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Nifty View - November Series |
pkholla
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Joined: 04 Nov 2010
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Post: #241  Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2014 10:41 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | I too exited. but now intend to short after watching till 1 pm |
Vinay: You have been shorting NF since 8100 (?) but I beg you to be careful!
Did you read y'days Eco Times: Sudeshna Sen: Letter from UK?
She bluntly says fund managers have no other option but to enter India, South Africa if they want to see any return/ XMas bonus!
US: economy OK but near 0 TBill interest rate, shares historic high, VERY HIGH level of derivatives
UK: nearing another recession
W Europe: deflation (like Japan)
Japan: not out of deflation
Russia: who has guts to enter with madman Putin in charge
China: economy on rapidly sliding spiral
Brazil: Madam is a poor manager of the economy
Australia: depends heavily on China
Gold: Being hammered to force people to shift to equity
Kaun baki hai? India, South Africa
We are not seeing FIIs removing funds any time soon but they will instead bring in more for foreseeable future!
Last edited by pkholla on Fri Nov 21, 2014 10:59 am; edited 1 time in total |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #242 Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2014 10:48 am Post subject: |
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| no Prakash, not from 8100. also (a) there is SL and (b) against a positional trade, I do take intraday or 2 day hedge sometimes. In addition, as I have posted, I have a big long hedge in stocks. |
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pkholla
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| Post: #243 Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2014 10:55 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | no Prakash, not from 8100. also (a) there is SL and (b) against a positional trade, I do take intraday or 2 day hedge sometimes. In addition, as I have posted, I have a big long hedge in stocks. |
Very wise, my dear Sir!
I was also watching daily candles of NF. Comfortably above 20 and 50 ema lines. MACD and ADX are ambiguous right now. Volumes around the same since 01 Aug 2014. RSI flat around 70 since 1 Nov.
We should heed Al Brooks: always have (at least) 2 good reasons to enter a trade. Correct me if I am wrong BUT I DONT see even 1 reason right now to short NF!!!
Prakash Holla |
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vinay28
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| Post: #244 Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2014 11:09 am Post subject: |
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| that's why I said I will watch till afternoon, prakash |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #245 Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2014 11:12 am Post subject: |
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Bank nifty is making nifty fly. Crosses 18000. Come on 18300 in one day. Just like sbin did, or am I asking too much  |
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vinay28
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| Post: #246 Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2014 11:36 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | Bank nifty is making nifty fly. Crosses 18000. Come on 18300 in one day. Just like sbin did, or am I asking too much |
as per chart posted yesterday, it's a BO above 8460. let's first see whether NF goes much more than 90 above low i.e. 8502. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #247 Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2014 12:01 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | dilpat wrote: | Vinay sir,
covered shorts @8374... was it right or would have hold till SL? |
dilpat, I think it was correct. you can now short again only below 8348NS or at 8490/8500NF, which, with luck, may come tmrw. |
8499.90NF today itself. 
but one should wait till afternoon to decide next trade. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #248 Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2014 12:10 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | Nifty crossed below channel bottom before recovering and could be a false break down. Buy on dip (Green) and sell on rise (Red) zones marked. Break out if sustains above about 8459 and break down if sustains below about 8320. |
BO happened above 8459NS but as I posted earlier 8500NF seems max ......... as yet. Now buy on dips between 8432/15 ...... if it comes there. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #249 Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2014 12:22 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | Found a few following given calculations in an excel file I keep
1. posted a few times earlier that target of a IHnS is 8345
2. not posted before but based on levels in sept/oct '05 - 8532 and then 7374/7070 (remember pre-election gap is at 7014)
3. posted earlier based on astronomical (not astrological) aspects between 13 and 26 July - likely higher/lower levels of 8625/7056
4. not posted earlier - 8573 based on some level of 7630, don't remember significance of 7630. |
looks like 8532 will come. then there is 8759 from Prakash's Miner level. but one step at a time. let it make higher high first. |
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pkholla
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| Post: #250 Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2014 1:05 pm Post subject: Check NF at 1 PM |
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Vinay: Better wait for few minutes more for clues as to direction of NF. Because:
a Poor volumes
b MACD showing no interest at all, near 0
c ADX/DM+/DM- are together huddled around 25 showing lack of clear trend
d RSI steady at 50, no man's land?
e Al Brooks cautions us not to trade when the 5 min TF candles look like barb wire which is what they are looking like right now! |
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vinay28
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| Post: #251 Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2014 2:13 pm Post subject: Re: Check NF at 1 PM |
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| pkholla wrote: | Vinay: Better wait for few minutes more for clues as to direction of NF. Because:
a Poor volumes
b MACD showing no interest at all, near 0
c ADX/DM+/DM- are together huddled around 25 showing lack of clear trend
d RSI steady at 50, no man's land?
e Al Brooks cautions us not to trade when the 5 min TF candles look like barb wire which is what they are looking like right now! |
Prakash, as posted earlier, ideally it's a buy between 8432/15. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #252 Posted: Sat Nov 22, 2014 8:04 pm Post subject: |
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Gann gave a lot of importance to Mars, whom he refers as the "key" to market moves in short term. Historically, it has been found that market makes a bottom just before Mars moves into Sagittarius. It again gives a dip, sometimes even near to its previous low, after entering Capricorn.
Nifty made a low on 17/10, a day before Mars entered Sagittarius. Mars enters Capricorn next week on 27/11. If this phenomenon were to repeat, we could see a top by 26/11 and then a fall in Dec. (BTW, Mars enters Aquarius on 4/1 next year) The chart shows the likely lower level, as given by TLs and Fibo, to be between 7900-7700. |
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amitagg
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| Post: #253 Posted: Sun Nov 23, 2014 12:03 am Post subject: |
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very nice astro prediction never done before ......
also 6340-2250=4090+4538=8628
Gann from 8380 is 8563 & 8746 and middle is around 8650......
(gann full circle is coming at 8792 from 4532 region.....)
euphoria building......
shekar mentioned 8700 based on his EW
Nov shorts to be trampled.
8600-8800 is the halt and eyeing are big players greedy shorts......
don't fall how much it can fall, since markets have taken projections away, but difficult to visualize the rise beyond.....
depends on time horizon for trading etc......
on most occasions Jan is the peak......
so would Dec / Jan / Feb only will precipitate the fall???
(dow mimicking has a year or two to wait since we are much behind)
as Rahul says for crude, higher it goes, severe it shall fall!!!!
(above figures can be wrong, just quick mental exercise done)
capture the 200SMA, time it hits it |
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vinay28
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| Post: #254 Posted: Sun Nov 23, 2014 12:20 pm Post subject: |
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tks amit. without a proper clue as yet i.e. till next reaction starts, it is better to go by Miner's levels of 8759.50 and 7776.60.
BTW, I feel if 8528-47 is a zone to watch and 8550 is taken out, we could as well see 9000 in Dec. BUT let's first see what happens after 27/11 till 7/12 since Jupiter goes retrograde on 8/12. |
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vinay28
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Posts: 11748
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| Post: #255 Posted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:27 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | tks amit. without a proper clue as yet i.e. till next reaction starts, it is better to go by Miner's levels of 8759.50 and 7776.60.
BTW, I feel if 8528-47 is a zone to watch and 8550 is taken out, we could as well see 9000 in Dec. BUT let's first see what happens after 27/11 till 7/12 since Jupiter goes retrograde on 8/12. |
I feel nifty has topped out, at least for today. Let's wait till 12 noon. |
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