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Nifty View - November Series |
riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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Post: #31  Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 3:33 pm Post subject: |
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what happened to the big bad wolf, tgting 7200.. has it been negated...
vinay, its tatoo time again, 10% fall in 3 weeks and i ll add "baba ki jai" after vinay... 
| vinay28 wrote: | | will Nov 2010 repeat with a 10% fall in 3 weeks? |
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mdsaravana
White Belt
Joined: 07 Feb 2014
Posts: 19
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| Post: #32 Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 6:40 pm Post subject: |
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| fii's add more than 3lk contract long today in index fut, total 639632 contracts long just 82255 contracs short in index, i never seen this recent past, what this means vinay? |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #33 Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:24 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | kaydee11 wrote: | Everyone is talking of correction
But why
8370 is coming, if doesnt fall below 8300 |
good one and well said....i personally totallyu agree seeing intra day price action....just people like me have started entering shorts earlier....so wish it to come down......it is not and it will not now....and it shall take few days to come down......and give 100 -150 point upsides ie (spikes) before coming down!!!!......i mentioned in early today that we shall see further rise today till end.... |
So as traders reading the price line we know what the price is telling ...... But greed take over ... And we want to catch the supposed tops.... Resulting into early entries. What is important is still scale of the entry and proper money management. Can see how the hih was done last as predicted earlier I the day.... What is analysed we may still falter as traders in proper execution ( otherwise everyone would be able to catch the top and bottom) |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #34 Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:27 pm Post subject: |
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| riteshucha wrote: | what happened to the big bad wolf, tgting 7200.. has it been negated...
vinay, its tatoo time again, 10% fall in 3 weeks and i ll add "baba ki jai" after vinay...
| vinay28 wrote: | | will Nov 2010 repeat with a 10% fall in 3 weeks? |
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I for one is easily convinced 7500/7200 shall be hit by March... If not by dec as i was expecting.... It can very we'll be. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #35 Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:03 pm Post subject: |
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| riteshucha wrote: | what happened to the big bad wolf, tgting 7200.. has it been negated...
vinay, its tatoo time again, 10% fall in 3 weeks and i ll add "baba ki jai" after vinay...
| vinay28 wrote: | | will Nov 2010 repeat with a 10% fall in 3 weeks? |
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ritesh, that -ww is only below 7970 as of now.
a few days ago amit complimented me for my price and time analysis and I had replied that I go horribly wrong in time. I felt 8275/8400 would come in Dec after a reaction but first target came today itself and 8400 may come even next week. That's market. That's why I had bought 9000ce for dec., just in case but sold them early thinking market may react from today.
But with sharp rise and euphoria in last 9 days, I am wondering whether situation will be same as Nov '10, which is not different now i.e. in terms of anticipation of govt moves. Already fiscal deficit hit roof today, a bad omen for FIIs. Astrologically, I expect major change from 2/11. For a longer term view which only sensex can give, about 28000/28500 may not be exceeded this year, which is very close. Alternately and not equivalent, about 8416 seems max to me now.
Having said this, if 8080NF posted today as likely bottom is going to be true then Dec will see at least 8500/8600. In that case we are on way to 9000++ by feb after which a serious fall (30%) could come till august before start of a long term bull market. Otherwise the fall will start very soon and we may see at least 10% down from whatever top e.g. 8416/28500, as it happened in Nov '10.
Saravana - yes FIIs' long contracts are stunning. Brazil's bad election results brought in 10% of their allocation to EMs, particularly India and today's measure by Japanese central banks brought more money from Japan, who are well known for buying at highest levels. But coming back to FIIs' long contract position, other side of coin is that it means we can only see long covering and not short covering.
Time is the only answer and cure.  |
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harsh_85
White Belt
Joined: 06 Nov 2011
Posts: 16
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| Post: #36 Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:58 pm Post subject: |
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Sirji two things i would i like to point:
1) Contract size has been halved from today so thats why more no. of contracts are seen...
2) Vijay Bhambwani (commodity expert) gave an interesting pointer....4th November is midterm election time in US and before that he says that riskier assets(stocks) are prepped up by the government (reason i forgot,sorry) and commodity prices are lowered for may be feel good factor...these kind of things happen whenever the midterm elections happen during the 2nd tenure of the president...so he also was cautioning about going long aggressively...it just concurs with u guys' views so just thought that i would let u know...
Thanks |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #37 Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 11:17 pm Post subject: |
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| harsh_85 wrote: | Sirji two things i would i like to point:
1) Contract size has been halved from today so thats why more no. of contracts are seen...
2) Vijay Bhambwani (commodity expert) gave an interesting pointer....4th November is midterm election time in US and before that he says that riskier assets(stocks) are prepped up by the government (reason i forgot,sorry) and commodity prices are lowered for may be feel good factor...these kind of things happen whenever the midterm elections happen during the 2nd tenure of the president...so he also was cautioning about going long aggressively...it just concurs with u guys' views so just thought that i would let u know...
Thanks |
And that was what I read few days before wrt to an EW analyst who all are cautioning of the rise...... This election and nov 27 crude meeting may be relevant but the rally seems to be in for BOJ stimulus which I mentioned first in the session today |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #38 Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 11:18 pm Post subject: |
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| harsh_85 wrote: | Sirji two things i would i like to point:
1) Contract size has been halved from today so thats why more no. of contracts are seen...
2) Vijay Bhambwani (commodity expert) gave an interesting pointer....4th November is midterm election time in US and before that he says that riskier assets(stocks) are prepped up by the government (reason i forgot,sorry) and commodity prices are lowered for may be feel good factor...these kind of things happen whenever the midterm elections happen during the 2nd tenure of the president...so he also was cautioning about going long aggressively...it just concurs with u guys' views so just thought that i would let u know...
Thanks |
Contracts are actually one order, not the number of lots. Today OI has crossed 200 lakhs after many months, so actually there has been more active participation. |
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kaydee11
White Belt
Joined: 29 Jan 2014
Posts: 79
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| Post: #39 Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 11:39 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | But with sharp rise and euphoria in last 9 days, I am wondering whether situation will be same as Nov '10, which is not different now i.e. in terms of anticipation of govt moves. Already fiscal deficit hit roof today, a bad omen for FIIs. Astrologically, I expect major change from 2/11. For a longer term view which only sensex can give, about 28000/28500 may not be exceeded this year, which is very close. Alternately and not equivalent, about 8416 seems max to me now.
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You mean because a major planet (slow moving with rings) changes its sign on 2/11 and will start showing its impact the moment it enters a new sign and so market will tank.
 |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #40 Posted: Sat Nov 01, 2014 12:19 am Post subject: |
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| kaydee11 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | But with sharp rise and euphoria in last 9 days, I am wondering whether situation will be same as Nov '10, which is not different now i.e. in terms of anticipation of govt moves. Already fiscal deficit hit roof today, a bad omen for FIIs. Astrologically, I expect major change from 2/11. For a longer term view which only sensex can give, about 28000/28500 may not be exceeded this year, which is very close. Alternately and not equivalent, about 8416 seems max to me now.
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You mean because a major planet (slow moving with rings) changes its sign on 2/11 and will start showing its impact the moment it enters a new sign and so market will tank.
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That's a little disrespectful. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #41 Posted: Sat Nov 01, 2014 8:24 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | kaydee11 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | But with sharp rise and euphoria in last 9 days, I am wondering whether situation will be same as Nov '10, which is not different now i.e. in terms of anticipation of govt moves. Already fiscal deficit hit roof today, a bad omen for FIIs. Astrologically, I expect major change from 2/11. For a longer term view which only sensex can give, about 28000/28500 may not be exceeded this year, which is very close. Alternately and not equivalent, about 8416 seems max to me now.
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You mean because a major planet (slow moving with rings) changes its sign on 2/11 and will start showing its impact the moment it enters a new sign and so market will tank.
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That's a little disrespectful. |
yes  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #42 Posted: Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:03 am Post subject: |
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| Nifty likely limit? on daily basis, it comes to less than 8400 for Monday. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #43 Posted: Sat Nov 01, 2014 1:47 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | kaydee11 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | But with sharp rise and euphoria in last 9 days, I am wondering whether situation will be same as Nov '10, which is not different now i.e. in terms of anticipation of govt moves. Already fiscal deficit hit roof today, a bad omen for FIIs. Astrologically, I expect major change from 2/11. For a longer term view which only sensex can give, about 28000/28500 may not be exceeded this year, which is very close. Alternately and not equivalent, about 8416 seems max to me now.
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You mean because a major planet (slow moving with rings) changes its sign on 2/11 and will start showing its impact the moment it enters a new sign and so market will tank.
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That's a little disrespectful. |
yes |
Kaydee11 - while we must always be righteous and unbiased and always forthcoming in asking and knowing and seeking clarifications.... This is a part of learning exercise and allow us to trade impartially as well, we must recognise that we are only small drops in the ocean of knowledge ..... And that is why we are not up to thre mark of even understanding the "topic" or " subject" leave alone entering class 1 or then graduating or then doin PHD etc etc.....
Regards |
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kaydee11
White Belt
Joined: 29 Jan 2014
Posts: 79
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| Post: #44 Posted: Sat Nov 01, 2014 7:41 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | kaydee11 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | But with sharp rise and euphoria in last 9 days, I am wondering whether situation will be same as Nov '10, which is not different now i.e. in terms of anticipation of govt moves. Already fiscal deficit hit roof today, a bad omen for FIIs. Astrologically, I expect major change from 2/11. For a longer term view which only sensex can give, about 28000/28500 may not be exceeded this year, which is very close. Alternately and not equivalent, about 8416 seems max to me now.
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You mean because a major planet (slow moving with rings) changes its sign on 2/11 and will start showing its impact the moment it enters a new sign and so market will tank.
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That's a little disrespectful. |
Only a little
Sorry to say so
But I can not show more than this here.
I can not respect a member who can abuse and disrespect fellow member in a open forum. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #45 Posted: Sat Nov 01, 2014 8:35 pm Post subject: |
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| kaydee11 wrote: | ....Only a little
Sorry to say so
But I can not show more than this here.
I can not respect a member who can abuse and disrespect fellow member in a open forum. |
now who has done that? me? |
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