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NIFTY VIEW - November |
apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
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Post: #391  Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 11:59 am Post subject: |
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NIFTY -10, VIX +1 (+5%), and out of the money puts are having Negative net change
very weird... |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #392 Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 12:07 pm Post subject: |
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5570 NF point seemed to be a strong support, almost 5 times on 5min TF it has rebounded from there.  |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #393 Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 12:15 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | NIFTY -10, VIX +1 (+5%), and out of the money puts are having Negative net change
very weird... |
Looks like traders are expecting some kinda pullback, I feel......may be that's why PUT writers are pretty active today....anyway, I have modified the TSL for the PUTs (half I had exited on friday) I'm holding to just above 5630 now...  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #394 Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 12:17 pm Post subject: |
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| 19% drop last week in OI in nifty fut. Highest so far |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
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| Post: #395 Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 12:21 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | 19% drop last week in OI in nifty fut. Highest so far |
It doesn't look like short-covering, cos the market was going down...its more like long unwinding, I believe.... |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #396 Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 12:25 pm Post subject: |
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| Indeed sam, it IS long unwinding but option data is very confusing. Some game on? |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #397 Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 12:27 pm Post subject: |
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yeh, that 19 lakh is just stats for friday. u missed my earlier post:
| Quote: | wait... nifty options data is correct as above, but future position was incorrect. it has updated as EOD -20 lakh shares. So total OI of nov fut has become tiny 150 lakhs.
other day, short covering made fut shed OI, today big time exit in long positions made it fall, hence premium also reduced to near 5 points.
I guess november is going nowhere. |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #398 Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 12:31 pm Post subject: |
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| even 5600-5900pe in the money puts are seeing negative change despite rising VIX and -10 nifty... longs exiting in puts now. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #399 Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 12:48 pm Post subject: |
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apka, I said 19% not 19 lacs.
Also, premium has increased from 10 to 20 now |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
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| Post: #400 Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 1:10 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | apka, I said 19% not 19 lacs.
Also, premium has increased from 10 to 20 now |
ok whoops
how much will the "End of world in Dec 2012" put its effect on market if at all ? |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #401 Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 1:20 pm Post subject: |
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| don't you think end of the world should come with a big bang in nifty? At least people will die with a smile. |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #402 Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 1:39 pm Post subject: |
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| Europe has opened with a big gap up, it seems unlikely that it will be able to hold onto the levels, |
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stevenmat
White Belt
Joined: 27 Dec 2011
Posts: 478
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| Post: #403 Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 1:47 pm Post subject: |
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| Jan 4 high of 6181 and dec 20 low of 4531...61.8% fib retracement comes at 5550...you think that'll be a support? |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #404 Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 1:52 pm Post subject: |
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| taxmann50 wrote: | | Europe has opened with a big gap up, it seems unlikely that it will be able to hold onto the levels, |
DAX has resistance in the range 7050-7100...even if broken, there is reasonable resistance around 7200....so, these are just pullbacks.....sustainable break above 7200 is needed there.....similarly in FTSE, levels in the range 5680-5710 could offer reasonable resistance....having said that, the dollar index has tested the resistance area around 81.5 on friday and then went down....as long as the index stays below 81.5 levels there is good chance for the markets to pullback or resume the rally......if the dollar index goes down from here, then the pattern will be somewhat like a HNS....with target around 72.....that's the danger for a bear.... |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #405 Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 2:03 pm Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | taxmann50 wrote: | | Europe has opened with a big gap up, it seems unlikely that it will be able to hold onto the levels, |
DAX has resistance in the range 7050-7100...even if broken, there is reasonable resistance around 7200....so, these are just pullbacks.....sustainable break above 7200 is needed there.....similarly in FTSE, levels in the range 5680-5710 could offer reasonable resistance....having said that, the dollar index has tested the resistance area around 81.5 on friday and then went down....as long as the index stays below 81.5 levels there is good chance for the markets to pullback or resume the rally......if the dollar index goes down from here, then the pattern will be somewhat like a HNS....with target around 72.....that's the danger for a bear.... |
Yes, 5570 NF has to break else its becoming a reasonable support, bank nifty is terribly weak |
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