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Nifty View - November Series 2013 |
vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #1  Posted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:10 pm Post subject: Nifty View - November Series 2013 |
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New thread. Pl use from tmrw unless you want to post for Nov series.
My first post for the new series
Nifty range for 30 days from 31/10
6633.6/5964.7 NS and 6667.4/5995.2 NF
I feel lower levels are more likely. Sorry apka, I don't like it too. |
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rrk2006hyd
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Joined: 13 Oct 2010
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| Post: #2 Posted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:52 pm Post subject: |
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| Thank you..vinayji... |
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vinay28
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| Post: #3 Posted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:33 pm Post subject: |
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Nifty for Friday (01/11/13)
Previous all time high level is at about 6357 while all time high daily close is at about 6312. A +WW can give about 6345 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Five -WWs can give about 6241 (once below 6276), 6230 (once below 6274), 6207 (once below 6254), 6106 (once below 6257) and 6070 (once below 6257) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Break down of a few rising wedges/channels can give about 6030/5880/ 5825/5700 if nifty goes below 6140. Two bullish flags can give higher targets unless killed below 6269 and 6170.
Nifty rose again in spite of a gap down open and closed just above 6300 and appears headed further North. At the same time, it may be tiring out and may take a breather for consolidation. A weekly close below about 6180 may cause a fall. Oil price and/or INR can play spoilsport any time and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global/local cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.
Progressive break of 6288/75/62/47/30 NS will need to be watched with caution. |
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apka
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| Post: #4 Posted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 9:31 am Post subject: |
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sensex new high... dhating naach  |
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ca.krishna
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Joined: 17 Sep 2013
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| Post: #5 Posted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 10:43 am Post subject: |
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BSE Sensex touched ad crossed new high but Nifty is still 25-30 points away from life time high.
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apka
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| Post: #6 Posted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 10:50 am Post subject: |
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| ca.krishna wrote: | BSE Sensex touched ad crossed new high but Nifty is still 25-30 points away from life time high.
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equation thoda aagey peeche ho gaya hain.. but one should follow the other. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #7 Posted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 11:14 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | ca.krishna wrote: | BSE Sensex touched ad crossed new high but Nifty is still 25-30 points away from life time high.
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equation thoda aagey peeche ho gaya hain.. but one should follow the other. |
it's not just an one-off thing, apka. This was expected if you remember my post in ST's thread and that is, sensex/nifty ratio has increased to about 3.34 from about 3.33, which was so for years. |
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apka
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| Post: #8 Posted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 11:45 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | ca.krishna wrote: | BSE Sensex touched ad crossed new high but Nifty is still 25-30 points away from life time high.
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equation thoda aagey peeche ho gaya hain.. but one should follow the other. |
it's not just an one-off thing, apka. This was expected if you remember my post in ST's thread and that is, sensex/nifty ratio has increased to about 3.34 from about 3.33, which was so for years. |
hmm |
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himanshu733
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Joined: 21 Jul 2013
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| Post: #9 Posted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 5:00 pm Post subject: |
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NS in points terms is reaching all time high, but you have to take into consideration price discounting factor for last 5 years to determine exact high levels.
Take total market capitalization in 2008, compare it to market capitalization of 2013(discount it for 5 years, taking risk free rate for India as 8%). You will get current highs of 6300 as equivalent to that of 5700 in 2008(Still 600 points off of the real high for year 2008) |
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apka
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| Post: #10 Posted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 5:53 pm Post subject: |
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| himanshu733 wrote: | NS in points terms is reaching all time high, but you have to take into consideration price discounting factor for last 5 years to determine exact high levels.
Take total market capitalization in 2008, compare it to market capitalization of 2013(discount it for 5 years, taking risk free rate for India as 8%). You will get current highs of 6300 as equivalent to that of 5700 in 2008(Still 600 points off of the real high for year 2008) |
need to look at Defty's value to get a picture in terms of dollars. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #11 Posted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 8:44 pm Post subject: |
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| himanshu733 wrote: | NS in points terms is reaching all time high, but you have to take into consideration price discounting factor for last 5 years to determine exact high levels.
Take total market capitalization in 2008, compare it to market capitalization of 2013(discount it for 5 years, taking risk free rate for India as 8%). You will get current highs of 6300 as equivalent to that of 5700 in 2008(Still 600 points off of the real high for year 2008) |
that way, if you take it (a) in real dollar terms, (b) inflation, (c) earnings ,etc., nifty < 4200. The reason nifty did not reach new high though sensex did is its constituents, as compared to sensex, some which of 50% of 2008. |
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himanshu733
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Joined: 21 Jul 2013
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| Post: #12 Posted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 9:04 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | himanshu733 wrote: | NS in points terms is reaching all time high, but you have to take into consideration price discounting factor for last 5 years to determine exact high levels.
Take total market capitalization in 2008, compare it to market capitalization of 2013(discount it for 5 years, taking risk free rate for India as 8%). You will get current highs of 6300 as equivalent to that of 5700 in 2008(Still 600 points off of the real high for year 2008) |
that way, if you take it (a) in real dollar terms, (b) inflation, (c) earnings ,etc., nifty < 4200. The reason nifty did not reach new high though Sensex did is its constituents, as compared to Sensex, some which of 50% of 2008. |
Index points are calculated starting with a base reference and as earnings of companies listed in grows, the index gets bigger. I havnt read abt Nifty but BSE started from 1978 at 100, which means that at 21000, market capitalization of listed companies has grown to 210 times that of 1978.
Keeping economic factors constant for 2008 and 2013, as a domestic investor, I must look whether this new "high" is inflation adjusted for past few years and for a foreign investor, if he finds that valuation in dollar terms for Indian companies is attractive as compared to 2008, then of course he will invest.
You are right(skeptical?) when you say that for a foreign investor, this Indian high of 6200 must be like 4000(touching lows of 2200) of 2008.(62 Rs vs 40 Rs).
I hope he/she/they takes it to dollar adjusted 5000 mark!  |
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vinay28
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Posts: 11748
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| Post: #13 Posted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 9:40 pm Post subject: |
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| himanshu733 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | himanshu733 wrote: | NS in points terms is reaching all time high, but you have to take into consideration price discounting factor for last 5 years to determine exact high levels.
Take total market capitalization in 2008, compare it to market capitalization of 2013(discount it for 5 years, taking risk free rate for India as 8%). You will get current highs of 6300 as equivalent to that of 5700 in 2008(Still 600 points off of the real high for year 2008) |
that way, if you take it (a) in real dollar terms, (b) inflation, (c) earnings ,etc., nifty < 4200. The reason nifty did not reach new high though Sensex did is its constituents, as compared to Sensex, some which of 50% of 2008. |
Index points are calculated starting with a base reference and as earnings of companies listed in grows, the index gets bigger. I havnt read abt Nifty but BSE started from 1978 at 100, which means that at 21000, market capitalization of listed companies has grown to 210 times that of 1978.
Keeping economic factors constant for 2008 and 2013, as a domestic investor, I must look whether this new "high" is inflation adjusted for past few years and for a foreign investor, if he finds that valuation in dollar terms for Indian companies is attractive as compared to 2008, then of course he will invest.
You are right(skeptical?) when you say that for a foreign investor, this Indian high of 6200 must be like 4000(touching lows of 2200) of 2008.(62 Rs vs 40 Rs).
I hope he/she/they takes it to dollar adjusted 5000 mark! |
To begin with, it hasn't got adjusted for earnings at all. |
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himanshu733
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Joined: 21 Jul 2013
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| Post: #14 Posted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 9:56 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | himanshu733 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | himanshu733 wrote: | NS in points terms is reaching all time high, but you have to take into consideration price discounting factor for last 5 years to determine exact high levels.
Take total market capitalization in 2008, compare it to market capitalization of 2013(discount it for 5 years, taking risk free rate for India as 8%). You will get current highs of 6300 as equivalent to that of 5700 in 2008(Still 600 points off of the real high for year 2008) |
that way, if you take it (a) in real dollar terms, (b) inflation, (c) earnings ,etc., nifty < 4200. The reason nifty did not reach new high though Sensex did is its constituents, as compared to Sensex, some which of 50% of 2008. |
Index points are calculated starting with a base reference and as earnings of companies listed in grows, the index gets bigger. I havnt read abt Nifty but BSE started from 1978 at 100, which means that at 21000, market capitalization of listed companies has grown to 210 times that of 1978.
Keeping economic factors constant for 2008 and 2013, as a domestic investor, I must look whether this new "high" is inflation adjusted for past few years and for a foreign investor, if he finds that valuation in dollar terms for Indian companies is attractive as compared to 2008, then of course he will invest.
You are right(skeptical?) when you say that for a foreign investor, this Indian high of 6200 must be like 4000(touching lows of 2200) of 2008.(62 Rs vs 40 Rs).
I hope he/she/they takes it to dollar adjusted 5000 mark! |
To begin with, it hasn't got adjusted for earnings at all. |
I am not sure I fully understood your point of view.
What I basically meant to say was that earnings of companies are reflected in share prices which translates into market capitalization which then leads to increase in "uptick" points of the indices which have these companies listed on them.(e.g 1 uptick point in S&P 500 requires 3 bn USD)
Of course they will continue to grow(at least in size), even if they r price adjusted,they have to provide some real returns (Nominal Returns-Inflation) to their investors and hence in theory they should continue to grow indefinitely. That is why they keep kicking out bad performers in terms of Volumes, earnings etc.
I am not aware of any index in world that is price adjusted.(if by earning adjustment, you meant price/inflation adjustment). If there are, inflation indexed government bonds will be much better deal than investing in price adjusted markets. |
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himanshu733
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Joined: 21 Jul 2013
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| Post: #15 Posted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 10:01 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | himanshu733 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | himanshu733 wrote: | NS in points terms is reaching all time high, but you have to take into consideration price discounting factor for last 5 years to determine exact high levels.
Take total market capitalization in 2008, compare it to market capitalization of 2013(discount it for 5 years, taking risk free rate for India as 8%). You will get current highs of 6300 as equivalent to that of 5700 in 2008(Still 600 points off of the real high for year 2008) |
that way, if you take it (a) in real dollar terms, (b) inflation, (c) earnings ,etc., nifty < 4200. The reason nifty did not reach new high though Sensex did is its constituents, as compared to Sensex, some which of 50% of 2008. |
Index points are calculated starting with a base reference and as earnings of companies listed in grows, the index gets bigger. I havnt read abt Nifty but BSE started from 1978 at 100, which means that at 21000, market capitalization of listed companies has grown to 210 times that of 1978.
Keeping economic factors constant for 2008 and 2013, as a domestic investor, I must look whether this new "high" is inflation adjusted for past few years and for a foreign investor, if he finds that valuation in dollar terms for Indian companies is attractive as compared to 2008, then of course he will invest.
You are right(skeptical?) when you say that for a foreign investor, this Indian high of 6200 must be like 4000(touching lows of 2200) of 2008.(62 Rs vs 40 Rs).
I hope he/she/they takes it to dollar adjusted 5000 mark! |
To begin with, it hasn't got adjusted for earnings at all. |
Please give some insights for November future of Yes Bank  |
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