View previous topic :: View next topic |
Author |
Nifty View - Sept '16 Series |
vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
|
Post: #1 Posted: Thu Aug 25, 2016 7:45 pm Post subject: Nifty View - Sept '16 Series |
|
|
This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Friday (26/08/16) and beyond
Supports are at about 8579/68/53/31 and 8517 while resistances are at about 8603/23/42/59/78, 8712 and 8722. Three +WWs can give about 8628 (if above 8591), 8660 (if above 8620) and 8703 (if above 8579) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 8458 and 8274 (if below 8598) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A ST can give about 8810/8460 in case of a break out/down above/below 8680/8590 resp. A HnS can give about 8470 if nifty breaks below 8580.
Nifty opened gap up and fell sharply to close below 8600. Daily volume is good -ve and we may see further fall. On a daily basis, nifty must close above 8674 to begin with while on weekly basis, it must close above 8638 if no lower low is made on Friday. A close below 8575/44/08 can be increasingly painful. Global and local eco-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
|
|
vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
|
Post: #2 Posted: Fri Aug 26, 2016 7:41 pm Post subject: |
|
|
This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Monday (29/08/16) and beyond
Supports are at about 8550/31/02 and 8389 while resistances are at about 8586, 8617/59/74 and 8783. An unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8467. A +WW can give about 8718 (if above 8577) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 8425 and 8274 (if below 8608) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A ST can give about 8810/8460 in case of a break out/down above/below 8680/8590 resp. A HnS can give about 8475 if nifty breaks below 8585.
Nifty opened gap up and again fell to close below 8600. Daily volume is good -ve and we may see further fall. Nifty must close above 8651 to begin with while a close below 8544/08 can be increasingly painful. Global and local eco-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
|
Post: #3 Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2016 6:41 pm Post subject: |
|
|
This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Tuesday (30/08/16) and beyond
Supports are at about 8599/87/66/55/4419//05 and 8461 while resistances are at about 8621/39/59/72/87, 8721 and 8742. Two +WWs can give about 8656/8727 (if above 8575) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 8400 and 8274 (if below 8615) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A ST can give about 8800/8460 in case of a break out/down above/below 8670/8590 resp. A HnS can give about 8475 if nifty breaks below 8585.
Nifty opened gap up, fell again to make a lower low and recovered sharply to close above 8600. There is +ve div but daily volume is not strong +ve and any further rise may be limited. Nifty must close above 8674 to begin with while a close below 8572 can start further fall. Global and local eco-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
|
Post: #4 Posted: Tue Aug 30, 2016 6:19 pm Post subject: |
|
|
This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Wednesday (31/08/16) and beyond
Supports are at about 8731/08, 8671/53/28, 8599 and 8579 while resistances are at about 8777/88, 8827/35, 8906 and 8950. An unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8607. Two +WWs can give about 8824/52 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A ST can give about 8800/8460 in case of a break out/down above/below 8670/8590 resp. A rising wedge can give about 8630 in case nifty breaks below 8740.
Nifty opened gap up and rose sharply to close strongly +ve and well above 8700. Daily candle is a big, bullish Marubuzo with good +ve volume. But there is now a mild -ve div on all TFs. Nifty must close above 8834 to continue the rally while a close below 8711 can start further fall. On monthly basis, close below 8638 can be bearish. Global and local eco-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
|
Post: #5 Posted: Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:42 pm Post subject: |
|
|
This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Thursday (01/09/16) and beyond
Supports are at about 8777/63/51/36/18/05, 8653/23 and 8593 while resistances are at about 8822/55, 8901 and 9012. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8938/8744. A +WW can give about 8848 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 8505 (if below 8715 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A rising wedge can give about 8630 in case nifty breaks below 8740.
Nifty opened gap up and rose again to close strongly +ve and well above 8750. Daily volume is strong +ve volume and we may see further rise. But the -ve div on all TFs persists and we may see a reaction soon. This was the sixth month to close +ve, first time since Jan '07. Monthly candle and volume are good +ve. Monthly candle is NR28 and we may see a big move in Sept. Nifty must close above 8834 to continue the rally while a close below 8744 can start further fall. Global and local eco-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
|
Post: #6 Posted: Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:28 pm Post subject: |
|
|
August was the sixth month to close +ve, first time since Jan '07. If history is going to repeat, max about 8900 soon and then 16% fall till mid Oct. Then about 80% rise from about 7500. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
AjitS White Belt
Joined: 21 Aug 2013 Posts: 138
|
Post: #7 Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2016 9:15 am Post subject: |
|
|
vinay28 wrote: | August was the sixth month to close +ve, first time since Jan '07. If history is going to repeat, max about 8900 soon and then 16% fall till mid Oct. Then about 80% rise from about 7500. |
Good Analysis, Vinay. Thanks for sharing your view.
But just want to cross check again :-> Do you see 16% fall (about 1400 pts on NIFTY) till mid-Oct which is just about 30-odd sessions from now on? |
|
Back to top |
|
|
vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
|
Post: #8 Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2016 3:20 pm Post subject: |
|
|
AjitS wrote: | vinay28 wrote: | August was the sixth month to close +ve, first time since Jan '07. If history is going to repeat, max about 8900 soon and then 16% fall till mid Oct. Then about 80% rise from about 7500. |
Good Analysis, Vinay. Thanks for sharing your view.
But just want to cross check again :-> Do you see 16% fall (about 1400 pts on NIFTY) till mid-Oct which is just about 30-odd sessions from now on? |
not really ajit, it's just history based. But tmrw's move/close is crucial to begin with and then next Friday's close. Note today's candle will be bearish harami. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
apka Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137
|
Post: #9 Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:43 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Incidentally Rakesh Jhunjhunwala said 2 days ago to ET: We are at the start of a bull market, it is going to make us forget 2003. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
|
Post: #10 Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:18 pm Post subject: |
|
|
apka wrote: | Incidentally Rakesh Jhunjhunwala said 2 days ago to ET: We are at the start of a bull market, it is going to make us forget 2003. |
why do you listen to that crap. last year he said nifty will not go below 8000 |
|
Back to top |
|
|
vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
|
Post: #11 Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:42 pm Post subject: |
|
|
This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Friday (02/09/16) and beyond
Supports are at about 8747/36/26, 8696/53/25/03 and 8594 while resistances are at about 8786, 8808/39 and 8901. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8938/8744. Two +WWs can give about 8850 and 8880 (if above 8765) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 8505 (if below 8715) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A rising wedge can give about 8630 in case nifty breaks below 8740. A bullish flag can give 8900+ unless killed below 8650.
Nifty opened gap up but couldn't sustain and fell to close -ve but above 8750. Daily candle is bearish Harami with good -ve volume and we may see further fall. Weekly candle is expected to be strong +ve unless we see a big fall on Friday. On daily basis, nifty must close above 8787 to begin with while a close below 8744/11 can start further fall. On a weekly basis, a close below 8683 is bad. Global and local eco-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
anusantosh White Belt
Joined: 19 Jun 2011 Posts: 105
|
Post: #12 Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:39 pm Post subject: |
|
|
vinay28 wrote: | August was the sixth month to close +ve, first time since Jan '07. If history is going to repeat, max about 8900 soon and then 16% fall till mid Oct. Then about 80% rise from about 7500. |
I didn't get 80%rise from 7500. Is that 14500 nifty or what?! |
|
Back to top |
|
|
vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
|
Post: #13 Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:03 am Post subject: |
|
|
anusantosh wrote: | vinay28 wrote: | August was the sixth month to close +ve, first time since Jan '07. If history is going to repeat, max about 8900 soon and then 16% fall till mid Oct. Then about 80% rise from about 7500. |
I didn't get 80%rise from 7500. Is that 14500 nifty or what?! |
|
|
Back to top |
|
|
pkholla Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010 Posts: 2890
|
Post: #14 Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:40 am Post subject: Yeah! Way to go, Vinay! |
|
|
vinay28 wrote: | August was the sixth month to close +ve, first time since Jan '07. If history is going to repeat, max about 8900 soon and then 16% fall till mid Oct. Then about 80% rise from about 7500. |
Vinay, when market proves you right, then you are spectacularly right.
I pray that you are right in THIS prediction, and give me closure on some "Recycle Bin" stocks I am holding with fevicol grip since 2010 bull phase!
Cheers, Prakash Holla |
|
Back to top |
|
|
spatechnicals White Belt
Joined: 02 Nov 2010 Posts: 15
|
Post: #15 Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2016 12:47 pm Post subject: |
|
|
donaldbradley.wordpress.com
is only one which has nice trading calls on commodities |
|
Back to top |
|
|
|