
what is the status of 6200ce? |
standstill to some shedding. total OI 73 lakhs.
6200pe total now 53 lakh. |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #592 Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 2:37 pm Post subject: |
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| if there is a retracement to the cup and handle breakout before moving up, we may see 6060-6080 at max and then rise again. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #593 Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 3:14 pm Post subject: |
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| vix made a high of 18 |
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beowulf
White Belt
Joined: 18 Aug 2010
Posts: 163
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| Post: #594 Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 5:59 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | vix made a high of 18 |
Hi Vinay,
Sorry if this question is dated and redundant, but can you post/point to some details on how VIX and NIFTY are related. Is this a equation of some kind. Typically what kind of VIX levels signal caution etc... |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #595 Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 6:50 pm Post subject: |
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| beowulf, this has been discussed many times in this and previous "nifty view" threads. Pl search for them. BUT, lately, particularly in May, this relationship is confusing and I feel it is mainly due to high pcr. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #596 Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 7:35 pm Post subject: |
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what VIX has been since last year till feb this year, i.e., coming down from 20 levels to below 13 (which became all time low and it came in 2013).... is suggesting the most eased trend performance of Nifty.
In 2011 Aug fall VIX went to 35 or so and it tend to remain about 22-30 most times.
Any easing near to 20 or below meant smoother movement / trend for nifty. It's Volatility Index, which is a measure of the volatility which lies in Index Options. The higher the VIX the higher the prices of options -- because it implies people are buying options at a higher premium. If it goes negative at the same place where nifty was hours back when VIX was positive... you will see drop in option premiums.
This current rise in VIX and the rise in Nifty are not normal in comparement to history.
The more nifty moves up and down, i.e., remains volatile -- the higher the VIX will be. So, as per me this VIX rise, indicating extra premium in Index put and call options, is "just preparing for the worst incase of a fall from this height".... because from this zone (6000 plus) we have normally seen only one trend after some-time, i.e., downtrend.... If by this week nifty does not breach 6060-6080 zone, we may say everyday exit of puts been bought before, resulting in VIX going down.
Incase, nifty goes to 6400 and VIX goes to 28, your price of 6100pe may remain the same or not lose much premium as per price, because of the volility. So, VIX is not direct indicator of trend, but an anticipated preparation of Option buyers. Whether it will hold or not we have to watch and judge. |
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pkholla
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Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #597 Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 7:42 pm Post subject: |
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| SP50 wrote: | | Well my average cost was 10 and I sold it for 32 so nothing wrong I guess, was not hoping to buy a ship out of that profit |
Tax: Congrats. Nice profit. You are the sanest person in this lot! Book your profits while you can is a sound strategy. Kal ko kisne dekha hai? Prakash Holla |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #598 Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 7:52 pm Post subject: |
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| pkholla wrote: | | SP50 wrote: | | Well my average cost was 10 and I sold it for 32 so nothing wrong I guess, was not hoping to buy a ship out of that profit |
Tax: Congrats. Nice profit. You are the sanest person in this lot! Book your profits while you can is a sound strategy. Kal ko kisne dekha hai? Prakash Holla |
fair enough then i, vinay, saumya must be  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #599 Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 7:53 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | pkholla wrote: | | SP50 wrote: | | Well my average cost was 10 and I sold it for 32 so nothing wrong I guess, was not hoping to buy a ship out of that profit |
Tax: Congrats. Nice profit. You are the sanest person in this lot! Book your profits while you can is a sound strategy. Kal ko kisne dekha hai? Prakash Holla |
fair enough then i, vinay, saumya must be |
let prakash search the appropriate word! |
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beowulf
White Belt
Joined: 18 Aug 2010
Posts: 163
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| Post: #600 Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 8:15 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | what VIX has been since last year till feb this year, i.e., coming down from 20 levels to below 13 (which became all time low and it came in 2013).... is suggesting the most eased trend performance of Nifty.
In 2011 Aug fall VIX went to 35 or so and it tend to remain about 22-30 most times.
Any easing near to 20 or below meant smoother movement / trend for nifty. It's Volatility Index, which is a measure of the volatility which lies in Index Options. The higher the VIX the higher the prices of options -- because it implies people are buying options at a higher premium. If it goes negative at the same place where nifty was hours back when VIX was positive... you will see drop in option premiums.
This current rise in VIX and the rise in Nifty are not normal in comparement to history.
The more nifty moves up and down, i.e., remains volatile -- the higher the VIX will be. So, as per me this VIX rise, indicating extra premium in Index put and call options, is "just preparing for the worst incase of a fall from this height".... because from this zone (6000 plus) we have normally seen only one trend after some-time, i.e., downtrend.... If by this week nifty does not breach 6060-6080 zone, we may say everyday exit of puts been bought before, resulting in VIX going down.
Incase, nifty goes to 6400 and VIX goes to 28, your price of 6100pe may remain the same or not lose much premium as per price, because of the volility. So, VIX is not direct indicator of trend, but an anticipated preparation of Option buyers. Whether it will hold or not we have to watch and judge. |
Thanks apka...
I was just looking at VIX long term charts. Can somebody advise if this is a +ww on it. I dont have any tools to draw/post
Point 1: Vix ~13 - 6-8 March 2013
Point 2: Vix ~ 18+ - 3rd week of March
Point 3: Vix ~ 14 - 5-7 April
Point 4: Vix ~17 - Mid-20 April
Point 5: Vix ~ 14 - Last week of April
After that it has been rising steadily...
IF THIS IS TRUE the target is ~22-23
Please let me know if there are any corrections/flaws in this...
Thanks,
Beo |
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