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Nifty View - September Series 2013 |
apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
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Post: #166  Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 8:04 pm Post subject: |
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pkholla
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| Post: #167 Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 8:14 pm Post subject: |
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W O W!!!!! |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #168 Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 8:27 pm Post subject: |
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yearly weighted average is 5780. so that's a barrier.
the good news is vix has two weekly inverted hammers and three topping tails |
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amitsolanki73
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Joined: 24 Aug 2013
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vinay28
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| Post: #170 Posted: Sat Sep 07, 2013 1:46 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks amit, I have seen it. I wonder whether he has bought TOI/Times Now and other channels as well. If he has, wow. I wrongly posted it in this thread. So I will not add to it. |
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sonshu101
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Joined: 24 Nov 2011
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| Post: #171 Posted: Sat Sep 07, 2013 9:46 pm Post subject: |
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| @apka: any comments on option OI? |
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apka
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| Post: #172 Posted: Sun Sep 08, 2013 3:22 pm Post subject: |
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| sonshu101 wrote: | | @apka: any comments on option OI? |
Sonshu, from 5450->5700 NF OI is nearly same, no significant change and Options OI wise difficult to judge, as we have so many 50 strikes options now, OI is divided and unequal. But because PCR is 1.28 and VIX is still near 30, I feel a sudden cut of 100-150 points should be there in 2-3 sessions. |
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sonshu101
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Joined: 24 Nov 2011
Posts: 79
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| Post: #173 Posted: Sun Sep 08, 2013 3:42 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | sonshu101 wrote: | | @apka: any comments on option OI? |
Sonshu, from 5450->5700 NF OI is nearly same, no significant change and Options OI wise difficult to judge, as we have so many 50 strikes options now, OI is divided and unequal. But because PCR is 1.28 and VIX is still near 30, I feel a sudden cut of 100-150 points should be there in 2-3 sessions. |
Oh yes. I forgot about 50 strike introduction. I though writers are less this time but yes this time OI is divided. 5750 was previous high as we have made higher low probability of higher high is also there. Lets See 
Thanks for sharing information |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #174 Posted: Sun Sep 08, 2013 3:52 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | sonshu101 wrote: | | @apka: any comments on option OI? |
Sonshu, from 5450->5700 NF OI is nearly same, no significant change and Options OI wise difficult to judge, as we have so many 50 strikes options now, OI is divided and unequal. But because PCR is 1.28 and VIX is still near 30, I feel a sudden cut of 100-150 points should be there in 2-3 sessions. |
apka, check up by adding 50' OI to previous and next 100.
By the way, 50 dma is at about 5704 while 100/200 dma and 50 wma are close together within 5807-5836. Yearly weighted average is about 5780 |
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saumya12
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
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| Post: #175 Posted: Mon Sep 09, 2013 1:41 pm Post subject: |
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Japaani Baadal (Ichimoku)
The indications are not clear this time. Market may move anyside, So trade with care and with strict stoploss.
Daily
We can see mild resistance at 5780-90 and if nifty retraces from here then it is OK otherwise next resistance is at 5850 levels and that too doesnt seem to be a strong resistance.
Further we may see a crossover of Kijun and Tenkan, a bullish indication.
Weekly
Price just stopped at kumo top and closed at Kijun resistance.
May retrace from here.
Just take care.
Support is at 5600 levels. |
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saumya12
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
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| Post: #176 Posted: Mon Sep 09, 2013 2:13 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | in spite of nifty not falling and actualy rising, accumulation going on in 5100pe |
Vinay, VIX is still high and trading near 30.
And at SGX Nifty option 5100pe still has highest OI. (For information purpose.) |
apka, I did post under "running with the wolves" yesterday that premium in PEs is much higher than that in CEs. It means PEs are being bought and not written and pcr is >1.2 due to it. Hence, put writers will make merry by writing puts at right time. This is what is happening but put buying goes on. [b]Just imagine what will happen if these are covered.[/b] That's why OI is high but due to buying. |
What does it mean in simple terms
Particularly
"Just imagine what will happen if these are covered" |
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saumya12
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Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
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| Post: #177 Posted: Mon Sep 09, 2013 2:20 pm Post subject: |
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Hi Prakash
Thanks for the Miners Calculator sheets.
But how to use it.
Please add a help file or explain how to use with an example.
According to this sheet, what are likely next levels for Tuesday.
thanks |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #178 Posted: Mon Sep 09, 2013 5:05 pm Post subject: |
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| saumya12 wrote: | What does it mean in simple terms
Particularly "Just imagine what will happen if these are covered" |
saumya, what I meant was, if puts have indeed been bought heavily as suggested by high premium and pcr, then covering these will push nifty much higher.
by the way what are SL and TL values in your japani badal? |
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saumya12
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
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| Post: #179 Posted: Mon Sep 09, 2013 5:38 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | saumya12 wrote: | What does it mean in simple terms
Particularly "Just imagine what will happen if these are covered" |
saumya, what I meant was, if puts have indeed been bought heavily as suggested by high premium and pcr, then covering these will push nifty much higher.
by the way what are SL and TL values in your japani badal? |
You mean Stoploss (SL) and target level (TL)
IMO, stoploss and target, these two terms are coined by traders for their own benefit, it has no relation/relevance with the chart.
As the indications are not clear, cant say anything about it. |
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pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #180 Posted: Mon Sep 09, 2013 6:07 pm Post subject: |
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| saumya12 wrote: | | Hi Prakash Thanks for the Miners Calculator sheets. But how to use it. Please add a help file or explain how to use with an example. According to this sheet, what are likely next levels for Tuesday. thanks |
Saumya:
1 For example: You may have seen SteveMat's 3-15 ema NS daily candles crossover thread. It is positional in nature and as long as 3 is over 15, stay long etc. Steve cannot say how long to stay in after entering the market. No one can!
2 How I can say in this Miner prediction also? Miner says that due to 20 years' observation of markets while trading, he has observed that ALL MARKETS obey the Fib ratios used in the calc and THAT IF values in the TWO SETS ( internal retracement and alternate price calculation) are near, then good probability of the values being the target of the scrip being monitored!
3 I cannot say in any way with any level of confidence what levels of NS we may see on Tuesday or on any day.
4 Only one more thing, because of universal applicability of Fib ratios, we can apply Miner calc to any scrip with good deal of confidence (taking care that it is not being manipulated by small group, and having low volumes)
Miner's book is full of examples from equity, currency and commodity markets
Saumya please dont read more (OR demand more) into my post than is already there. You may take help of experts like Vinay OR magicians like ABC, XYZ beyond what is in my post!
Jai Hind, Prakash Holla |
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