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Nifty View - Sept '16 Series |
riteshucha Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012 Posts: 1292
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Post: #16 Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2016 1:31 pm Post subject: |
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vinay,
any thoughts on the OI in NF, seems to be very very high at this point...
vinay28 wrote: | anusantosh wrote: | vinay28 wrote: | August was the sixth month to close +ve, first time since Jan '07. If history is going to repeat, max about 8900 soon and then 16% fall till mid Oct. Then about 80% rise from about 7500. |
I didn't get 80%rise from 7500. Is that 14500 nifty or what?! |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #17 Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2016 3:28 pm Post subject: |
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riteshucha wrote: | vinay,
any thoughts on the OI in NF, seems to be very very high at this point... |
yes ritesh. Last time it happened, market fell >10% |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #18 Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2016 7:57 pm Post subject: |
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This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Tuesday (06/09/16) and beyond
Supports are at about 8798/85/74/63/42/12/01, 8652 and 8623 while resistances are at about 8828/36/60 and 8901. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8938/8744. Two +WWs can give about 8859 and 8920 (if above 8745) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 8505 (if below 8715) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A rising wedge can give about 8630 in case nifty breaks below 8740. A bullish flag can give 8900+ unless killed below 8650.
Nifty opened gap up, fell a bit but rose sharply to close +ve above 8800 for the first time since 13/4/15 and the highest weekly close since March '15. Daily candle is a doji cum spinning top with good +ve volume and weekly candle is strong +ve with strong +ve volume. Hence, we may see further rise. The -ve div on daily continues but its the hidden bearish div on weekly and monthly which is worrying and a sudden flight of capital can cause a major fall. Incidentally, this bearish div gets nullified only at/above 9120. Nifty must close above 8834 to continue the rally while a close below 8774 can start a fall. Global and local eco-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. |
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ridinghood Yellow Belt
Joined: 16 Apr 2009 Posts: 724
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Post: #19 Posted: Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:26 pm Post subject: |
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dear vinay,
pl check ur facts. actually it was 8 consecutive+ ve closes from june,2006(3128) till jan,2007(4038).in feb,2007 nifty fell from high of 4245 to close at 3745. In march 2007 it hit low of 3555 to close at 3822.
regds |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #20 Posted: Tue Sep 06, 2016 7:55 am Post subject: |
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ridinghood wrote: | dear vinay,
pl check ur facts. actually it was 8 consecutive+ ve closes from june,2006(3128) till jan,2007(4038).in feb,2007 nifty fell from high of 4245 to close at 3745. In march 2007 it hit low of 3555 to close at 3822.
regds |
tks, I will but my +ve close is a green candle and not a close above previous close. |
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manojkr78 Green Belt
Joined: 07 Mar 2011 Posts: 1014
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Post: #21 Posted: Tue Sep 06, 2016 3:10 pm Post subject: |
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vinay, nifty open interest getting higher....... |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #22 Posted: Tue Sep 06, 2016 7:27 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: | ridinghood wrote: | dear vinay,
pl check ur facts. actually it was 8 consecutive+ ve closes from june,2006(3128) till jan,2007(4038).in feb,2007 nifty fell from high of 4245 to close at 3745. In march 2007 it hit low of 3555 to close at 3822.
regds |
tks, I will but my +ve close is a green candle and not a close above previous close. |
riding hood, what I have said is correct. I didn't say jan '07 was sixth +ve month (which is 8th as you have said) but since then no six consecutive months have closed +ve. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #23 Posted: Tue Sep 06, 2016 7:28 pm Post subject: |
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manojkr78 wrote: | vinay, nifty open interest getting higher....... |
yes manoj, it's unprecedented. but liquidity is supreme. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #24 Posted: Tue Sep 06, 2016 7:41 pm Post subject: |
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This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Wednesday (07/09/16) and beyond
Supports are at about 8920/00, 8895/74/42/09, 8796 and 8765 while resistances are at about 8983 and 9020. Unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8809. (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).
Nifty opened gap up and didn't look back, made the highest high after 5/3/15 and second highest close after 3/3/15 well above 8900. Daily candle is big, bullish Marubuzo but volume is not commensurate. Also hidden bearish div is increasing on all TFs, which gets killed only at 9120. Hence, any further rise may be limited unless persistent liquidity inflow takes it to at least 9120. Nifty must close above 8953/97 to continue the rally while a close below 8786 can start a fall. Global and local eco-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. |
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apka Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137
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Post: #25 Posted: Tue Sep 06, 2016 7:57 pm Post subject: |
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Just noticed OI is so high, well near 350 lakhs, never seen such a huge built up |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #26 Posted: Tue Sep 06, 2016 8:05 pm Post subject: |
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apka wrote: | Just noticed OI is so high, well near 350 lakhs, never seen such a huge built up |
it's either rerating or ....... get ready |
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manojkr78 Green Belt
Joined: 07 Mar 2011 Posts: 1014
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Post: #27 Posted: Tue Sep 06, 2016 8:56 pm Post subject: |
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P/E ratio is also high 24.52 |
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apka Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137
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Post: #28 Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:53 am Post subject: |
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manojkr78 wrote: | P/E ratio is also high 24.52 |
For which year |
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manojkr78 Green Belt
Joined: 07 Mar 2011 Posts: 1014
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Post: #29 Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2016 7:58 am Post subject: |
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current |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #30 Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2016 8:14 pm Post subject: |
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This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Thursday (08/09/16) and beyond
Supports are at about 8905, 8894/75/48, 8797 and 8766 while resistances are at about 8936/56/69/92 and 9012. Unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8809. A +WW can give about 8948 (if above 8913) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).
Nifty opened gap up but fell immediately to close -ve but above 8900. Daily candle forms a dark cloud cover cum shaven head cum thrusting pattern with strong -ve volume and -ve div. A red candle on Thursday will confirm these patterns. Some more fall seems likely now. Only a close above 8969 is now bullish. Also, effect of hidden bearish div on all TFs, which gets killed only at 9120, is likely. Hence, any further rise may be limited unless persistent liquidity inflow takes it to at least 9120. Nifty must close above 8997 to continue the rally while a close below 8786 can cause more damage. Global and local eco-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. |
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