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Nifty View - November Series
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Author Nifty View - November Series
mdsaravana
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Joined: 07 Feb 2014
Posts: 19

Post: #286   PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
mdsaravana wrote:
Dear vinay i heard about sebi taken some steps against p-note investments through derivatives is this true


yes but as of now it's very mild. Banning P notes will take a lot of courage. also a lot of black money has already come into India via P notes in 2014.

Thanks vinay
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #287   PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mdsaravana wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
mdsaravana wrote:
Dear vinay i heard about sebi taken some steps against p-note investments through derivatives is this true


yes but as of now it's very mild. Banning P notes will take a lot of courage. also a lot of black money has already come into India via P notes in 2014.

Thanks vinay


today market is also nervous due to hangama in winter session of parliament.
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #288   PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
NU2013 wrote:
apka wrote:
last 3 days nifty rose 100 points on account of short covering which led to shedding of about 40 lakh shares.

today about 10 lakh shares have shed OI, so today must be long covering... so far.


Hi apka,

So, where do you think we are headed??

VIX has not moved anywhere and doesn't seem to be going anywhere?


NU2013, with vix low and pcr shooting to 1.25, first time since 2013, we should see a 100-150 point fall but not necessarily immediately.


yes but don't forget that their bonus depending upon monthly close as compared to their medium term position i.e. long or short. so there should be big fight next month among them.
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mdsaravana
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Joined: 07 Feb 2014
Posts: 19

Post: #289   PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
mdsaravana wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
mdsaravana wrote:
Dear vinay i heard about sebi taken some steps against p-note investments through derivatives is this true


yes but as of now it's very mild. Banning P notes will take a lot of courage. also a lot of black money has already come into India via P notes in 2014.

Thanks vinay


today market is also nervous due to hangama in winter session of parliament.


yes vinay, And also my view is if fii's restricted to take derivative positions then they will affect hedging against cash market investments, am i right?
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vinay28
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Post: #290   PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mdsaravana wrote:
yes vinay, And also my view is if fii's restricted to take derivative positions then they will affect hedging against cash market investments, am i right?


yes, true but huge hedging with P notes has happened already.
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vinay28
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Post: #291   PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
Target of first -ww met.


Targets of second and third -WWs also met.
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PYRAMID
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Joined: 08 Oct 2012
Posts: 27

Post: #292   PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
Target of first -ww met.


Targets of second and third -WWs also met.


Vinay 8450 and 8440, more pressure in coming
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vinay28
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Post: #293   PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PYRAMID wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
Target of first -ww met.


Targets of second and third -WWs also met.


Vinay 8450 and 8440, more pressure in coming


yes but S4 level is 8424NF so that or at the most 8410 seems best today.
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PYRAMID
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Joined: 08 Oct 2012
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Post: #294   PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
PYRAMID wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
Target of first -ww met.


Targets of second and third -WWs also met.


Vinay 8450 and 8440, more pressure in coming


yes but S4 level is 8424NF so that or at the most 8410 seems best today.


View for 2morrow
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vinay28
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Post: #295   PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PYRAMID wrote:
View for 2morrow


as posted earlier, I feel nifty will fluctuate till expiry. If it goes up and sustains above 8448NS, a number of +WWs can give upto 8540. hence I covered my shorts having met my intraday target, not sure of how much more it will fall. I will now short only at higher levels. Meanwhile, let's see what happens after 3pm.
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #296   PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
PYRAMID wrote:
View for 2morrow


as posted earlier, I feel nifty will fluctuate till expiry. If it goes up and sustains above 8448NS, a number of +WWs can give upto 8540. hence I covered my shorts having met my intraday target, not sure of how much more it will fall. I will now short only at higher levels. Meanwhile, let's see what happens after 3pm.


as expected recovery has begun.
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vinay28
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Post: #297   PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just an experiment I have done by joining adjacent (or alternate is more correct) high/low pivots on 60tf. As per this, first break down level is about 8415NS. For whatever it is worth. Smile
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riteshucha
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Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292

Post: #298   PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay, what do u make of the fall looking today's nifty volume?? very high compared to previous 3/4 trading sessions...

looks like this fall might continue till expiry...
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vinay28
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Post: #299   PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 5:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

riteshucha wrote:
vinay, what do u make of the fall looking today's nifty volume?? very high compared to previous 3/4 trading sessions...

looks like this fall might continue till expiry...


possible ritesh. But as of now, I feel two possibilities (a) if gap down open tmrw 8400/8380 may be max below and then recovery or (b) if gap up open tmrw then 8505/25 may be max and then fall again. This is because I still feel expiry will be 8500 plus/minus 25.

As posted earlier I am expecting more fall from/after 27/11. but God only knows what
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
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Post: #300   PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 5:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
riteshucha wrote:
vinay, what do u make of the fall looking today's nifty volume?? very high compared to previous 3/4 trading sessions...

looks like this fall might continue till expiry...


possible ritesh. But as of now, I feel two possibilities (a) if gap down open tmrw 8400/8380 may be max below and then recovery or (b) if gap up open tmrw then 8505/25 may be max and then fall again. This is because I still feel expiry will be 8500 plus/minus 25.

As posted earlier I am expecting more fall from/after 27/11. but God only knows what


Exactly what I am expecting too now seeing today's long covering.
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