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NIFTY VIEW - November |
kingkrunal
White Belt
Joined: 22 Jun 2012
Posts: 498
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Post: #121  Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2012 10:03 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | rakpeds wrote: | | so finally world markets bleeding... any reason guys ? |
i wont call it bleeding...
DAX on weekly chart has formed a flag pattern, ready to move up or down from next week atleast 500 points. and also given a monthly falling channel breakout. |
now can we call it bleeding.. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #122 Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2012 10:11 pm Post subject: |
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| kingkrunal wrote: | | apka wrote: | | rakpeds wrote: | | so finally world markets bleeding... any reason guys ? |
i wont call it bleeding...
DAX on weekly chart has formed a flag pattern, ready to move up or down from next week atleast 500 points. and also given a monthly falling channel breakout. |
now can we call it bleeding.. |
im not shaken. depends on the weekly/friday closing  |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #123 Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2012 10:30 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | kingkrunal wrote: | | apka wrote: | | rakpeds wrote: | | so finally world markets bleeding... any reason guys ? |
i wont call it bleeding...
DAX on weekly chart has formed a flag pattern, ready to move up or down from next week atleast 500 points. and also given a monthly falling channel breakout. |
now can we call it bleeding.. |
im not shaken. depends on the weekly/friday closing |
As a bear, I prefer the dollar index to break above 81.2-81.5 range....but after an initial spike, dollar index is staying around 80.9 levels which is surprising.....that's why I'm skeptical of this down move....It'll be interesting to see the follow ups.....but the bulls must be shaken now....this move is very much like the one had on 3rd August...after Draghi's comments the markets had gone down heavily in the Europe....but the next day, all the losses were covered and even closed above the previous days's high...so, let's see if this move on the downside is genuine or not.....chances of 3rd august repeating looks pretty much difficult now though... |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #124 Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2012 8:07 am Post subject: |
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"not necessarily steve. nifty can react from any level upto 5720NS tmrw and may make a new low upto 5525 or even 5425 after that. The SL for your short should be 5730 for say 15tf close. I feel FIIs may scare bulls and bears alike for a week, gobbling up SLs till 8th nov.
That's why I had posted that gamblers should buy 6000ce for nov and forget about it. Let coming 7 days not perturb you."
This is what I had posted on the night of 1st Nov in "Nifty View". |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #125 Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2012 8:08 am Post subject: |
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| i think. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #126 Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2012 8:14 am Post subject: |
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apka, I feel a bit below 5680 should be the SL.
PCR at 1.11 and VIX at 14.51. It will be interesting to see these values at EOD today. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #127 Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2012 9:53 am Post subject: |
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yes, VIX is negative despite -50 -40
and as premium is still above 30 points, its implying still shorting is not happening. |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #128 Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2012 10:01 am Post subject: |
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| Samji have you covered your puts today morning or still holding? |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #129 Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2012 10:02 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | yes, VIX is negative despite -50 -40
and as premium is still above 30 points, its implying still shorting is not happening. |
As long as we trade above 5640 levels, there wont be any panic.....the situation will still be under control for the bulls...the situation could change only if we start trading below that level, I feel...the VIX and all will start to react from there on....so, we're still some distance away from danger....that's why we're still seeing buying in certain counters....but will this calmness last forever??... For how long will we hold 5640 levels??...only time will tell.... |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #130 Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2012 10:05 am Post subject: |
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| taxmann50 wrote: | | Samji have you covered your puts today morning or still holding? |
No....Taxmann....when I'm taking 100 points or more risks, the reward should be at least 200 point right??....I'm not exiting now....by the way, the market today may have resistance around the range 5743-5753 range....while the support will be there in the range 5790-5775......let's see if any of these levels get broken... |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #131 Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2012 10:14 am Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | taxmann50 wrote: | | Samji have you covered your puts today morning or still holding? |
No....Taxmann....when I'm taking 100 points or more risks, the reward should be at least 200 point right??....I'm not exiting now....by the way, the market today may have resistance around the range 5743-5753 range....while the support will be there in the range 5790-5775......let's see if any of these levels get broken... |
Ok fair enough, I am still holding the NF shorted at average 5692, I am still a little in 2 minds whether to hold or square off now.
What will you suggest? shall i leave these and take new positions in 5700 put or stay where I am? |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #132 Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2012 10:19 am Post subject: |
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| taxmann50 wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | taxmann50 wrote: | | Samji have you covered your puts today morning or still holding? |
No....Taxmann....when I'm taking 100 points or more risks, the reward should be at least 200 point right??....I'm not exiting now....by the way, the market today may have resistance around the range 5743-5753 range....while the support will be there in the range 5790-5775......let's see if any of these levels get broken... |
Ok fair enough, I am still holding the NF shorted at average 5692, I am still a little in 2 minds whether to hold or square off now.
What will you suggest? shall i leave these and take new positions in 5700 put or stay where I am? |
Yesterday, I was a bit nervous holding my SHORTs above 5730 levels, that's why exited SHORTs and bought PUTs........if you're comfortable holding it then its fine...I mean if you have a tight stoploss then its better to hold SHORTs...but if you have a longer stoploss, then I prefer PUTs..cos, it will give you flexibility and also "peace of mind".....  ....anyway, its personal...you can decide as per your mindset....think about the loss you'll have if your stoploss gets triggered, if it frightens you, then exit your shorts and buy PUTs.....else continue holding them....  |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #133 Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:21 am Post subject: |
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| The nos of increase in open interest of 5700 calls suggests something? |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #134 Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:29 am Post subject: |
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| taxmann50 wrote: | | The nos of increase in open interest of 5700 calls suggests something? |
Better Apka answer this....by the way, some unusual covering happening in 6100 CALLs and 5100 PUTs.......I can understand the covering happening in 5600 CALLs...but how abt the other two??....  |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #135 Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:31 am Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | taxmann50 wrote: | | The nos of increase in open interest of 5700 calls suggests something? |
Better Apka answer this....by the way, some unusual covering happening in 6100 CALLs and 5100 PUTs.......I can understand the covering happening in 5600 CALLs...but how abt the other two??.... |
Yes right, I did not notice that , strange phenomena |
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