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Nifty View - October Series |
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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Post: #136  Posted: Mon Oct 20, 2014 8:35 pm Post subject: |
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| Rarely do we see a falling wedge break out with a gap up open above the upper TL and nifty taking support of that TL throughout the day. Now to see whether that TL is respected. The lines drawn thru gaps seems to give present upper limit if nifty goes up. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #137 Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:04 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | Nifty for Tuesday (21/10/14)
....... [b]If it doesn't cross 7928 on Tuesday, there will be a bearish div. Also, if opens gap down and breaks 7856, there can be an abandoned baby top.[/b]...... |
At last 7928NS is crossed. And no gap down open also. Now I feel H-L may be at least 90.  |
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riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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| Post: #138 Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:48 am Post subject: |
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if not able to cross or close 7957 / 7965 today, then it may again slide down to 7847 / 7857 range again...
first sign would be breaking yest close...
| riteshucha wrote: | above 7918 tgt are 7940 / 7962 / 7984... SL now 7901
upside 7957/7965 could be a big big resistance... sustaining above this can tgt 8057 either today or tomm... |
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manojkr78
Green Belt
Joined: 07 Mar 2011
Posts: 1014
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| Post: #139 Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 3:37 pm Post subject: |
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Vinay,
Has nifty turned bullish??? |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #140 Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 4:11 pm Post subject: |
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| manojkr78 wrote: | Vinay,
Has nifty turned bullish??? |
if by bullish you mean whether it will make an all time high soon then the answer is no, at least not yet. Yesterday I posted about bearish div if NS doesn't cross 7928, which it did and nullified the div. However, a new one has developed and now NS must cross 7973 tmrw to kill it.
But, BO of falling wedge is giving hope for higher levels though 7965-8000 seems to be the limit as of now. Also, bullish div formed last week also gives hope.
If, however, NS breaches yesterday's low of 7956 and sustains below it, we may see 7670 again. |
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harsh_85
White Belt
Joined: 06 Nov 2011
Posts: 16
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| Post: #141 Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 5:44 pm Post subject: |
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Vinayji,
If nifty spot is able to cross 8000 then what could be the tgts? and also if nifty by any chance is able to cross above its all time highs then how much more can it go? sorry for naive question...actually i have sold 8300 ce of december and am buying nifty futures in order to hedge that position. bought one part already above 7850 and now am planning to buy above 7970-8000 ad mentioned by u...thanks |
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manojkr78
Green Belt
Joined: 07 Mar 2011
Posts: 1014
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| Post: #142 Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:00 pm Post subject: |
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| tnx, i was asking todays closing has given any BO.....according to one of your earlier post 5928 was important levels for today..... |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #143 Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:13 pm Post subject: |
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| harsh_85 wrote: | Vinayji,
If nifty spot is able to cross 8000 then what could be the tgts? and also if nifty by any chance is able to cross above its all time highs then how much more can it go? sorry for naive question...actually i have sold 8300 ce of december and am buying nifty futures in order to hedge that position. bought one part already above 7850 and now am planning to buy above 7970-8000 ad mentioned by u...thanks |
Selling calls ....wow... I also intend to sell 7500 dec call not 8300.......just waiting a pivot break below 7840 or if is rises above 8030-8050.....8180-8300 may may be touched..... But don't think time left except for a vertical rise( slow rises to above 8200 ruled out for me)...... As usual ( market makers are smArt (er) enough and would not allow retail like me to profit big time on shorts.......) |
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harsh_85
White Belt
Joined: 06 Nov 2011
Posts: 16
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| Post: #144 Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:23 pm Post subject: |
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Hey amitaggji,
pls dont feel offended but may i know the basis on which u r expecting not more than 8300? i am keen learner thats why am asking the question...i have been following u guys since past year but this must be my 3rd post...lol |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #145 Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:30 pm Post subject: |
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| harsh_85 wrote: | Vinayji,
If nifty spot is able to cross 8000 then what could be the tgts? and also if nifty by any chance is able to cross above its all time highs then how much more can it go? sorry for naive question...actually i have sold 8300 ce of december and am buying nifty futures in order to hedge that position. bought one part already above 7850 and now am planning to buy above 7970-8000 ad mentioned by u...thanks |
harsh, it's too early to confidently say anything since it's ALWAYS a matter of certain levels being broken and hence my reply is going to be a bit long and perhaps boring. What's more, what's the guarantee that nifty will react severely after making a new all time high?
So, I feel that even if nifty crosses above 7973NS, next resistance is 8020NF. I have no intention of confusing between NS and NF, but it is that way. Then 8120NF and then 8275/8400NF. On the lower side, I don't think previous low of 7723 will be broken and even if it is, worst case could be about 7660 and then it could shoot up from about mid Nov. Having said this, market will remain long term bullish even if it falls much more.
When FIIs started selling in Sept, there were only 2 big ones. Last week 2 more joined. As I posted last week, circulation among FIIs is going on now and we don't know when it will stop.
Having said this, shorting 8300ce is very risky as of now. for your info, since I like to gamble sometimes with very small qty, I am long in 9000ce of Dec. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #146 Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:31 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | manojkr78 wrote: | Vinay,
Has nifty turned bullish??? |
if by bullish you mean whether it will make an all time high soon then the answer is no, at least not yet. Yesterday I posted about bearish div if NS doesn't cross 7928, which it did and nullified the div. However, a new one has developed and now NS must cross 7973 tmrw to kill it.
But, BO of falling wedge is giving hope for higher levels though 7965-8000 seems to be the limit as of now. Also, bullish div formed last week also gives hope.
If, however, NS breaches yesterday's low of 7956 and sustains below it, we may see 7670 again. |
we may see a open above 7973 tmrw. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #147 Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:59 pm Post subject: |
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Nifty for Wednesday (22/10/14)
Supports are at about 7912, 7897/89/84, 7850 and 7808 while resistances are at about 7937, 7952, 7976, 7996 and 8015/24. Unfilled gaps on lower/higher side are at about 7625 and 7961 resp. Six +WWs can give about 7986/8136 (if above 7767), 8000/8167 (if above 7683) and 8016/ 8132 (if above 7742) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 7865 (if below 7936), 7829 (once below 7905) and 7676 (once below 7859) (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned as of now).
Nifty rose after a volatile session and closed well above 7900 and continues to look bullish. But bulls should not count chicken till it crosses 7973 and also closes above 7969. If it doesn't cross 7973 on Wednesday, there will be a bearish div again. A close below 7866 is a warning but a weekly close below 7822 can cause further fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #148 Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:00 pm Post subject: |
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| Updated NF levels. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #149 Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:08 pm Post subject: |
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| harsh_85 wrote: | Hey amitaggji,
pls dont feel offended but may i know the basis on which u r expecting not more than 8300? i am keen learner thats why am asking the question...i have been following u guys since past year but this must be my 3rd post...lol |
I am never ever offended by posts which seek more info or are contrary to ones own posts.
Just basis is only EW.
It's long term bull otherwise on yearly time frame and I feel 7600 would definitely be broken before 8400 is hit.... And then 8900 and 10400 and so on and so forth. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #150 Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:11 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | manojkr78 wrote: | Vinay,
Has nifty turned bullish??? |
if by bullish you mean whether it will make an all time high soon then the answer is no, at least not yet. Yesterday I posted about bearish div if NS doesn't cross 7928, which it did and nullified the div. However, a new one has developed and now NS must cross 7973 tmrw to kill it.
But, BO of falling wedge is giving hope for higher levels though 7965-8000 seems to be the limit as of now. Also, bullish div formed last week also gives hope.
If, however, NS breaches yesterday's low of 7956 and sustains below it, we may see 7670 again. |
we may see a open above 7973 tmrw. |
I think manoj question was in response to my post since edited that nifty could be bought today for 100-200 upside or below 7500 and not at 7600-7700 in my opinion. Seems the upside is opening up as mentioned and shall bring cheer to both very short term Bulls and somewhat longer bears......  |
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