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Nifty View - September Series 2013 |
vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #226 Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 2:59 pm Post subject: |
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apka wrote: | vinay28 wrote: | apka, premium in calls is now more than that in puts. also, nifty bounced off 20 dma. looks like it will be a "buy on dips" situation. |
which timeframe??
Edit: I see you meant 200DMA. |
oops sorry. yes 200 dma |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #227 Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:13 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: | daily candle may be hanging man if close is <5915>5888. Better to cover longs if so. |
sold my calls at 5952NF. have a small 5500pe |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #228 Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:22 pm Post subject: |
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a lower low and then a higher high today. |
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rk_a2003 Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010 Posts: 2734
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Post: #229 Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:22 pm Post subject: |
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Sold NF exactly at 5952. |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #230 Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:26 pm Post subject: |
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me too...my timing always falter me by 1-2 days u shall gradually notice...but time has told me to be patient and rational amongst anxiety.. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #231 Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:27 pm Post subject: |
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rk_a2003 wrote: | Sold NF exactly at 5952. |
et tu brute! |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #232 Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:35 pm Post subject: |
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however hard we may find a justification to reject this type of trading,.....but we have to trade...then only "profits"......vertical rise etc....history tells this is top....one can make past analysis and compare...except in 1 occasion i guess of thereabouts, 600-800 nifty points have to give way on downside [min 150-200 points even in case of sideways reaction]....note i am banking on ONE break of support....5860..then 5720 will come......markets are currently targetting inverse H&S, tops trendline resistance etc.. at 5970. i may then sqaure of at 5770-5800 parts.
so i am not bothered till the trade is closed. holding on.........again it becomes reading the market.
Independant TA analysis would not get anybody to buy now...right ...so no Sl at this point...SL is open. |
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rk_a2003 Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010 Posts: 2734
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Post: #233 Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 7:39 pm Post subject: |
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Nifty broke the past 2 resistances with Gap up opnings helped by rupee strengthening.Later it formed a huge green candle followed by a hanging man and I expect some sort of retracement near to second gap up before it attempts any further higer levels. I mean it may retest 5750 levels in the coming days.
Rupee which is dictating the nifty movement in recent past is hovering around 63 ...a strong support; It may rebound to higher levels from here.
This is the thinking behind NF shorting @5950.I could be wrong too.
Last edited by rk_a2003 on Wed Sep 11, 2013 7:56 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #234 Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 7:45 pm Post subject: |
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Nifty for Thursday (12/09/13)
Supports are at about 5865, 5830 and 5810 while resistances are at about 5935, 5985 and 6002. 200/100 dma are at about 5836/5814 while 50wma is also at 5814. The nearest gap on lower side is at 5680. A +WW can give about 5985 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 5883, 5806 and 5720 (once below 5873) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A rising wedge BD can give about 5580 and a rising channel BD can about 5320 in case nifty remains below 5830.
Nifty at last closed above 5900 and above 100/200 dma. It crossed just below 200 dma before bouncing up. But it seems to be tiring out. Hence, a reaction is likely. Also, daily candle is a hanging man, a likely reversal sign. Nifty will have to close above 5914 with a green candle to defeat it. Break of 5815 could be bad but break of 5730 could be very bad. Oil price and INR can play spoilsport any time and will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. Additional tension due to likehood of a US attack on Syria seems to be going away for the moment. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up. |
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aahoo White Belt
Joined: 14 Jan 2012 Posts: 20
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Post: #235 Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 7:51 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: | aahoo wrote: | Flat to positive opening (5946). But end of the day lower(5775). For the next few days I assume market will be range bound. But end of this month it will be 5555.
See extreme volatility this series.
Alternate view: One should not get surprised even if market touches 5973 intra-day tomorrow. This will be followed by gap down opening at 5869. |
any technical basis for the above, aahoo sir? |
Not technical but price movement. |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #236 Posted: Thu Sep 12, 2013 1:27 am Post subject: |
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5 other TA reasons for shorting NIFTY at 5950 (F) (but spot level is resistance) have been just posted by me in Butterfly thread. ( Supporting your argument for your short) |
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apka Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137
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Post: #237 Posted: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:14 am Post subject: |
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Quote: | India's slowing economy and its massive current account and fiscal deficits are not structural problems and can be fixed with modest reforms, newly appointed central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan said on Wednesday. |
surprised at the comment that problem can be fixed with modest reforms. |
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rk_a2003 Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010 Posts: 2734
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Post: #238 Posted: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:26 am Post subject: |
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apka wrote: | Quote: | India's slowing economy and its massive current account and fiscal deficits are not structural problems and can be fixed with modest reforms, newly appointed central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan said on Wednesday. |
surprised at the comment that problem can be fixed with modest reforms. |
This is called intellectual arrogance. Reality will struck him hard .The ‘REFORMS’ issue appears to be super structural at peripheral view, but it could very well be boiled down to structural issue in final analysis at least in Indian context. |
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pkholla Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010 Posts: 2890
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Post: #239 Posted: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:45 am Post subject: |
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rk_a2003 wrote: | apka wrote: | Quote: | India's slowing economy and its massive current account and fiscal deficits are not structural problems and can be fixed with modest reforms, Rajan said . |
surprised at the comment that problem can be fixed with modest reforms. |
This is called intellectual arrogance. |
Past his "use-by date" MMS was in headlines y'day: PM says strong reforms needed! PM rules out subsidized fuel price hike! SIDE BY SIDE FROM SAME PERSON, WHAT SHOULD ONE UNDERSTAND FROM COMMENTS MADE BY THESE COMEDIANS?
Prakash Holla |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #240 Posted: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:48 am Post subject: |
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pkholla wrote: | rk_a2003 wrote: | apka wrote: | Quote: | India's slowing economy and its massive current account and fiscal deficits are not structural problems and can be fixed with modest reforms, Rajan said . |
surprised at the comment that problem can be fixed with modest reforms. |
This is called intellectual arrogance. |
Past his "use-by date" MMS was in headlines y'day: PM says strong reforms needed! PM rules out subsidized fuel price hike! SIDE BY SIDE FROM SAME PERSON, WHAT SHOULD ONE UNDERSTAND FROM COMMENTS MADE BY THESE COMEDIANS?
Prakash Holla |
Raghu may expose how green he is behind the ears! |
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