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Nifty View - November Series |
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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Post: #121  Posted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 12:06 pm Post subject: |
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| dilpat wrote: | Hello vinay sir,
I am still holding 8100 put. should i continue to hold? |
dilpat, I too am holding but as of now lower level seems to be between 8040-8180, higher range being more likely. I am actually expecting 7800 but may be for Dec now. |
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harsh_85
White Belt
Joined: 06 Nov 2011
Posts: 16
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| Post: #122 Posted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 12:27 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay sir, whats ur basis for nifty prediction? EW or technical charts or any other? i am asking for learning purpose only...u said 7800 expecting in dec.... |
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NU2013
White Belt
Joined: 18 Jul 2013
Posts: 104
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| Post: #123 Posted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 12:30 pm Post subject: |
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| NU2013 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | NU2013 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | vix is quietly climbing |
Watching it closely!! 
Do you think we'll get 16 by Friday?? |
the damn thing started falling after I posted.  |
Looks like we'll have to wait till Tuesday!! |
VIX suddenly shot up to 16.71!!  |
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singamvvs
White Belt
Joined: 27 Oct 2011
Posts: 1
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| Post: #124 Posted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 12:39 pm Post subject: india vix 16.84 sir |
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| NU2013 wrote: | | NU2013 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | NU2013 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | vix is quietly climbing |
Watching it closely!!
Do you think we'll get 16 by Friday?? |
the damn thing started falling after I posted. |
Looks like we'll have to wait till Tuesday!! |
VIX suddenly shot up to 16.71!! |
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NU2013
White Belt
Joined: 18 Jul 2013
Posts: 104
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| Post: #125 Posted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 12:58 pm Post subject: |
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| NU2013 wrote: | | NU2013 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | NU2013 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | vix is quietly climbing |
Watching it closely!!
Do you think we'll get 16 by Friday?? |
the damn thing started falling after I posted. |
Looks like we'll have to wait till Tuesday!! |
VIX suddenly shot up to 16.71!! |
Now back to 14.02!!
Vinay bhai, any logic?? |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #126 Posted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 1:34 pm Post subject: |
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| vix shot up to 17.20 and crashed again. but something seems to be going on behind the scene. IMHO, we will have to wait till weekend. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #127 Posted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 2:51 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | vix shot up to 17.20 and crashed again. but something seems to be going on behind the scene. IMHO, we will have to wait till weekend. |
again a spike to 17 and down. tmrw is expiry and hence interesting. |
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NU2013
White Belt
Joined: 18 Jul 2013
Posts: 104
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| Post: #128 Posted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 3:17 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | vix shot up to 17.20 and crashed again. but something seems to be going on behind the scene. IMHO, we will have to wait till weekend. |
again a spike to 17 and down. tmrw is expiry and hence interesting. |
expiry??  |
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PS Trader
White Belt
Joined: 22 Sep 2013
Posts: 101
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| Post: #129 Posted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 7:04 pm Post subject: |
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| NU2013 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | vix shot up to 17.20 and crashed again. but something seems to be going on behind the scene. IMHO, we will have to wait till weekend. |
again a spike to 17 and down. tmrw is expiry and hence interesting. |
expiry?? |
Vix expiry is different from the FNO expiry. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #130 Posted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 9:24 pm Post subject: |
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Nifty for Tuesday (11/11/14)
Supports are at about 8330, 8309, 8296 and 8255 while resistances are at about 8377, 8409 and 8430. An unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8169. A +WW can give 8407 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Five -WWs can give about 8326 (if below 8358), 8279 (if below 8342), 8128 (if below 8369), 8088 and 8025 (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 8265/8230 once below 8309. A channel BO/BD can give 8470/8220.
Nifty closed flattish again but above 8300. Daily candle is a doji. However, it appears overbought and one needs to be cautious with longs. Also, there is a -ve div on daily and weekly TF and it will not go unless rsi crosses 75.08 on daily to begin with. A close below 8169 can cause a fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. |
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Badrek
White Belt
Joined: 09 Jul 2014
Posts: 29
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| Post: #131 Posted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 6:34 am Post subject: |
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Hello Vinay...Following you on all your calls...currently holding Nov 7900PE and will wait for your word to get out...markets are supreme so can expect anything to happen.
Btw you are doing a great job ..day in day out updating your analysis and sharing your knowledge... |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #132 Posted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 8:51 am Post subject: |
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| Badrek wrote: | Hello Vinay...Following you on all your calls...currently holding Nov 7900PE and will wait for your word to get out...markets are supreme so can expect anything to happen.
Btw you are doing a great job ..day in day out updating your analysis and sharing your knowledge... |
tks badrek but you should understand that I take position in OTM options out of my feeling of a likely level and I have often gone wrong e.g. right now I am in loss but luckily I don't trade big volumes and I am long in scrips as a hedge.
as of now, 8435NS is SL for longs. Also, since nifty is flattish for last few days, 13/11 TCD can mean a big upswing also. |
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PS Trader
White Belt
Joined: 22 Sep 2013
Posts: 101
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| Post: #133 Posted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 8:54 am Post subject: |
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| Badrek wrote: | Hello Vinay...Following you on all your calls...currently holding Nov 7900PE and will wait for your word to get out...markets are supreme so can expect anything to happen.
Btw you are doing a great job ..day in day out updating your analysis and sharing your knowledge... |
Buying OTM (out of the money) options is very highly riskly. It is advisable to hold them
1. upto only your timeframe permits (for example, if your strategy for entering that trade was in 30 mins time frame, then holding only for next 6 to 8 30 min session is recommended, same for 1 hr or 4 hr entries in which you can hold only 6 to 8 session)
2. Even longer than recommended in point 1 above, in case if you are rolling in handsome in profits.
Apart from these two cases, if you are just holding them in the hope of gains and holding in loss, that is certainly a path to disaster. Day by day will loose its value and you will end up whole risked capital you put on that trade.
In your case, i see the 7900 PE is far OTM options and it is lossing value day by day. This is wrong. Close that immediately. |
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pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #134 Posted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 9:39 am Post subject: Timely advice! |
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I wish I could have got advice from people like Vinay and PS Trader when I lost quite a sum of money, in 2010-11, listening to tips from my then broker (who got commission for persuading clients to trade more), and equally foolishly holding on to Nifty options even after they had gone more than 10% below PP! Quite a few expired worthless as I dreaded selling at huge loss when they had some value only to see even that erode day by day, to 0 on day of expiry! Prakash Holla
The joke is that, even in 2010-11, I was quite good at identifying single scrips and making profits from them and stupidly listened to my broker saying that I could mint even more from FNO!!! |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #135 Posted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 9:51 am Post subject: |
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| sorry badrek, SL is 8435/50NF and not NS. |
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