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Nifty View - September Series 2013 |
vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #31 Posted: Fri Aug 30, 2013 3:21 pm Post subject: |
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discount of 21? |
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apka Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137
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Post: #32 Posted: Fri Aug 30, 2013 3:29 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: | discount of 21? |
this is a tug of war! who will win, FII who are selling or DII buying! unbelievable buying pressure. |
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pkholla Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010 Posts: 2890
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Post: #33 Posted: Fri Aug 30, 2013 3:32 pm Post subject: |
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apka wrote: | RameshRaja had shared his observation from Jan till Aug, all new series when they begin on the day of expiry of previous series, like yesterday sept begin as an example.. all the new series have touched the 593x fut level in all months. So will it do in sept also or not, is the question. |
Apka: You mean that if September series began in August calendar month? then that series will cross 593x? |
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apka Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137
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Post: #34 Posted: Fri Aug 30, 2013 3:39 pm Post subject: |
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pkholla wrote: | apka wrote: | RameshRaja had shared his observation from Jan till Aug, all new series when they begin on the day of expiry of previous series, like yesterday sept begin as an example.. all the new series have touched the 593x fut level in all months. So will it do in sept also or not, is the question. |
Apka: You mean that if September series began in August calendar month? then that series will cross 593x? |
Sept yesterday with Aug expiry day.
All such new series in previous have traded once near 593x.. mainly because our range was on upper side. lets see this time. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #35 Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2013 1:38 pm Post subject: |
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2 consecutive hammers of this kind have never occured on weekly before. |
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rk_a2003 Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010 Posts: 2734
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Post: #36 Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2013 5:04 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: | 2 consecutive hammers of this kind have never occured on weekly before. |
Yes,it's technically a bullish indication.Also indicating how fundamentals are affecting.However, It's going to be a tough battle.
Not going to be an easy ride either way.
One should keep in mind fundamentals are fast eroding for Indian markets. |
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saumya12 Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011 Posts: 1509
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Post: #37 Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2013 5:22 pm Post subject: |
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rk_a2003 wrote: | vinay28 wrote: | 2 consecutive hammers of this kind have never occured on weekly before. |
Yes,it's technically a bullish indication.Also indicating how fundamentals are affecting.However, It's going to be a tough battle.
Not going to be an easy ride either way.
One should keep in mind fundamentals are fast eroding for Indian markets. |
Will NIFTY breaks this TL for the second time.
I do not think so.
As rightly said in the post, fundamentals are not supporting, they are fast eroding. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #38 Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2013 9:00 pm Post subject: |
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bottom fishing happens only when fundamentals are at their nadir worst. Just check accumulation on daily and weekly and +ve div AD too. That does not mean we may not see a new low but I would be buying for medium/long term.
In immediate term, further upmove is possible in case of a close baove 5528. |
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apka Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137
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Post: #39 Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2013 9:20 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: | bottom fishing happens only when fundamentals are at their nadir worst. Just check accumulation on daily and weekly and +ve div AD too. That does not mean we may not see a new low but I would be buying for medium/long term.
In immediate term, further upmove is possible in case of a close baove 5528. |
The only difference being Vinay, that we can't gauge the magnitude of the problem as there is no acknowledgment by the Govt. They still blame it on outside factors, the parliament sessions. Now US economy is improving, still excuses. Then question is where is the fundamentals headed to and where do we stand? We keep seeing dips every month and yet they still say worry unfounded and that we will improve in few months. This alone is scary not that we are falling, or are consolidating at low levels economy-wise.
The bad leadership can escalate the problem to even worse than what it is now. Therefore I don't think it is judge-able that we are at worst. We may well end up in a recession from hereon. It's in july that RBI has taken most of the steps on liquidity, gold etc. So Q2 growth would be even worse.
Unlike $ and Euro which can be reprinted as they are used globally, rupee doesn't have that backing. We will again rely on $ and Euro inflow by way of bonds or something. And at the moment confidence is not shown by Foreign Investors even despite opening up FDI scales in several sectors.
I'm wondering by making most sectors upto 49% open up for FDI, some 75% and 100%.... what when there is another crisis? Put it up 100%? India for Sale? In picture, isn't this bad for our fundamentals, half our earnings won't remain ours.
This is going to be tough to get out off therefore no estimation of where we could go because our own govt doesn't have any idea. Atleast US and Europe knew, acknowledged and acted upon it.
BTW, USDINR currency futures have contracts opened for upto Aug 2014, and value as high as near 73. Is this a normal thing to have so much distance till upto 1 year for currency trades? |
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apka Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137
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Post: #40 Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2013 10:02 pm Post subject: |
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My view on the weekly hammers is, that it is pretentious
LIC, DII are trying to save the Govt's ass, assumingly on the Govt's direction to do so, because if on weekly and monthly charts we close below the longterm trendlines major selling is possible.
I feel near important resistence and supports, such bounces happen and occur. Just like for Titan as example it hit 200 or so when gold curbs were announced, but it held onto the weekly support and bounced proudly... but has again come down.
That's my view, I feel 100% 4900 is going to come in Sept. |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #41 Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2013 12:30 am Post subject: |
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after much analysis, I am of the view [on technicals - ignoring fundamentals] that 5120 was extension wave, and ,market has taken support at 5255 [which should be labelled as bottom of move from 6100] conciding with buttefly targets , A = C etc.
AND WITHOUT TOUCHING 5225 [DOUBLE BOTTOM base] FOR FIRST AND THEn If DOUBLE BOTTOM BREAKS [above 5525] MAY BE 5670-5720.
this is also since market is retracting on up previous legs substantially and retracing down less than 50% [eg: 5465-5120 or 5250 not retracted on friday by more than 50%] - this is classical story after the long downtrend of over 1000 points in NIFTY.
this shall be kept valid with 5255 as last support and 5375 market above shall be confirmation of move to 5525 and then straighway to 5670 [dont thing it shall halt in between].
lets see, so i am 100% sure market won't touch 4900 in Sep [syria + sep 18etc fed etc excluded???]
buying should be WITH HEDGES only considering fiundamentals....and therefore profit limits shall be kept lower....shall suggest BUYING entry at different points next week. |
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apka Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137
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Post: #42 Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2013 1:31 am Post subject: |
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Your expected levels of base and continued upside as per your observed pattern & after your much analysis that you have mentioned, is noted.
But not sure why you went ahead to specifically retort against my view of 100% 4900 in sept because it is away from your base by 355 points. But noted, Amita. |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #43 Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:36 am Post subject: |
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Just to add, the cnx IT seems to have broken above resistance at 8000 (trendline of few months -years broken above)and it gives another leg up....guess reliance is supporting the upmove and "dark horse" ITC shall chip in above 310..
On Nifty and other stock charts, bear trendline resistance is broken above + trendine from 5750 high and 5550 high is also broken above...support at 5375 was at this trendline..maintained
2 H2 bars also there....
5300-5250 are two lows..same level
A "sideways?" 500 point move from 5200 to 5700...(Or 5375-5525)
4900 is H and S target but but but 5200 was major major resistance when this entire bull run started so as mentioned before won't break in a hurry....
(Reasonings drawn from al brooks, supertrend trading,elliot, experience- reading the line, other similar opinion at various forums, logic - retail traders bearish still, etc.)
There can be a 5th wave down to 4900 (or below I don't know) may be later....again events change would determine this...
100 percent was mentioned just to highlight my faith in a contrary opinion ...cheers AMIT |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #44 Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2013 8:25 am Post subject: |
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amitagg, I suggest you start a new thread, say, "nifty with EW by amitagg" since we don't discuss EW in this thread as it is a totally different ball game. That way, distraction will be avoided |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #45 Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2013 9:44 am Post subject: |
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we may see wild swings today |
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