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Nifty View - September Series 2013 |
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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Post: #196  Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 2:38 pm Post subject: |
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sensex fut has already crossed 20000.
by the way, surprisingly, 5100/5200pe pakadke baitha hai! Not falling. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #197 Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 2:41 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka, I did post under "running with the wolves" yesterday that premium in PEs is much higher than that in CEs. It means PEs are being bought and not written and pcr is >1.2 due to it. Hence, put writers will make merry by writing puts at right time. This is what is happening but put buying goes on. Just imagine what will happen if these are covered. That's why OI is high but due to buying. |
the rest is history as they say!  |
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pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #198 Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 2:42 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | nifty may have reached its top |
Any body else reminded of Aamir Khan+ Pooja Bhatt starrer: Lekin dil hai ki (NF) maanta nahi?
Rajan effect steroid booster shots da jawaab nahin!
Prakash Holla
Bhale USke paas Bernanke hai to kya ho gaya? Hamare paas "Double Veshti" effect hai (C+R)! |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #199 Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 2:49 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | According to one observation (based on sun's transit), high/low of period 13/7 to 26/7 each year is vital. Breakout/down in any direction gives good gains till 14/1 of next year (12-90% gain seen in previous 10 years). Gains are high on second breakout/down if first breakdown/out is false.
This year, high/low in this period of July are 6093/5869. Apka/RK, let's track this regularly. |
this was posted on 29/7 in the thread for august. Once 5869 was broken, the fall gave 13%. Will it cross 6093 now to give an all time before 14/1/14? Or is the rise nearing its end? |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #200 Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 2:53 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | apka, I did post under "running with the wolves" yesterday that premium in PEs is much higher than that in CEs. It means PEs are being bought and not written and pcr is >1.2 due to it. Hence, put writers will make merry by writing puts at right time. This is what is happening but put buying goes on. Just imagine what will happen if these are covered. That's why OI is high but due to buying. |
the rest is history as they say! |
Vinay, since 1 week calls have been shedding OI, and puts are being bought, today also OI in puts have added. So not yet covered. Today PCR should rise to 1.4x because of this.
VIX is again positive and about 18% OI added in NF today so far (33 lakh shares).
And this PCR rising, and rally of 800 points is similar what happened few months back 1000 points rally from 4600->5600 and then crack of 250 points in 2 days.
I have bought 5500pe @ 38. Will add more if chance is there at lower range. Gut feeling says, this will be followed by an equal red candle. let's see.  |
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rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
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| Post: #201 Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 3:16 pm Post subject: |
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| I suspect......Tomorrow could be a gap down opening. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #202 Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 3:17 pm Post subject: |
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apka, the short covering in puts has already given a lot of rise since I first posted. But better not to fight the trend.
just as hardly any one was short when it fell to 5110, hardly anyone was long in this rise. |
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vinay28
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Posts: 11748
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| Post: #203 Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 3:19 pm Post subject: |
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| and now sensex above 20000. |
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pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #204 Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 3:21 pm Post subject: |
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What a strong trend today! Usually some correction is visible from 1500 as Nifty is taken back towards open value by trend punters booking profits and some eager countertrend players trying to make profits. But not today, every fall is countered by some strong green candles. All 5min TF:
1 1235-40-5 reds by 1245-50
2 1255-1300-5 reds by 1305-10-15
3 1340-5 red by 1345-50
etc
Jai Hind, Prakash Holla
Last edited by pkholla on Tue Sep 10, 2013 3:25 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #205 Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 3:23 pm Post subject: |
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| those who believe that this rally will not last will hope that FIIs will start selling once INR improves a bit more thereby cashing on double whammy of profit due to INR rise and rise in nifty as they did in Feb 2012. |
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rrk2006hyd
Yellow Belt
Joined: 13 Oct 2010
Posts: 874
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| Post: #206 Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 3:32 pm Post subject: |
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tomorrow..another gap-up opening...  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #207 Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 3:37 pm Post subject: |
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| rrk2006hyd wrote: | | tomorrow..another gap-up opening... |
who knows? may be!
I am only waiting for 910/925 to come on ril |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #208 Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 6:35 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | The BSE Sensex jumped nearly 4 percent on Tuesday, its biggest single-day gain since May 2009, led by blue chips, as receding fears of a U.S.-led military strike on Syria and a sturdier rupee sparked hopes about foreign investor flows.
Shares posted their fourth consecutive session of gains to send the indexes to their highest since late July, after foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought nearly 20 billion rupees worth of cash shares in the previous three sessions. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #209 Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 6:49 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | Quote: | The BSE Sensex jumped nearly 4 percent on Tuesday, its biggest single-day gain since May 2009, led by blue chips, as receding fears of a U.S.-led military strike on Syria and a sturdier rupee sparked hopes about foreign investor flows.
Shares posted their fourth consecutive session of gains to send the indexes to their highest since late July, after foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought nearly 20 billion rupees worth of cash shares in the previous three sessions. |
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but also created two big gaps. In addition, a sharp V shaped recovery is never healthy and it has to react. Question is from what level and to what extent. Below 5740 could be bad and below 5614 could be very bad. |
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aahoo
White Belt
Joined: 14 Jan 2012
Posts: 20
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| Post: #210 Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 6:57 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | rrk2006hyd wrote: | | tomorrow..another gap-up opening... |
who knows? may be!
I am only waiting for 910/925 to come on ril |
Flat to positive opening (5946). But end of the day lower(5775). For the next few days I assume market will be range bound. But end of this month it will be 5555.
See extreme volatility this series.
Alternate view: One should not get surprised even if market touches 5973 intra-day tomorrow. This will be followed by gap down opening at 5869. |
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