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Nifty View- May 2013 |
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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Post: #871  Posted: Wed May 29, 2013 7:52 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | Calls:
6200ce : Total OI 71.80 lakhs (Addition: 8 lakh)
6100ce : Total OI 67.40 lakhs (Addition: 1 lakh)
6000ce : Total OI 29.80 lakhs (Shedding: 1 lakh)
Puts:
6000pe : Total OI 73.30 lakhs (Addition: 2 lakh)
6100pe : Total OI 53.70 lakhs (Shedding: 0.5 Lakh)
If everybody just keeps exiting their puts and calls tomorrow also, we will swing like a monkey like today. |
apka, change over the day is not much. Is it possible for you to find out eod NF close day before last expiry, eod OI on day before expiry and then both data on eod expiry? |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #872 Posted: Wed May 29, 2013 8:35 pm Post subject: |
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that i dont have vinay, i'll look if i can find.
but from many expiry week observations, definately before or at expiry an OI of over 1 cr is protected by writers, 80lakhs-1cr is strong, and anything below 80 lakhs is not strong enough to make market not breach it from writers point.
so this expiry is unique, i dont remember not seeing any side of strike OI not above 80 lakhs. None of the strikes are above 80 lakhs in this series, any side can breach. |
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beowulf
White Belt
Joined: 18 Aug 2010
Posts: 163
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| Post: #873 Posted: Wed May 29, 2013 9:57 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | that i dont have vinay, i'll look if i can find.
but from many expiry week observations, definately before or at expiry an OI of over 1 cr is protected by writers, 80lakhs-1cr is strong, and anything below 80 lakhs is not strong enough to make market not breach it from writers point.
so this expiry is unique, i dont remember not seeing any side of strike OI not above 80 lakhs. None of the strikes are above 80 lakhs in this series, any side can breach. |
Hi Apka,
Do you have any basic material that explains how to analyze OI numbers...
Just saw Europe cracked today and US opened really weak, this + expiry= we might have an action packed day tomorrow... |
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navdak1703
White Belt
Joined: 03 Aug 2011
Posts: 3
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| Post: #874 Posted: Wed May 29, 2013 10:03 pm Post subject: |
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Dow jones is deep in red on Fed stimulus uncertainity...there might be a gap down tomorrow..and then there is a high chance of nifty expiring between 5980 and 6050,6100PE and 6000PE is going to be rocking tomorrow...lets watch  |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #875 Posted: Wed May 29, 2013 10:25 pm Post subject: |
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| beowulf wrote: | | apka wrote: | that i dont have vinay, i'll look if i can find.
but from many expiry week observations, definately before or at expiry an OI of over 1 cr is protected by writers, 80lakhs-1cr is strong, and anything below 80 lakhs is not strong enough to make market not breach it from writers point.
so this expiry is unique, i dont remember not seeing any side of strike OI not above 80 lakhs. None of the strikes are above 80 lakhs in this series, any side can breach. |
Hi Apka,
Do you have any basic material that explains how to analyze OI numbers...
Just saw Europe cracked today and US opened really weak, this + expiry= we might have an action packed day tomorrow... |
beowulf, i dont have any reading material on it nor have I read anything on it. All of it is my own interpretations based on my own observations in 2-3 years.
before i started watching FNO, i had just read somewhere that writing of options is more riskier than buying, because in writing the loss is unlimited and profit is limited which is vice versa in case of buying options. So the basic unwritten rule I keep in mind is option writers are market movers and vest the money power to control nifty. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #876 Posted: Thu May 30, 2013 8:23 am Post subject: |
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Nifty for Thursday (30/05/13)
Supports are at about 6100, 6081, 6055 and 6005 while resistances are at about 6118, 6141 and 6171. Four +WWs give about 6121, 6174, 6202 and 6280 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs give about 6067, 6043 and 6025 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A rising wedge BD can give about 5936 unless nifty remains above 6118. A falling channel has broken out and can give 6138 unless nifty goes down again. A complex HnS can give 5928/5867 if nifty goes down and remains below 6057.
Nifty reacted a bit but managed to close above 6100. However, it is still not bullish unless it closes above 6168 to begin with. The daily candle is a hanging man, a bearish sign, which will be confirmed if nifty closes well below 6104, particularly after a gap down open. If it closes below 6050, it may slide further. A high value of VIX and PCR can cause sharp and sudden movements. Only a noticeable drop in them along with global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty up further. Trade carefully as Thursday is expiry day. |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #877 Posted: Thu May 30, 2013 9:31 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | that i dont have vinay, i'll look if i can find.
but from many expiry week observations, definately before or at expiry an OI of over 1 cr is protected by writers, 80lakhs-1cr is strong, and anything below 80 lakhs is not strong enough to make market not breach it from writers point.
so this expiry is unique, i dont remember not seeing any side of strike OI not above 80 lakhs. None of the strikes are above 80 lakhs in this series, any side can breach. |
Apka this I will really need ur help to understand how you worked out on this one. U really need someone wholely focused behind thing to really get this working. But thanks to you that you have mastered it and able to tell us about it,  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #878 Posted: Thu May 30, 2013 9:47 am Post subject: |
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NF opened with 20 discount and now in premium.
high discount near/on expiry day suggests lesser shorts being carried forward and hence a likelyhood of short covering. At the same time, not much premium in June suggests not much longs being carried forward and that means traders uncertain about june. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #879 Posted: Thu May 30, 2013 10:00 am Post subject: |
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| vix at day's low at 17.14 |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #880 Posted: Thu May 30, 2013 10:03 am Post subject: |
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| SP50 wrote: | | Apka this I will really need ur help to understand how you worked out on this one. U really need someone wholely focused behind thing to really get this working. But thanks to you that you have mastered it and able to tell us about it, |
oh no im not master...just keen follower of fno.
6200ce crossed 95 lakh OI. and 6000pe crossed 90 lakh OI.
both side look protected to me now. game is between:
6100pe has total OI 66 lakh (12 lakh added today)
6100ce has total OI 77 lakh (10 lakh added today) |
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vinay28
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Posts: 11748
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| Post: #881 Posted: Thu May 30, 2013 10:22 am Post subject: |
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| 6146NF is possible to begin with. |
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riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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| Post: #882 Posted: Thu May 30, 2013 10:23 am Post subject: |
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| any tricks for today magician.. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #883 Posted: Thu May 30, 2013 10:25 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | vix at day's low at 17.14 |
low of 17.07 as of now |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #884 Posted: Thu May 30, 2013 10:26 am Post subject: |
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| riteshucha wrote: | | any tricks for today magician.. |
6100ce if it makes a new low, say < 5. Also 6200ce is just 0.20.  |
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riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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| Post: #885 Posted: Thu May 30, 2013 10:30 am Post subject: |
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thanks but just a little doubt..,
with dollar at 10 month high.. u still belive nifty can climb >6200 ? |
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