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Nifty View- May 2013 |
SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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Post: #1  Posted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 2:35 pm Post subject: Nifty View- May 2013 |
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Hope we can now have some posts here on May 2013.
I am busy with year end so will start trading next week.
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #2 Posted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 2:46 pm Post subject: |
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ha ha, malum hai, sub jaga raid kar rahe ho!
this thread starts from 1st May dear |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #3 Posted: Sat Apr 27, 2013 3:24 pm Post subject: |
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A comment on the recent trend change again so you incoporate it in your observation too........I had posted the below on 8th April:
| apka wrote: | DII have been accumulating since 4-5 days. After long several weeks of selling and after we are 600 points down from our recent high.
Its my observation that when this happens bottom is near. One of these days if we see sell off, volitility in price action and EOD DII buying in good numbers.. i think that will be the bottom. |
And on 9th I had said:
| apka wrote: | | I think we are going to bottom out somewhere near and incase of a consolidation go maximum down to 5280. But for first time 5440-5450 should give a sharp bounce back. Lets see. |
I had precovered at what is about to happen and what will be the bottom. On 9th April DII bought +987Cr and on the same day we saw first sell off, new low, lot of volitility in price action and eod DII buying in good numbers. All conditions satisfied near an important level 5450. Exact 5450 didnt come but sharp bounce did happen.
Without sounding as pompous, basically I am saying, it's easy to be the one to follow the trend and "short on rise" or "buy on dips" but one should know when to stop and reverse to maximise profitable trades. Trend reversal finding is not rocket science and can be done if you sincerely follow the data, backtrack previous data and trend changes and identify important weekly levels for nifty. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #4 Posted: Sat Apr 27, 2013 4:07 pm Post subject: |
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| true apka. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #5 Posted: Sat Apr 27, 2013 6:06 pm Post subject: |
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| Two charts attached showing similar possibilities in immediate and long term. |
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chandrujimrc
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Joined: 21 Apr 2009
Posts: 1683
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| Post: #6 Posted: Sat Apr 27, 2013 7:12 pm Post subject: |
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| Dear vinay, asper your chart Nifty should touch atleast 6000.. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #7 Posted: Sat Apr 27, 2013 7:21 pm Post subject: |
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| chandrujimrc wrote: | | Dear vinay, as per your chart Nifty should touch atleast 6000.. |
6000?  
Looks like you didn't see my posts of 10/11 April in thread for "nifty view - April 2013"!  |
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chandrujimrc
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Joined: 21 Apr 2009
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| Post: #8 Posted: Sat Apr 27, 2013 9:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Dear masa,Nifty latest chart pl. with your markings. |
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masa
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Joined: 06 Jan 2007
Posts: 162
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| Post: #9 Posted: Sat Apr 27, 2013 10:06 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote:
chandrujimrc wrote:
Dear vinay, will you able to predict the mkt by using India VIX?
chandru, VIX gives volatility and hence the range on either side. On a monthly basis, it's very easy to predict the range for the next month assuming vix remains constant. e.g. with yesterday's close of about 5558 and vix of 16.49, the range till 9/5 is (plus/minus sq rt 16.49*5558/100). You can calculate this range every day for next 30 days based on eod vix value.
On a more shorter time frame as daily, I had been trying to find some way to provide input to ST for his market sentiment study. However, I found that vix alone does not help and pcr also plays a major role. So I tried pcr*vix. It does give some good idea, as I have found. But it is more complicated than one can think. e.g. I had correctly found that nifty goes up if product is 14 or less. But in recent days, nifty went down. Not because the basis is wrong but because vix has been moving sharply on either side intraday.
also, pcr can be misleading. since options are almost always written, pcr is a good guide e.g. I have been pointing out that if pcr is <0.9 nifty goes up, provided of course vix helps by being below 15.50. But on rare ocassions, pcr is more decided by buying in options and not writing. That messes up things.
vinay
could you please explain in detail once again. I did not understand. |
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masa
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Joined: 06 Jan 2007
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| Post: #10 Posted: Sat Apr 27, 2013 10:24 pm Post subject: |
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| Nifty Update |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #11 Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 11:35 am Post subject: |
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| masa wrote: | vinay28 wrote:
chandrujimrc wrote:
Dear vinay, will you able to predict the mkt by using India VIX?
chandru, VIX gives volatility and hence the range on either side. On a monthly basis, it's very easy to predict the range for the next month assuming vix remains constant. e.g. with yesterday's close of about 5558 and vix of 16.49, the range till 9/5 is (plus/minus sq rt 16.49*5558/100). You can calculate this range every day for next 30 days based on eod vix value.
On a more shorter time frame as daily, I had been trying to find some way to provide input to ST for his market sentiment study. However, I found that vix alone does not help and pcr also plays a major role. So I tried pcr*vix. It does give some good idea, as I have found. But it is more complicated than one can think. e.g. I had correctly found that nifty goes up if product is 14 or less. But in recent days, nifty went down. Not because the basis is wrong but because vix has been moving sharply on either side intraday.
also, pcr can be misleading. since options are almost always written, pcr is a good guide e.g. I have been pointing out that if pcr is <0.9 nifty goes up, provided of course vix helps by being below 15.50. But on rare ocassions, pcr is more decided by buying in options and not writing. That messes up things.
vinay
could you please explain in detail once again. I did not understand. |
Masa - what is that you didn't understand? |
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masa
White Belt
Joined: 06 Jan 2007
Posts: 162
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| Post: #12 Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 11:42 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | masa wrote: | vinay28 wrote:
chandrujimrc wrote:
Dear vinay, will you able to predict the mkt by using India VIX?
chandru, VIX gives volatility and hence the range on either side. On a monthly basis, it's very easy to predict the range for the next month assuming vix remains constant. e.g. with yesterday's close of about 5558 and vix of 16.49, the range till 9/5 is (plus/minus sq rt 16.49*5558/100). You can calculate this range every day for next 30 days based on eod vix value.
On a more shorter time frame as daily, I had been trying to find some way to provide input to ST for his market sentiment study. However, I found that vix alone does not help and pcr also plays a major role. So I tried pcr*vix. It does give some good idea, as I have found. But it is more complicated than one can think. e.g. I had correctly found that nifty goes up if product is 14 or less. But in recent days, nifty went down. Not because the basis is wrong but because vix has been moving sharply on either side intraday.
also, pcr can be misleading. since options are almost always written, pcr is a good guide e.g. I have been pointing out that if pcr is <0.9 nifty goes up, provided of course vix helps by being below 15.50. But on rare ocassions, pcr is more decided by buying in options and not writing. That messes up things.
vinay
could you please explain in detail once again. I did not understand. |
Masa - what is that you didn't understand? |
details shown by maths solution in current market levels.
can we also use for weekly levels?
pl show by maths solution as I am weak in maths. |
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pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #13 Posted: Wed May 01, 2013 8:57 pm Post subject: |
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I had posted on 27 March 2013 the following as per Robert Miner Fib Retracement Theory": All NS, EOD, closing values
______________________________________________
Miner Fib Retracement: Let me stick my neck out again!
One set 2nd set
.786 5890.7 1.618 6028.4
.618 5849.6 1.000 5877.7
.500 5820.8 0.618 5784.5
.382 5791.9
Immediately we can expect NS (close) to reach 5784.5-5791.9
Next we can expect 5849.6 - 5877.7
If crosses 5890.7 then further nice rally upwards can be expected and we may even see 6028.4
_________________________________________________
now lets see if my guru's 6028.4 is coming next!
Prakash Holla |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #14 Posted: Thu May 02, 2013 8:15 am Post subject: |
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| pkholla wrote: | I had posted on 27 March 2013 the following as per Robert Miner Fib Retracement Theory": All NS, EOD, closing values
______________________________________________
Miner Fib Retracement: Let me stick my neck out again!
One set 2nd set
.786 5890.7 1.618 6028.4
.618 5849.6 1.000 5877.7
.500 5820.8 0.618 5784.5
.382 5791.9
Immediately we can expect NS (close) to reach 5784.5-5791.9
Next we can expect 5849.6 - 5877.7
If crosses 5890.7 then further nice rally upwards can be expected and we may even see 6028.4
_________________________________________________
now lets see if my guru's 6028.4 is coming next!
Prakash Holla |
Prakash, why it has to go down first? Why not straight to 6028? Just a doubt if you could clarify |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #15 Posted: Thu May 02, 2013 8:31 am Post subject: |
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| that was posted by him march 27, he is quoting it again to remind 5890.70 has crossed so 6028 is the trgt now. |
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