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Nifty View - November Series |
vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #301  Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:03 pm Post subject: |
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Rumour Alert : Unregistered FII positions may include names like: unitech / jpasso / adag counter / pfc/ rec/ dlf / ibreal / jppower /gmr. Insiders expect heavy offloading in these stocks. All these stocks can hit lower circuit before expiry. There is also news that few F&O counters will be removed after this expiry. Exit longs and avoid leverage in F&O.
Caution - This can also be trap by those large traders who are trapped today. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #302 Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:23 pm Post subject: |
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Nifty for Wednesday (26/11/14)
Supports are at about 8436, 8416, 8282 and 8370 while resistances are at about 8476, 8523/31 and 8582. Four +WWs can give about 8486 (if above 8429), 8497 (if above 8445), 8520 (once above 8475) and 8547 (if above 8463) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 8402 (if below 8472) and 8362 (once below 8433) (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A channel BO/BD can give 8580/8340.
Nifty fell sharply but closed above 8450. The -ve div on daily and weekly TF over longer term still persists. A close below 8425 will invite bears. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
Last edited by vinay28 on Wed Nov 26, 2014 9:14 am; edited 1 time in total |
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PS Trader
White Belt
Joined: 22 Sep 2013
Posts: 101
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| Post: #303 Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:45 pm Post subject: |
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| can someone tell the reason behind todays big 5 figure numbers in FII activity data? |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #304 Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2014 9:24 am Post subject: |
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| Yesterday we fell back 100 points and OI reduced to 130 lakhs... so 60 lakh shares shed OI (long covering)... So both long and short covering has been done. Now 2 days remain, no strike has a large OI. This expiry could get interesting. |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #305 Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2014 9:27 am Post subject: |
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oh and bn hit my final trgt 18300 and now has fallen 400 points within 2 days  |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #306 Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2014 2:07 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | riteshucha wrote: | vinay, what do u make of the fall looking today's nifty volume?? very high compared to previous 3/4 trading sessions...
looks like this fall might continue till expiry... |
possible ritesh. But as of now, I feel two possibilities (a) if gap down open tmrw 8400/8380 may be max below and then recovery or (b) if gap up open tmrw then 8505/25 may be max and then fall again. This is because I still feel expiry will be 8500 plus/minus 25.
As posted earlier I am expecting more fall from/after 27/11. but God only knows what |
8500 to ho gaya. |
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riteshucha
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Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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| Post: #307 Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2014 2:11 pm Post subject: |
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yes vinay...
if it doesnt cross 8514 now, new low is expected... bought 4 lots of 8500 pe at 19... will hold till expiry... too hard to resist... even if it crosses, will wait to see if it closes above 8529, if not then expecting expiry below 8450... |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #308 Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2014 2:16 pm Post subject: |
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| riteshucha wrote: | yes vinay...
if it doesnt cross 8514 now, new low is expected... bought 4 lots of 8500 pe at 19... will hold till expiry... too hard to resist... even if it crosses, will wait to see if it closes above 8529, if not then expecting expiry below 8450... |
I intend to short around 8520 or around 2.52-3.07pm. BTW, I feel expiry will be 8500 plus/minus 25 and I have posted 8476 in challenge thread. |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #309 Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2014 2:16 pm Post subject: |
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strange thing...
spot is 8482.... fut is 8500
8500pe is at 24.... 8500ce is at 24
8500pe vix is 9.5... 8500ce vix is at 17
it's going to be fight for 8500 tomorrow, most likely we should be below it. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #310 Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2014 2:22 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | strange thing...
spot is 8482.... fut is 8500
8500pe is at 24.... 8500ce is at 24
8500pe vix is 9.5... 8500ce vix is at 17
it's going to be fight for 8500 tomorrow, most likely we should be below it. |
apka, if NF and strike price is same for both, IV has to be same. Where did you get it? and if it is correct, it means CE has risen faster today due to higher short covering and may get written again for expiry. |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #311 Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2014 2:35 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | strange thing...
spot is 8482.... fut is 8500
8500pe is at 24.... 8500ce is at 24
8500pe vix is 9.5... 8500ce vix is at 17
it's going to be fight for 8500 tomorrow, most likely we should be below it. |
apka, if NF and strike price is same for both, IV has to be same. Where did you get it? and if it is correct, it means CE has risen faster today due to higher short covering and may get written again for expiry. |
I have a "Last Traded VIX change" coloum in my trading software. It shows the VIX calculation for all options as per their LTP. (You can see it in the nse options page also on their website but that will show 15 mins delayed)
Yes, 8500ce has seen short covering. Intraday it had touched 74 lakhs OI and now it is showing 59 lakh something. |
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riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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| Post: #312 Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2014 2:55 pm Post subject: |
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breaking 8463 will be bye bye nifty...
| vinay28 wrote: | | riteshucha wrote: | yes vinay...
if it doesnt cross 8514 now, new low is expected... bought 4 lots of 8500 pe at 19... will hold till expiry... too hard to resist... even if it crosses, will wait to see if it closes above 8529, if not then expecting expiry below 8450... |
I intend to short around 8520 or around 2.52-3.07pm. BTW, I feel expiry will be 8500 plus/minus 25 and I have posted 8476 in challenge thread. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #313 Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2014 3:04 pm Post subject: |
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| no ritesh, that level is 8442. since it reversed before my time, I now intend to go long soon for a higher level tmrw before fall |
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riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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| Post: #314 Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2014 3:18 pm Post subject: |
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okie... but had it been around 8500, i would have been comfortable looking at a longing opportunity, but now, chances are more for a gap down opening tomm...
NF NS will form an IB, very very interesting day tomm... and its black magic day tomm.... 
btw PE doubled and touched 39...
| vinay28 wrote: | | no ritesh, that level is 8442. since it reversed before my time, I now intend to go long soon for a higher level tmrw before fall |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #315 Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2014 3:28 pm Post subject: |
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Bearish div happening on nifty on daily again. tmrw may be last high.
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