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Nifty View - November Series |
kaydee11
White Belt
Joined: 29 Jan 2014
Posts: 79
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Post: #46  Posted: Sat Nov 01, 2014 8:37 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | kaydee11 wrote: | ....Only a little
Sorry to say so
But I can not show more than this here.
I can not respect a member who can abuse and disrespect fellow member in a open forum. |
now who has done that? me? |
Who else can do this in your thread and this forum!!!!  |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #47 Posted: Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:06 pm Post subject: |
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Not sure what you are referring to kaydee11. Several people have their own discussion threads here. All threads, more or less, follow the same unwritten rule of being owned by the thread starter.
So be an adult and be upfront about it. Throwing flames under the cover of some irritation is childish and useless. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #48 Posted: Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:18 pm Post subject: |
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| wow, long time no see. looks like rakesh's genes have resurfaced like ebola with a gender change once again. Or may be they have fallen from japani badal? he, she, it? who cares? |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #49 Posted: Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:33 pm Post subject: |
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Nifty for Monday (03/11/14)
Supports are at about 8283, 8236 and 8141 while resistances are at about 8334, 8370 and 8417. An unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8169. A +WW can give about 8346 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 7832 (once below 8306) and 7608 (once below 8312) (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A rising channel can give at least about 7900 in case of a BD below 8140.
Nifty rose sharply to make an all time high and also close at an all time high once again and is extremely bullish. Daily/weekly/monthly candles are strong. However, there is a hint of overbought situation and one needs to be cautious with longs. Also, there is a strong -ve div on daily and weekly TF and it will not go unless rsi crosses 75.08 on daily to begin with. A close below 8169 can cause a fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. |
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deepakmvr
White Belt
Joined: 21 Oct 2014
Posts: 2
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| Post: #50 Posted: Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:39 pm Post subject: Nifty |
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| Though Predicting top is difficult with raging bulls. Is it Likely Nifty spot will top at 8380 8400 levels ? ? At least for November series. I am Guessing it will top around 8400 according to my study. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #51 Posted: Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:50 am Post subject: Re: Nifty |
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| deepakmvr wrote: | | Though Predicting top is difficult with raging bulls. Is it Likely Nifty spot will top at 8380 8400 levels ? ? At least for November series. I am Guessing it will top around 8400 according to my study. |
while I also feel top is near, pl post your detailed study/basis for everyone to understand.
one important thing is, normally, traders make max money when price is overbought/sold. so predicting top/bottom purely based on overbought/sold situation (as I have posted for Monday) is always difficult. |
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deepakmvr
White Belt
Joined: 21 Oct 2014
Posts: 2
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| Post: #52 Posted: Sun Nov 02, 2014 3:14 pm Post subject: Re: Nifty |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | deepakmvr wrote: | | Though Predicting top is difficult with raging bulls. Is it Likely Nifty spot will top at 8380 8400 levels ? ? At least for November series. I am Guessing it will top around 8400 according to my study. |
while I also feel top is near, pl post your detailed study/basis for everyone to understand.
one important thing is, normally, traders make max money when price is overbought/sold. so predicting top/bottom purely based on overbought/sold situation (as I have posted for Monday) is always difficult. |
Well I have tried to take this year's low as a base for Fibonacci retracement as shown in the chart you can see how the 61.8% and 38.1% retracements acted as good support and resistance according to that it tops around 8380 ,8400 levels .It is bit like thinking ahead of time might go wrong . But I strongly believe it will work Right and nifty spot will top around 8400 . |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #53 Posted: Sun Nov 02, 2014 3:33 pm Post subject: Re: Nifty |
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| deepakmvr wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | deepakmvr wrote: | | Though Predicting top is difficult with raging bulls. Is it Likely Nifty spot will top at 8380 8400 levels ? ? At least for November series. I am Guessing it will top around 8400 according to my study. |
while I also feel top is near, pl post your detailed study/basis for everyone to understand.
one important thing is, normally, traders make max money when price is overbought/sold. so predicting top/bottom purely based on overbought/sold situation (as I have posted for Monday) is always difficult. |
Well I have tried to take this year's low as a base for Fibonacci retracement as shown in the chart you can see how the 61.8% and 38.1% retracements acted as good support and resistance according to that it tops around 8380 ,8400 levels .It is bit like thinking ahead of time might go wrong . But I strongly believe it will work Right and nifty spot will top around 8400 . |
I had already mentioned in my thread on Friday that 8278/8314 would be " gravitating" levels ( a black hole)
5116 multiply 61.8
And gann 50 percent from 5116
Pls note unlike shekar who has taken low from 4531.... I had been taking low from 5116
Also pls note that breakout target from a inverse h and s or the channel break ???? Is also coming to 8900 and it has been mentioned months back by one of the brokerages with chart depiction " months back" |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #54 Posted: Sun Nov 02, 2014 6:03 pm Post subject: |
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| Vinay, I remember you had marked 8342 (63% figure from the low of 5118 last year) as the point to touch before seeing any major correction. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #55 Posted: Sun Nov 02, 2014 6:16 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | Vinay, I remember you had marked 8342 (63% figure from the low of 5118 last year) as the point to touch before seeing any major correction. |
Wow. I had for one considered 7860/7991/ and later 8100 as top ONLY and not beyond that. It is only now I am considering these levels but still sticking my neck out and not considering 8800-8900 before a serious fall... And anticipating a 5th wave failure or truncation around these Monday opening levels....
The truth is I earned some profit shorting 7950-8080 levels as I had been actually mentioning in my thread ( hVing exited at 7860 levels ) so whether top is 8400/8900 ultimately does not make difference to me now
and I am short at dec 8300 levels currently ( again as mentioned in other other thread clearly) based on above prognosis and shall take the average up to 8500. Let's see what happens. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #56 Posted: Sun Nov 02, 2014 6:30 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | Vinay, I remember you had marked 8342 (63% figure from the low of 5118 last year) as the point to touch before seeing any major correction. |
shit, apka, I am going to shoot you because though your memory is better than me, you didn't warn me of this when I went short.
can't even find that post, just to pat myself.  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #57 Posted: Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:22 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | Vinay, I remember you had marked 8342 (63% figure from the low of 5118 last year) as the point to touch before seeing any major correction. |
shit, apka, I am going to shoot you because though your memory is better than me, you didn't warn me of this when I went short.
can't even find that post, just to pat myself. |
Found a few following given calculations in an excel file I keep
1. posted a few times earlier that target of a IHnS is 8345
2. not posted before but based on levels in sept/oct '05 - 8532 and then 7374/7070 (remember pre-election gap is at 7014)
3. posted earlier based on astronomical (not astrological) aspects between 13 and 26 July - likely higher/lower levels of 8625/7056
4. not posted earlier - 8573 based on some level of 7630, don't remember significance of 7630. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #58 Posted: Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:39 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | Vinay, I remember you had marked 8342 (63% figure from the low of 5118 last year) as the point to touch before seeing any major correction. |
shit, apka, I am going to shoot you because though your memory is better than me, you didn't warn me of this when I went short.
can't even find that post, just to pat myself. |
Found a few following given calculations in an excel file I keep
1. posted a few times earlier that target of a IHnS is 8345
2. not posted before but based on levels in sept/oct '05 - 8532 and then 7374/7070 (remember pre-election gap is at 7014)
3. posted earlier based on astronomical (not astrological) aspects between 13 and 26 July - likely higher/lower levels of 8625/7056
4. not posted earlier - 8573 based on some level of 7630, don't remember significance of 7630. |
7630/7670 is 50 percent of the bottom ie 5116?? |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #59 Posted: Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:01 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | Vinay, I remember you had marked 8342 (63% figure from the low of 5118 last year) as the point to touch before seeing any major correction. |
shit, apka, I am going to shoot you because though your memory is better than me, you didn't warn me of this when I went short.
can't even find that post, just to pat myself. |
Found a few following given calculations in an excel file I keep
1. posted a few times earlier that target of a IHnS is 8345
2. not posted before but based on levels in sept/oct '05 - 8532 and then 7374/7070 (remember pre-election gap is at 7014)
3. posted earlier based on astronomical (not astrological) aspects between 13 and 26 July - likely higher/lower levels of 8625/7056
4. not posted earlier - 8573 based on some level of 7630, don't remember significance of 7630. |
7630/7670 is 50 percent of the bottom ie 5116?? |
oh no, now I remember. I am actually expecting about 11% fall, last many such falls being between 10.9 to 11.02%. 11.02 is also a multiple of my favourite no. 7. So I had worked backwards i.e. in order to get 7630 (my feel of lower level), nifty has to go to about 8573. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #60 Posted: Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:03 pm Post subject: |
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Vinay, this is what you wrote on Aug 10:
| apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | On a side note 5 sept 2013 rajan tookover as rbi governor and fresh rally started.. And 13 sept modi was appointed pm candidate.. A year now into bull run, new highs, 22% higher than previous with just 4% correction at most. |
yes but I feel we may see about 63% above previous low (5118) before about 8-10% correction. A correction more than 11% from whatever peak may mean more fall to come. |
63% comes to 8342  |
I didn't say anything because I didn't think you would forget. I thought you just changed your mind.  |
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