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Nifty View - Sept '16 Series
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Author Nifty View - Sept '16 Series
vinay28
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Post: #1   PostPosted: Thu Aug 25, 2016 7:45 pm    Post subject: Nifty View - Sept '16 Series Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Friday (26/08/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8579/68/53/31 and 8517 while resistances are at about 8603/23/42/59/78, 8712 and 8722. Three +WWs can give about 8628 (if above 8591), 8660 (if above 8620) and 8703 (if above 8579) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 8458 and 8274 (if below 8598) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A ST can give about 8810/8460 in case of a break out/down above/below 8680/8590 resp. A HnS can give about 8470 if nifty breaks below 8580.

Nifty opened gap up and fell sharply to close below 8600. Daily volume is good -ve and we may see further fall. On a daily basis, nifty must close above 8674 to begin with while on weekly basis, it must close above 8638 if no lower low is made on Friday. A close below 8575/44/08 can be increasingly painful. Global and local eco-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Post: #2   PostPosted: Fri Aug 26, 2016 7:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Monday (29/08/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8550/31/02 and 8389 while resistances are at about 8586, 8617/59/74 and 8783. An unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8467. A +WW can give about 8718 (if above 8577) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 8425 and 8274 (if below 8608) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A ST can give about 8810/8460 in case of a break out/down above/below 8680/8590 resp. A HnS can give about 8475 if nifty breaks below 8585.

Nifty opened gap up and again fell to close below 8600. Daily volume is good -ve and we may see further fall. Nifty must close above 8651 to begin with while a close below 8544/08 can be increasingly painful. Global and local eco-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Post: #3   PostPosted: Mon Aug 29, 2016 6:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Tuesday (30/08/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8599/87/66/55/4419//05 and 8461 while resistances are at about 8621/39/59/72/87, 8721 and 8742. Two +WWs can give about 8656/8727 (if above 8575) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 8400 and 8274 (if below 8615) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A ST can give about 8800/8460 in case of a break out/down above/below 8670/8590 resp. A HnS can give about 8475 if nifty breaks below 8585.

Nifty opened gap up, fell again to make a lower low and recovered sharply to close above 8600. There is +ve div but daily volume is not strong +ve and any further rise may be limited. Nifty must close above 8674 to begin with while a close below 8572 can start further fall. Global and local eco-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Post: #4   PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2016 6:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Wednesday (31/08/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8731/08, 8671/53/28, 8599 and 8579 while resistances are at about 8777/88, 8827/35, 8906 and 8950. An unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8607. Two +WWs can give about 8824/52 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A ST can give about 8800/8460 in case of a break out/down above/below 8670/8590 resp. A rising wedge can give about 8630 in case nifty breaks below 8740.

Nifty opened gap up and rose sharply to close strongly +ve and well above 8700. Daily candle is a big, bullish Marubuzo with good +ve volume. But there is now a mild -ve div on all TFs. Nifty must close above 8834 to continue the rally while a close below 8711 can start further fall. On monthly basis, close below 8638 can be bearish. Global and local eco-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Post: #5   PostPosted: Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Thursday (01/09/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8777/63/51/36/18/05, 8653/23 and 8593 while resistances are at about 8822/55, 8901 and 9012. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8938/8744. A +WW can give about 8848 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 8505 (if below 8715 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A rising wedge can give about 8630 in case nifty breaks below 8740.

Nifty opened gap up and rose again to close strongly +ve and well above 8750. Daily volume is strong +ve volume and we may see further rise. But the -ve div on all TFs persists and we may see a reaction soon. This was the sixth month to close +ve, first time since Jan '07. Monthly candle and volume are good +ve. Monthly candle is NR28 and we may see a big move in Sept. Nifty must close above 8834 to continue the rally while a close below 8744 can start further fall. Global and local eco-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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vinay28
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Post: #6   PostPosted: Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

August was the sixth month to close +ve, first time since Jan '07. If history is going to repeat, max about 8900 soon and then 16% fall till mid Oct. Then about 80% rise from about 7500. Smile
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AjitS
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Post: #7   PostPosted: Thu Sep 01, 2016 9:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
August was the sixth month to close +ve, first time since Jan '07. If history is going to repeat, max about 8900 soon and then 16% fall till mid Oct. Then about 80% rise from about 7500. Smile


Good Analysis, Vinay. Thanks for sharing your view.
But just want to cross check again :-> Do you see 16% fall (about 1400 pts on NIFTY) till mid-Oct which is just about 30-odd sessions from now on?
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vinay28
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Post: #8   PostPosted: Thu Sep 01, 2016 3:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AjitS wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
August was the sixth month to close +ve, first time since Jan '07. If history is going to repeat, max about 8900 soon and then 16% fall till mid Oct. Then about 80% rise from about 7500. Smile


Good Analysis, Vinay. Thanks for sharing your view.
But just want to cross check again :-> Do you see 16% fall (about 1400 pts on NIFTY) till mid-Oct which is just about 30-odd sessions from now on?


not really ajit, it's just history based. But tmrw's move/close is crucial to begin with and then next Friday's close. Note today's candle will be bearish harami.
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apka
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Post: #9   PostPosted: Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Incidentally Rakesh Jhunjhunwala said 2 days ago to ET: We are at the start of a bull market, it is going to make us forget 2003.
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vinay28
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Post: #10   PostPosted: Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

apka wrote:
Incidentally Rakesh Jhunjhunwala said 2 days ago to ET: We are at the start of a bull market, it is going to make us forget 2003.


why do you listen to that crap. last year he said nifty will not go below 8000
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vinay28
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Post: #11   PostPosted: Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Friday (02/09/16) and beyond

Supports are at about 8747/36/26, 8696/53/25/03 and 8594 while resistances are at about 8786, 8808/39 and 8901. Unfilled gaps on higher/lower side are at about 8938/8744. Two +WWs can give about 8850 and 8880 (if above 8765) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 8505 (if below 8715) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A rising wedge can give about 8630 in case nifty breaks below 8740. A bullish flag can give 8900+ unless killed below 8650.

Nifty opened gap up but couldn't sustain and fell to close -ve but above 8750. Daily candle is bearish Harami with good -ve volume and we may see further fall. Weekly candle is expected to be strong +ve unless we see a big fall on Friday. On daily basis, nifty must close above 8787 to begin with while a close below 8744/11 can start further fall. On a weekly basis, a close below 8683 is bad. Global and local eco-political events and liquidity can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term.
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anusantosh
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Post: #12   PostPosted: Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
August was the sixth month to close +ve, first time since Jan '07. If history is going to repeat, max about 8900 soon and then 16% fall till mid Oct. Then about 80% rise from about 7500. Smile


I didn't get 80%rise from 7500. Is that 14500 nifty or what?! Rolling Eyes
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vinay28
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Post: #13   PostPosted: Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

anusantosh wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
August was the sixth month to close +ve, first time since Jan '07. If history is going to repeat, max about 8900 soon and then 16% fall till mid Oct. Then about 80% rise from about 7500. Smile


I didn't get 80%rise from 7500. Is that 14500 nifty or what?! Rolling Eyes

Smile
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pkholla
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Post: #14   PostPosted: Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:40 am    Post subject: Yeah! Way to go, Vinay! Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
August was the sixth month to close +ve, first time since Jan '07. If history is going to repeat, max about 8900 soon and then 16% fall till mid Oct. Then about 80% rise from about 7500.

Vinay, when market proves you right, then you are spectacularly right.

I pray that you are right in THIS prediction, and give me closure on some "Recycle Bin" stocks I am holding with fevicol grip since 2010 bull phase!

Cheers, Prakash Holla
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spatechnicals
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Post: #15   PostPosted: Fri Sep 02, 2016 12:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

donaldbradley.wordpress.com
is only one which has nice trading calls on commodities
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