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Nifty View - September Series 2013 |
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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Post: #211  Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 7:21 pm Post subject: |
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| aahoo wrote: | Flat to positive opening (5946). But end of the day lower(5775). For the next few days I assume market will be range bound. But end of this month it will be 5555.
See extreme volatility this series.
Alternate view: One should not get surprised even if market touches 5973 intra-day tomorrow. This will be followed by gap down opening at 5869. |
any technical basis for the above, aahoo sir? |
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chandrujimrc
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Apr 2009
Posts: 1683
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| Post: #212 Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 9:37 pm Post subject: |
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| Nifty inv H&S tgt not yet reached,but exactly halted at 2012 yearly close.So longs keep strict S/L,there is a chance for retesting the neckline. |
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chqmate
White Belt
Joined: 14 Aug 2013
Posts: 10
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| Post: #213 Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 10:34 pm Post subject: |
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Narrow Range in bknifty.... 
sell below 10125 and buy above 10320.... |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #214 Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 9:04 am Post subject: |
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| I can see a +ww in $-Rs so expect some slide in rupee.Corresponding Nifty move too can be expected. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #215 Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 9:36 am Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | I can see a +ww in $-Rs so expect some slide in rupee.Corresponding Nifty move too can be expected. |
for 5 seconds from 64.25 -> it went to 65.785 +2.160 (+3.39%) and back to 64.35. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #216 Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 9:38 am Post subject: |
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| and VIX has again crossed 30. bear rally with so many gaps? who knows. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #217 Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 10:18 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | rk_a2003 wrote: | | I can see a +ww in $-Rs so expect some slide in rupee.Corresponding Nifty move too can be expected. |
for 5 seconds from 64.25 -> it went to 65.785 +2.160 (+3.39%) and back to 64.35. |
that's because it's first target of 63.80 was reached. Not it has to correct up technically. But I feel this will continue longer |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #218 Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 12:09 pm Post subject: |
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| I guess ONLY VINAY was targetting 5940 [amidst the gloom!) and it reached there, way back. GREAT GREAT analysis and thinking......we others starting predicting after 5550 in terms of inverse H&S etc....but wonder how many traded sufficiently long....except Vinay.!!!! |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #219 Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 12:15 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | I guess ONLY VINAY was targetting 5940 [amidst the gloom!) and it reached there, way back. GREAT GREAT analysis and thinking......we others starting predicting after 5550 in terms of inverse H&S etc....but wonder how many traded sufficiently long....except Vinay.!!!! |
thanks but basically I am not a trader, so do it in very small qty. though I did post that I went long at 5130.
Incidentally, I was talking about 5940NS not fut. so that is yet to come. but now it seems even 6093 may be exceeded and then as I posted yesterday ........... |
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beowulf
White Belt
Joined: 18 Aug 2010
Posts: 163
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| Post: #220 Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 12:30 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | I guess ONLY VINAY was targetting 5940 [amidst the gloom!) and it reached there, way back. GREAT GREAT analysis and thinking......we others starting predicting after 5550 in terms of inverse H&S etc....but wonder how many traded sufficiently long....except Vinay.!!!! |
thanks but basically I am not a trader, so do it in very small qty. though I did post that I went long at 5130.
Incidentally, I was talking about 5940NS not fut. so that is yet to come. but now it seems even 6093 may be exceeded and then as I posted yesterday ........... |
As usual, great call Vinay...!
Appreciate if you can share your thoughts+analysis when nifty was at 5130 and why you decided to go long there...
Nothing seemed to be positive at that time CAD, rupee, syria, political scenario were all pessimistic...why did you think about going long, what was supporting your bullish thoughts.
btw, not much has changed since last week and the underlying market still seems weak...not sure when the bears decide to make a comeback...
Also, please share why do you expect a reversal at 6093..?
Thanks,
Beo |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #221 Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 12:50 pm Post subject: |
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beowulf, you will have to go thru all the posts for a few days before it went to 5130 to find out why I went long. honestly I have forgotten. but mainly it was fundamental reasons except that I remember I had posted about accumulation and persistent +ve div since then.
I don't think "not much has changed" e.g. INR has improved, oil price has fallen, syria has given up its position, a +ve sentiment has come due to Raghu's policies inviting more $ into India, a number of bills have been passed, AND most importantly, growth in US may not as strong as predicted earlier.
Yet, nifty CAN go down again, may be from tmrw. But as of now it seems it may not be lower than 5740/5614 if this rally is yet to unfold. Otherwise, 5250 is also possible.
Also, reg 6093, pl see post repeated yesterday reg likely relation historical between nifty and sun's transit. |
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pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #222 Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 2:19 pm Post subject: |
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Vinay: Al Brooks says find at least 2 reasons to take up a trade!
Today's NF chart so far gives me THREE reasons NOT to trade the Nifty today!
1 Jake Bernstein's book "the compleat day trader" tells us to trade a move beyond the high or low of the first 30 minutes. NF couldnt sustain beyond hi OR lo of 0915-0945!
2 AB says avoid trading barb wire. Most candles today look like barb wire!
3 The 20 ema and the NF worm (5 tf candles) are clinging to each other
++++ low volumes except at 1 oclock
Prakash Holla
Update: Breakout just after I posted the above. What timing! |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #223 Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 2:34 pm Post subject: |
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| apka, premium in calls is now more than that in puts. also, nifty bounced off 20 dma. looks like it will be a "buy on dips" situation. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #224 Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 2:41 pm Post subject: |
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| daily candle may be hanging man if close is <5915>5888. Better to cover longs if so. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #225 Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 2:51 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka, premium in calls is now more than that in puts. also, nifty bounced off 20 dma. looks like it will be a "buy on dips" situation. |
which timeframe??
Edit: I see you meant 200DMA. |
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