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Nifty View - October Series |
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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Post: #46  Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 12:39 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | Either bottom is made OR 14% below 8180? |
market wouldn't be kind to give us 8180 in one day would it  |
if you pray for it, yes. best case 8531 next week.  |
it's flying, but what is making it move, banknifty is sub-dued. |
what's ur problem? r u short? |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #47 Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 12:58 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | Either bottom is made OR 14% below 8180? |
market wouldn't be kind to give us 8180 in one day would it |
if you pray for it, yes. best case 8531 next week. |
it's flying, but what is making it move, banknifty is sub-dued. |
what's ur problem? r u short? |
long 1/3 in nifty, 2/3 in banknifty. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #48 Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 3:59 pm Post subject: |
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Chart 1 - The nail biting zone.
Chart 2 - Another view. If NF doesn't reverse from about 7946 then much lower levels possible. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #49 Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 8:41 pm Post subject: |
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Nifty Wednesday (01/10/14)
Supports are closely spaced at about 7945, 7930, 7905, 7899, 7866, 7850, 7819, 7810 and 7803 while resistances are at about 7974, 7996, 8001, 8023, 8057, 8085, 8100 and 8150. Four +WWs can give about 8006 (if above 7931), 8055 (once above 7972), 8081 (once above 7981) and 8093 (if above 7950) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 7900 and 7750 (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give as much as 8345 if nifty remains above 7955. A HnS can give about 7800/7680 if nifty remains below 7965. A channel can give about 8045/7880 upon BO/BD above/below 7991/7934.
Nifty closed flattish +ve above 7950 but is not out of the woods. Daily candle is an inverted hammer cum bullish engulfing. There is also a mild +ve div. The worry for bulls will be if nifty doesn't cross 8045 soon, latest by Wednesday. Otherwise, bearish div may appear. It is still a "sell on rise" situation unless nifty closes above 8050 first and then 8115. A close below 7920 will be worrisome but a close below 7840/7800 may end the bull rally for a few months. Global events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. This being a truncated week, trade carefully. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #50 Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 10:51 am Post subject: |
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| next 5 days are holidays, looks like premium eating day today. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #51 Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 10:53 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | next 5 days are holidays, looks like premium eating day today. |
unless 7920 is taken out, I may carry my longs. let's see what happens after about 11.30. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #52 Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 11:41 am Post subject: |
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| we may be surprised by a 100 point gap up/down open on Tuesday though I feel up. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #53 Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 11:50 am Post subject: |
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| nifty lot size revised to 25 from 31/10. |
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bappa1971
White Belt
Joined: 19 Mar 2012
Posts: 171
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| Post: #54 Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 11:52 am Post subject: hello |
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dear vinay...lets open at a all time new high on tuesday  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #55 Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 12:02 pm Post subject: Re: hello |
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| bappa1971 wrote: | | dear vinay...lets open at a all time new high on tuesday |
your going is good so why not? |
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pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #56 Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 12:25 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | nifty lot size revised to 25 from 31/10. |
NSE (, SEBI, FinMin) are short sighted fools. They want to "save" small man. Those who want to play, will play anyway. But small man is forced to take higher unacceptable risk by keeping lot size high.
NSE should make index lot size 10 and even this is Rs 80,000 for NF and Rs 160,000 for BNF!
Bringing in more investments from small punters will broaden the market base and make it more difficult for manipulators to achieve their ends
Prakash Holla |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #57 Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 12:38 pm Post subject: |
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| pkholla wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | nifty lot size revised to 25 from 31/10. |
NSE (, SEBI, FinMin) are short sighted fools. They want to "save" small man. Those who want to play, will play anyway. But small man is forced to take higher unacceptable risk by keeping lot size high.
NSE should make index lot size 10 and even this is Rs 80,000 for NF and Rs 160,000 for BNF!
Bringing in more investments from small punters will broaden the market base and make it more difficult for manipulators to achieve their ends
Prakash Holla |
actually Prakash, reducing lot size is a ploy to suck in retail since now margin is down to about 20K per lot. Exchanges are always hands in gloves with FIIs to lure suckers. |
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pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #58 Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:09 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | actually Prakash, reducing lot size is a ploy to suck in retail since now margin is down to about 20K per lot. Exchanges are always hands in gloves with FIIs to lure suckers. |
Vinay, I ask you to remember the "logic" used by SEBI around 2 years back when they removed the Mini Nifty. They "wanted to save the small man from excessive speculation". But this move was roundly criticized by experts like Gautam Shashangan who found Mini NF convenient to hedge their other bets
Gamblers will always find a way to gamble. But keeping lot size high means that even the minimum amount may be too high for genuine investors and therefore a risky bet.
NSE can reduce the index future lot size to 10 units and stipulate that brokers should take the entire amount from buyers (and not just a margin), like any spot share purchase.
Sellers should keep the entire amount recd in their account and should be asked to keep add'l margin to account for adverse move of NF/ BNF
Last edited by pkholla on Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:12 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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ragarwal
Yellow Belt
Joined: 16 Nov 2008
Posts: 582
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| Post: #59 Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:10 pm Post subject: |
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| for ppl like me who trade in multiple lots,this is very bad news for now i will have to pay double brokerage |
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pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #60 Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:14 pm Post subject: |
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| ragarwal wrote: | | for ppl like me who trade in multiple lots,this is very bad news for now i will have to pay double brokerage |
Rashmi, you have to negotiate with your broker to keep the brokerage amount the same as before! If he values your turnover, he will oblige. Prakash Holla
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