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Nifty View - May Series 2014 |
saumya12
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
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Post: #46  Posted: Fri May 02, 2014 12:49 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | riteshucha wrote: | 6900 CE traded at 167 when NIFTY was trading at 6757/6760 (arnd 10 ish)... now NF trading at 6747/6750, CE trading at 169/170...  |
so is the state of PEs. Today must close at/above 6734NS. |
And suppose it doesnt
Then
I am talking of close only
Though IMO, we can see 6775/80 NF soon |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #47 Posted: Fri May 02, 2014 1:25 pm Post subject: |
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| saumya12 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | riteshucha wrote: | | 6900 CE traded at 167 when NIFTY was trading at 6757/6760 (arnd 10 ish)... now NF trading at 6747/6750, CE trading at 169/170... |
so is the state of PEs. Today must close at/above 6734NS. |
And suppose it doesnt
Then
I am talking of close only
Though IMO, we can see 6775/80 NF soon |
today's NF high after opening is recorded as 6778.55
I wouldn't be surprised to see 6500 spot next week. |
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riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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| Post: #48 Posted: Fri May 02, 2014 2:05 pm Post subject: |
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| today gap filled... |
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riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
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| Post: #49 Posted: Fri May 02, 2014 2:08 pm Post subject: |
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| look at CE still at 171... |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #50 Posted: Fri May 02, 2014 2:10 pm Post subject: |
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| riteshucha wrote: | | today gap filled... |
how is gap filling to be interpreted [generally] as per TA....can anybody guide? |
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rrk2006hyd
Yellow Belt
Joined: 13 Oct 2010
Posts: 874
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| Post: #51 Posted: Fri May 02, 2014 2:26 pm Post subject: |
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| why 7300ce and 6200pe ,premiums are increasing?any reason for that? |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #52 Posted: Fri May 02, 2014 2:43 pm Post subject: |
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| rrk2006hyd wrote: | | why 7300ce and 6200pe ,premiums are increasing?any reason for that? |
RRK explained yesterday.....premiums to increase a day or two....call puts to be sold....and options buyers to go by the wayside.........
currently some combos are giving 490/510/530 [7000]
on normal occasions it is 270/340....go good risk reward...."timing" entry is key.....enter when u see "sharp spike" up or down....since it often accompanies by expansion in volatility for "few minutes"....entering into end of such moves can be rewarding..... |
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amitagg
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| Post: #53 Posted: Fri May 02, 2014 2:44 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | rrk2006hyd wrote: | | why 7300ce and 6200pe ,premiums are increasing?any reason for that? |
RRK explained yesterday.....premiums to increase a day or two....call puts to be sold....and options buyers to go by the wayside.........
currently some combos are giving 490/510/530 [7000]
on normal occasions it is 270/340....go good risk reward...."timing" entry is key.....enter when u see "sharp spike" up or down....since it often accompanies by expansion in volatility for "few minutes"....entering into end of such moves can be rewarding..... |
another reasons can be they had sold call puts earlier....and nearing the event....OTM hedges are being taken..... |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #54 Posted: Fri May 02, 2014 2:45 pm Post subject: |
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| rrk2006hyd wrote: | | why 7300ce and 6200pe ,premiums are increasing?any reason for that? |
rrk where have you been? Euphoria for election results on May 16...... 2009 resulted in upper circuit... options gamblers are betting on big movement this time also.
I think what it will give options buyers is phuski bomb like incase of INFY results. Premiums are too high. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #55 Posted: Fri May 02, 2014 2:52 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | rrk2006hyd wrote: | | why 7300ce and 6200pe ,premiums are increasing?any reason for that? |
rrk where have you been? Euphoria for election results on May 16...... 2009 resulted in upper circuit... options gamblers are betting on big movement this time also.
I think what it will give options buyers is phuski bomb like incase of INFY results. Premiums are too high. |
apka, whats the range u anticipate in case some braveheart would to sell the call puts....which combo...to eat 500 premium [ or part thereof] looks good? |
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pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #56 Posted: Fri May 02, 2014 2:56 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | I think what it will give options buyers is phuski bomb like in case of INFY results. Premiums are too high. |
I suggested THREE times to NSE to give quote of TRUE VALUE of option on option page, (just like spot value quoted on future page), derived by Sholes- Black model so that we can avoid crooks quoting too high selling value (OR too low buying value). But total silence.
I think bada bada CROOKS more valuable to NSE than Mango Aadmi
Jai Hind, Prakash Holla |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #57 Posted: Fri May 02, 2014 2:57 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | riteshucha wrote: | | today gap filled... |
how is gap filling to be interpreted [generally] as per TA....can anybody guide? |
if the trend is to continue then price reverses after filling the gap. so one has to see whether next pivot is also broken to guage if trend itself is reversing |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #58 Posted: Fri May 02, 2014 3:32 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | apka wrote: | | rrk2006hyd wrote: | | why 7300ce and 6200pe ,premiums are increasing?any reason for that? |
rrk where have you been? Euphoria for election results on May 16...... 2009 resulted in upper circuit... options gamblers are betting on big movement this time also.
I think what it will give options buyers is phuski bomb like incase of INFY results. Premiums are too high. |
apka, whats the range u anticipate in case some braveheart would to sell the call puts....which combo...to eat 500 premium [ or part thereof] looks good? |
now? premiums can rise even more... VIX can goto 50 and nifty can give really wide swings in the next 10 days... theres no real way to know even....
500 points at this level is under 10% movement for nifty, considering election result is in middle of may, and counting days remaining for expiry.. even a 5% movement can be eough to bring you at par or in loss if premiums rise from here further.
i wouldnt suggest trying it... but if you want then 5800pe and 7700ce looks the best bet... but why risk for few double digit points...
Last edited by apka on Fri May 02, 2014 3:34 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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| Post: #59 Posted: Fri May 02, 2014 3:34 pm Post subject: |
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vinay.. NF low 6720.10...waaah..
| vinay28 wrote: | | riteshucha wrote: | hmmm...
whats ur call today vinay.. as in intra levels.. |
long with SL 6720NF |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #60 Posted: Fri May 02, 2014 3:36 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | apka wrote: | | rrk2006hyd wrote: | | why 7300ce and 6200pe ,premiums are increasing?any reason for that? |
rrk where have you been? Euphoria for election results on May 16...... 2009 resulted in upper circuit... options gamblers are betting on big movement this time also.
I think what it will give options buyers is phuski bomb like incase of INFY results. Premiums are too high. |
apka, whats the range u anticipate in case some braveheart would to sell the call puts....which combo...to eat 500 premium [ or part thereof] looks good? |
now? premiums can rise even more... VIX can goto 50 and nifty can give really wide swings in the next 10 days... theres no real way to know even....
500 points at this level is under 10% movement for nifty, considering election result is in middle of may, and counting days remaining for expiry.. even a 5% movement can be eough to bring you at par or in loss if premiums rise from here further.
i wouldnt suggest trying it... but if you want then 5800pe and 7700ce looks the best bet... but why risk for few double digit points... |
the writers will use any hike in premium to again write, and probably hedge with VIX futures... you shouldnt try writing at this time if its only going to be one call and one put. |
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