iCharts Discussions

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

Nifty view based on Fibonacci time cycle – In Sept 2014, nifty completes 13 months since it made a low of 5118 on 28th August 13 and, furthermore, in Oct 2014, it completes 34 months since it made a low of 4531 on 20th Dec 11. This indicates that an important peak is likely to have been made in Sept ’14 or is likely to be made in in Oct ’14. Diwali is on 23/10.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

Chart 1 - Big red wolf has woken up. SL sustaining about 7950.

Chart 2 - Sell on rise unless a new high is made. Check levels of Oct fut as of now in the doc file.

Chart 3 - But, let's not count chicken even before the eggs are laid.

Chart 4 - Likely resistances if nifty reverses - 7960/7980/8000/8070/8115, the last two will increase slowly as days pass.

Chart 5 - Similarity of nifty patterns, first posted many months ago.

Chart 6 - HnS breakdown. Target 7800 (best, but rare, case 7680).

and finally

Chart 6 - Nifty on the edge of the cliff. Will RSI push it down or will it pull it back violently as it has done many times in the past.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

Oct futures

from 3:08 pm to 3:23 pm on 25/9 expiry day, huge short covering was seen. actually 20% of the volume for the day was traded within this 15 min period.

And to add credence to it, FII's have long liquidated 35382 contracts and short covered a whopping 83228 contracts, a difference of 47846 contracts.

see the 5tf chart of today for Oct fut

bappa1971 · White Belt Joined: 19 Mar 2012 Posts: 171

now lets hope for a big jump upside in oct commensing tomorrow 2guns

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

Nifty for Friday (26/09/14)

Supports are at about 7851/41/31, 7819 and 7794 while resistances are at about 7939, 7963, 7982, 8000, 8040 and 8079. Previous low was at about 7855. Six +WWs can give about 7963/8022 (once above 7923), 7988 (once above 7943), 8004 (once above 7935), 8050/82 (once above 7996) (once above 7959) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 7864 (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give as much as 8345 if nifty goes and remains above 7950. A HnS can give about 7800/7680 if nifty remains below 7950.

Nifty fell sharply again and barely closed above 7900 and is very bearish. However, it bounced from 50 dma and huge short covering/buying in last 30 min suggests a likely reversal, however small. Also, bullish div is mildly visible and positional short sellers should be careful. It is now a "sell on rise" situation unless nifty closes above 8066. Friday should close at least above 7955. Global events can have a bearing on how nifty moves.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

Assuming constant vix, range for 30 days from 26/9 is 8216/7608NS and 8278/7666NF.

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

diff between ns and nf low about 55+ points and difference between their highs about 65+ points... a bit too much.

there are 5 trading holidays in Oct, 17 available. 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 23rd, 24th. all long weekends, so be thoughtful in selecting and keeping options for carrying. premiums may may erode quickly.