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Nifty View - November Series |
mdsaravana White Belt
Joined: 07 Feb 2014 Posts: 19
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Post: #286 Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:41 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: | mdsaravana wrote: | Dear vinay i heard about sebi taken some steps against p-note investments through derivatives is this true |
yes but as of now it's very mild. Banning P notes will take a lot of courage. also a lot of black money has already come into India via P notes in 2014. |
Thanks vinay |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #287 Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:44 pm Post subject: |
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mdsaravana wrote: | vinay28 wrote: | mdsaravana wrote: | Dear vinay i heard about sebi taken some steps against p-note investments through derivatives is this true |
yes but as of now it's very mild. Banning P notes will take a lot of courage. also a lot of black money has already come into India via P notes in 2014. |
Thanks vinay |
today market is also nervous due to hangama in winter session of parliament. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #288 Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:46 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: | NU2013 wrote: | apka wrote: | last 3 days nifty rose 100 points on account of short covering which led to shedding of about 40 lakh shares.
today about 10 lakh shares have shed OI, so today must be long covering... so far. |
Hi apka,
So, where do you think we are headed??
VIX has not moved anywhere and doesn't seem to be going anywhere? |
NU2013, with vix low and pcr shooting to 1.25, first time since 2013, we should see a 100-150 point fall but not necessarily immediately. |
yes but don't forget that their bonus depending upon monthly close as compared to their medium term position i.e. long or short. so there should be big fight next month among them. |
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mdsaravana White Belt
Joined: 07 Feb 2014 Posts: 19
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Post: #289 Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:53 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: | mdsaravana wrote: | vinay28 wrote: | mdsaravana wrote: | Dear vinay i heard about sebi taken some steps against p-note investments through derivatives is this true |
yes but as of now it's very mild. Banning P notes will take a lot of courage. also a lot of black money has already come into India via P notes in 2014. |
Thanks vinay |
today market is also nervous due to hangama in winter session of parliament. |
yes vinay, And also my view is if fii's restricted to take derivative positions then they will affect hedging against cash market investments, am i right? |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #290 Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:59 pm Post subject: |
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mdsaravana wrote: | yes vinay, And also my view is if fii's restricted to take derivative positions then they will affect hedging against cash market investments, am i right? |
yes, true but huge hedging with P notes has happened already. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #291 Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:04 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: | Target of first -ww met. |
Targets of second and third -WWs also met. |
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PYRAMID White Belt
Joined: 08 Oct 2012 Posts: 27
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Post: #292 Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:17 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: | vinay28 wrote: | Target of first -ww met. |
Targets of second and third -WWs also met. |
Vinay 8450 and 8440, more pressure in coming |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #293 Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:26 pm Post subject: |
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PYRAMID wrote: | vinay28 wrote: | vinay28 wrote: | Target of first -ww met. |
Targets of second and third -WWs also met. |
Vinay 8450 and 8440, more pressure in coming |
yes but S4 level is 8424NF so that or at the most 8410 seems best today. |
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PYRAMID White Belt
Joined: 08 Oct 2012 Posts: 27
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Post: #294 Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:31 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: | PYRAMID wrote: | vinay28 wrote: | vinay28 wrote: | Target of first -ww met. |
Targets of second and third -WWs also met. |
Vinay 8450 and 8440, more pressure in coming |
yes but S4 level is 8424NF so that or at the most 8410 seems best today. |
View for 2morrow |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #295 Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:36 pm Post subject: |
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PYRAMID wrote: | View for 2morrow |
as posted earlier, I feel nifty will fluctuate till expiry. If it goes up and sustains above 8448NS, a number of +WWs can give upto 8540. hence I covered my shorts having met my intraday target, not sure of how much more it will fall. I will now short only at higher levels. Meanwhile, let's see what happens after 3pm. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #296 Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:12 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: | PYRAMID wrote: | View for 2morrow |
as posted earlier, I feel nifty will fluctuate till expiry. If it goes up and sustains above 8448NS, a number of +WWs can give upto 8540. hence I covered my shorts having met my intraday target, not sure of how much more it will fall. I will now short only at higher levels. Meanwhile, let's see what happens after 3pm. |
as expected recovery has begun. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #297 Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:14 pm Post subject: |
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This is just an experiment I have done by joining adjacent (or alternate is more correct) high/low pivots on 60tf. As per this, first break down level is about 8415NS. For whatever it is worth. |
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riteshucha Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012 Posts: 1292
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Post: #298 Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:59 pm Post subject: |
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vinay, what do u make of the fall looking today's nifty volume?? very high compared to previous 3/4 trading sessions...
looks like this fall might continue till expiry... |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #299 Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 5:05 pm Post subject: |
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riteshucha wrote: | vinay, what do u make of the fall looking today's nifty volume?? very high compared to previous 3/4 trading sessions...
looks like this fall might continue till expiry... |
possible ritesh. But as of now, I feel two possibilities (a) if gap down open tmrw 8400/8380 may be max below and then recovery or (b) if gap up open tmrw then 8505/25 may be max and then fall again. This is because I still feel expiry will be 8500 plus/minus 25.
As posted earlier I am expecting more fall from/after 27/11. but God only knows what |
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apka Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137
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Post: #300 Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 5:08 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: | riteshucha wrote: | vinay, what do u make of the fall looking today's nifty volume?? very high compared to previous 3/4 trading sessions...
looks like this fall might continue till expiry... |
possible ritesh. But as of now, I feel two possibilities (a) if gap down open tmrw 8400/8380 may be max below and then recovery or (b) if gap up open tmrw then 8505/25 may be max and then fall again. This is because I still feel expiry will be 8500 plus/minus 25.
As posted earlier I am expecting more fall from/after 27/11. but God only knows what |
Exactly what I am expecting too now seeing today's long covering. |
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